|Har trenden snudd til det posetive
|Nasdaq opp 1,89% i går
Futuren opp i dag.
Det ser ut til at det er generell opptimisme blant folket.
Tror dere dette er starten på en ny trend, og slutten på den negative utviklingen somstartet i august/ septemder.
Det blir som du sier å tro. Men nå mener jeg det blir enklere å se den videre utviklingen.Alt som har vært negativt er lagt inn , opptil 2x for flere av de selskapene som vi vet tjener mye penger.Har en sterk tro på at det blir en rolig(og mest) oppgang de nærmeste ukene. Men er som vanlig engstelig for april.
|Hvor skulle det komme fra? Av alle PW og nedgraderingene av selskapene. Forventninger har vært skyhøye som ikke innfris, siste eks. Nokia. Melding om omsettningsvekst på "bare" 64% fører til kursras!!
2001 kan fort blir verre enn 2000.
|RE. 2001 ?
Det som skjedde i fjor har etter min vurdering skapt en økende usikkerhet hos mange invsetors.På slutten av året ble svie.
I 2000 var det for mange som investerte i noe som man ikke forsto særlig mye av.
Det er derfor oppstått viss flukt fra det mest luftige, som jeg forventer vil fortsette.
Min konklusjon er derfor at ETABLERT VIRKSOMHET MED DOKUMENTERT INNTJENING er å foretrekke i begynnelsen av året.
Personlig synes jeg HYD,DNO og MSL er eksempler på selskaper som tilfredstiller mine krav til inntjening og potensiale (og litt spenning)
Tuesday January 9, 9:15 pm Eastern Time
Morgan Stanley's (Byron Wien's) Predictions
Every year, Byron Wien issues a list of predicted surprises for the next 12 months. While the consensus only assigns a 1-in-3 probability to each of the predictions, Wien thinks each has a 50 percent chance or better of taking place. Here are his predictions for 2001:
1. Fears of legislative gridlock notwithstanding, President Bush forges a surprisingly constructive working relationship with the new Congress. Important legislation passes on health care, education and income-tax reduction. A bipartisan bill to reduce estate taxes to the equivalent of the capital-gains rate passes easily. Bush proves to be a "unifier" after all.
2. The dollar remains surprisingly strong against the yen and the euro as the economies of other major industrialized countries sag unexpectedly in response to the weak economy in the U.S. The yen-dollar exchange ratio reaches 130 yen to $1 and the euro sinks to 0.75 to $1. Germans take to the streets in protest over the unworthy successor of the once-proud deutsche mark. Wim Duisenberg resigns as president of the European Central Bank, and Hans Tietmeyer is called out of retirement to take the helm of the beleaguered institution.
3. Despite the surprising weakness in the global economy, the price of crude oil soars to $40 as the winter proves colder than expected and fuel-source inventories remain thin. OPEC increases production modestly, but strained refining and marketing capacity keeps the price of gasoline and heating oil high, leading to an outcry by consumers and regulatory authorities. Legislators are outraged but confused about what action they should take. There is a Vietnam War-type demonstration at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
4. The Japanese economy slips back into recession even though aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus tries to head it off. The Nikkei 225 declines and threatens to fall below the level of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
5. The U.S. economy dips into outright recession in the first half of 2001. As the unemployment rate moves up toward 5 percent, the Federal Reserve eases aggressively, taking the federal funds rate down by 150 basis points by midyear. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note threaten to pierce 4 percent. Recovery is muted in the second half of 2001 and profit surprises remain skewed toward the downside.
6. Instead of rising 10 percent as the consensus expects, Standard & Poor's 500 earnings decline because of the cost of amortizing capital equipment and servicing debt on modest growth in revenues. The indexes do not have a major rebound, but continue to consolidate and digest the gains of the late 1990s. The S&P 500 is up less than 10 percent after making a new two-year low in the spring.
7. Value outperforms growth in the U.S., and small- and medium-capitalization issues beat large caps. Old-economy stocks do better than new, but at least two household names in American industry agree to mergers to avoid Chapter 11 filings.
8. Consumer electronics and home-improvement retailers become hot stocks in the second half of the year, led by Best Buy, Circuit City, Home Depot and Lowe's.
9. The semiconductor inventory cycle turns up as Federal Reserve easing finally starts to work. New products associated with wireless data and optics begin an important new growth trend. Broadcom, National Semiconductor, Applied Materials and Teradyne have major moves.
10. Causing some hostile comments from his brother Jeb, George W. Bush lifts the embargo on Cuba and allows unlimited travel and investment in the region. This unexpectedly spurs the South Florida economy, and the Bush brothers reconcile at an emotional Thanksgiving celebration. To finance infrastructure projects, Cuba issues government bonds that can be redeemed in local currency or dollars. They become known as Castro convertibles.