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Geo - brennhett for subsea
petterdalen20
03.01.2006 16:34
#1

Endre
Geo er et selskap dannet på bakgrunn av Geoconsult og spesialskipene til DOF. På forsommeren hadde de 10 meget moderne og nye skip. Etter å ha kjøpt flere skip, de siste to i romjulen, er de nå oppe i 16 skip.

Geo signaliserte allerede i sommer at de ville være aggresive ift vekst i subsea-markedet, noe de har bevist i høst. De har i tillegg til skip også kjøpt opp selskapet Century Subsea Ltd. i UK. Dette gir Geo tilgang til enda flere kunder.

De neste ukene ser jeg følgende triggere:
- positive analyser på selskapet (idag er det kun PA og ESO som dekker selskapet
- Geo blir den foretrukne subsea-aktøren både for industrien og investorene på Oslo Børs
- mulig oppkjøp (bli kjøpt opp eller kjøpe opp andre)
- nye kontrakter, det er flere skip som skal på nye kontrakter og disse vil bli knallsterke med det subsea-markedet som er nå. Skipene som Geo kjøpte i romjulen har allerede blitt etterspurt av selskaper melder styreleder i selskapet.

Videre er selskapet priset desidert billigst av subsea-selskapene på Oslo Børs på nøkkeltall.

Ser at Pareto og Enskilda har oppgradert selskapet og kursmålet de siste dagene. Er det noen som kan legge ut analysene/kursmålene?

petterdalen20
03.01.2006 16:48
#2

Endre
Fant denne oppdateringen på Geo fra Pareto:

"Aggressive player in the tightest market in oil service - Large, modern fleet - Expect further expansion - Target lifted to NOK 45, BUY
• We consider the subsea market to be the tightest market in oil service.
• Geo is different. With a strong foot-hold in survey and light construction, they seek to expand.
• Geo has together with Solstad Offshore the most modern fleet in its industry.
• The company will continue to seek aggressive growth both within assets, services and geographical reach.
• Since inception in May, Geo has so far:

1) Acquired 3 vessels
2) Ordered 7 high-end ROVs
3) Expanded its service scope by acquiring Century Subsea. The acquisition is accretive at 5.3x EBIT 06E and will secure necessary software & impressive references.
4) Expanded its geographical reach by establishing Geo Subsea with offices in Singapore and Perth.

• There will be more deals and they will be accretive.
• Approximately 60% of 06E revenues fixed as of today.
• Healthy leverage with YE06E NIBD/EV of 36%.
• We find Geo to be very favorably priced at 7.3x 06E EBITDA and 8.5x 06E EPS.
• Cheaper on multiples than its larger peers, who have old assets and high re-investment requirements going forward.
• Recommendation BUY, target raised to NOK 45 (NOK 40).



GEO with accretive acquisition of two cable vessels at ~5x 06E EBITDA
Geo has acquired two Japanese cable vessels for a total of $50m or ~5x annualized 06E EBITDA. The vessels are relatively new, built in 1998 and 2000 respectively, and ready to join the Geo fleet already in late January.

The vessels are uncommitted, but management reports of great interest for hiring the vessels. We estimate average day rate of ~NOK 300,000, but they could easily achieve more. Management reports that “the larger vessel can achieve rates higher than any other Geo vessel if equipped with ROVs at NOKm 70 per system,” i.e. close to NOK 500,000 per day!

Assuming no ROVs, the vessels will generate s combined annual EBITDA of NOKm 70, leaving the acquisition at 4.8x EV/EBITDA, a very favorable price. For comparison, Geo is trading at 7.7x 06E EBITDA (including new vessels). As opposed to order a newbuild, Geo will now have two vessels ready to join the fleet within a month.

06E EBITDA to NOKm 635 (from NOKm 569), 06E EPS to NOK 4.0 (from 3.7). We find the Geo share to be priced very favorably, trading at 7.7x 06E EBITDA and 8.4x 06E EPS.

We repeat our BUY recommendation, target NOK 45."
Corinthian
10.01.2006 11:38
#3409

Endre
Direktøren ville visst ikke mer og kom ikke på jobb i dag.



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