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Oljeprisen
dow
26.01.2012 21:44
#11604

Endre
Oljeprisen har gått 50 gangern siste 40 år , så hvorfor ikke 10 gangern fra her så lenge det skjer over mange år. Som sagt så er det når stigningen blir for kjapp vi ikke klarer å absorbere det.
OldNick
26.01.2012 21:54
#12921

Endre
10-gangern og 20-gangers kommer prisen helt sikkert til å gå, det kommer bare til å skje over mange nok år.

Spørsmålet er hvor mye realprisen stiger?

Problemet nå er:

- Det er vanskelig å øke produksjonen (for første gang i historien, IEA ser ikke for seg at oljeproduksjonen skal nå mer enn 100 mill fpd de neste 25 år)

- Og effektiviseringen greier ikke å holde unna for økt etterspørsel fra de 5 mrd. som ikke er i middelklassen pr idag, hvorav mange (helt sikkert de fleste) ønsker seg dit. (Det finnes fysiske grenser for effektiviseringen - sjekk termodynamikkens 2.lov)

- Det vil gjøre at mange av de potensielle etterspørrerne ikke blir tilfredstilt.

- Spørsmålet for oss i den "rike" delen av verden, hvor mange av oss vil måtte tre ut av køen til fordel fra kunder i den "fattige" delen av verden? Fler og fler vil jeg tro.
gkjel
26.01.2012 22:31
#4652

Endre
re OldNick

Poenget mitt er at jeg tror økonomene ikke tar hensyn til den viktigste tilbudssidefaktoren i økonomisk vekst, nemlig naturressurser. De tror at dette bare er et spørsmål om at det løser seg når prisen går opp.

Det er som du skriver bare mulig dersom man ser bort fra termodynamikkens lover.

Endret 26.01.2012 22:31 av gkjel
dow
26.01.2012 22:42
#11605

Endre
For noen år siden var 85 mill fat peak, nå er det 100? Skjønner ikke helt hva du mener med "potensielle etterspørrerne ikke blir tilfredstilt". Snakker du da om rasjonering eller at de ikke har råd til å betale? Når det gjelder den "rike" delen av verden så er den kanskje ikke så rik som vi inbiller oss. ref soverignkrise så det er naturlig at vi får mindre del av totalt kvantum. Diskusjonen var imidlertid: Vil flytrafikken få en varig nedgang så man defor bør la være å kjøpe nye fly?
OldNick
26.01.2012 23:07
#12922

Endre
re. dow,

- Vi/jeg vet ikke hva peak blir, det jeg snakket om var et IEA-estimat.
- Prisen vil rasjonere etterspørselen, og jeg tror Europa vil slite i den konkurransen
- For den nære fremtid (10 år frem eller så) vil flytrafikken fortsette å øke, jeg tror ikke på noe negativt tilbudssjokk utenom en omfattende krigssituasjon i Midt-Østen.

re. gkjel,

nei jeg trodde ikke du mente det bokstavelig, det var bare så morsomt skrevet...
______

Will Israel Attack Iran?

Lang NYTimes-artikkel fra en "Israel-politics insider"

Han tror svaret er ja, i løpet av 2012.

Endret 26.01.2012 23:08 av OldNick
OldNick
26.01.2012 23:08
#12923

Endre
Eight areas to watch on China in the year of the Dragon

By Calvin Lee, Platts blog
Jan. 26, 2012

Utdrag:
It's the Lunar New Year in China, which marks the start of the zodiac Year of the Dragon. And 2012 will be another year that the world will again focus on China and actions to be taken by world's second largest oil consumer.

So given the importance of the number eight in Chinese culture, here are eight areas of focus for China's energy demand for 2012.

1. Demand...that' needs to be dealt with first. China's crude imports in 2011 were 253.78 million mt or 5.1 million b/d (using a conversion of 1 mt=7.33 barrels), an increase of 6.1% over the quantity imported in 2010. How will crude imports fare in 2012?

Still growing, of course. There are some analysts out there who said that China's oil demand has softened and will continue to soften. Well, look closer at the numbers: Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong forecasts that China's oil demand will grow 5.3% year-on-year in 2012 to 10 million b/d; Deutsche Bank expects China's oil demand to expand 6.3% this year to 10.1 million b/d; CLSA in Hong Kong expects China's oil demand this year to increase 5% over last year. (For the latest Platts' numbers, see here.)

Compare these numbers with for the Western economies. Oil demand in North America and most of Europe is expected to record zero or negative growth this year. Slowing Chinese oil demand growth, you say?

2. According to Deutsche Bank, China will add 710,000 b/d in crude distillation capacity this year, excluding capacity additions to teapot refineries. That's more than double what was brought online in 2011. Growth in crude oil imports this year will be driven by the imperative to maintain operational inventory levels in line with refinery expansions in 2012. Deutsche Bank proejcts that this will increase crude imports by 35,000 b/d, year on year.

Crude import growth also will be driven by stockpiling needs by the country for its SPR, which will boost imports by another 50,000 b/d over last year. All in all, Deutsche Bank expects China's crude oil imports to expand by 500,000-550,000 b/d over last year's levels.

3. China's teapot refineries are not allocated crude oil import quotas by the central government and must resort to importing straight run fuel oil for secondary cracking to produce gasoline and diesel. Just this month alone, Singapore's fuel oil prices have skyrocketed due to a shortage of fuel oil in the Eastern hemisphere. The reason? China has been soaking up large quantities of straight run and this has left Singapore with little of the blendstock for poorer quality residual fuel from other countries.

That's likely to be the same trend for 2012, as the world will have less residual fuel with the addition of new coking capacity globally that results in more light ends output, but less fuel oil.

6. The pilot price mechanism that the government is trying out in Guangdong and Guangxi has ignited hopes for a vibrant unconventional gas industry in China, particularly for shale gas. With China tipped to hold twice the amount of shale gas than the US, investors will be pleased to learn that the if the trials in Guangdong and Guangxi proved to be successful, higher natural gas prices will benefit shale gas development as local shale gas prices are tied to natural gas prices.

8. This is one of the boldest predictions out there, but by far the most interesting. The past few years have seen Chinese state-controlled oil majors bidding for various assets globally, and in 2012, there is a good chance that the one of the three Chinese oil conglomerates will bid for a privately-owned solar company.
gkjel
27.01.2012 09:22
#4653

Endre
re dow

Spørsmålet er som du påpeker hvorvidt det er smart å kjøpe nye fly med levering om 5 år. Etter mitt syn er ikke disse noen utpregede langdistansefly. En framtidig økt pris på flybensin vil helt klart påvirke dette markedet. Jeg ser her bort fra økte avgifter, selv om det burde være et spørsmål hvor lenge bransjen skal få drivstoffet avgiftsfritt.

Korte distanser vil med økt pris favorisere turbopropfly siden disse er mye mer drivstoffvennlig. Langdistansefly bruker mindre drivstoff(på grunn av mindre oksygen). Det er ved avgang og landing drivstofforbruket er størst på vanlige jetfly.
Når disse nye flyene skal innfases om 5 år kan det derfor bli et spørsmål om annenhåndsverdiene av disse brukte flyene. Det er jo disse som skal finansiere mye av kjøpesummen.

Jeg er som du forstår svært skeptisk til resonnementet i DN i går om at turisttrafikken er mindre påvirket av økte priser. Jeg tror langdistanse med forretningsreiser vil bli mindre påvirket, men disse er nok i mindretall i dag.
OldNick
27.01.2012 21:26
#12926

Endre
He?

Skulle det ikke være andre veien?

Iran boikotter Europa? Ikke Europa boikotter Iran?

Revenge for EU Sanctions

Iran Set to Turn Off Oil Supply to Europe

der Spiegel
01/26/2012


The European Union embargo on Iranian oil will only come into effect in six months, but the leadership in Tehran wants to act first: Exports to Europe are set to be halted immediately. It is a move which could mean added difficulties for struggling economies in southern Europe.

Forslaget presenteres for parlamentet i neste uke.

Iran er offensive, China tar nok ekstra olje, de har lager klare for oppfylling.

De har problemer med Sudansk olje, som de er største kjøper av.

Endret 27.01.2012 21:27 av OldNick
blink
29.01.2012 11:59
#21882

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IAEA besøker Iran i dag
OldNick
29.01.2012 21:33
#12934

Endre
Iransk sabelrasling hever oljeprisen

Irans trussel om å stanse eksporten av olje til EU kan heve oljeprisen til 130 dollar fatet, tror norsk oljeanalytiker.

NTB, E24.no
29.01.2012


Å spå hvor høyt oljeprisen kan gå, er en lek for barn.

Men, som analytiker er frk. Saltvedt nødt, vil jeg tro.

Uansett, hun har vokst med jobben og har stadig mer detaljinnsikt i feltet, det skal hun ha.

Uansett, høyt politisk spill om oljen og oljeleveranser er uheldig, både for oljemarkedet på sikt, og verdensøkonomien.
blink
29.01.2012 21:48
#21885

Endre
OldN..

Enig.
Det er bare surrehoder som tror de kan forutsi oljeprisen når det utløses internasjonale konflikter med Iran, US og Israel involvert.
OldNick
01.02.2012 19:15
#12946

Endre
Peak Oil biter for Exxon?

Exxon narrowly beats, but production falls short

By Ernest Scheyder and Braden Reddall (Reuters)
Jan. 31, 2012

Exxon Mobil Corp reported quarterly earnings that narrowly beat expectations, on higher oil prices and asset sales of about $1 billion, but the company's shares dropped nearly 2 percent as its oil and gas production fell short of estimates.

Exxon, the world's largest publicly traded oil company, said fourth-quarter production dropped 9 percent, which Barclays Capital analyst Paul Cheng found "disappointing" even after accounting for reduced European natural gas sales due to warm weather.

"There's no strong evidence that the portfolio is delivering the capability to grow and frankly, based on our preliminary take, it looks like costs are going the wrong way," said Mark Gilman, analyst at The Benchmark Company. "There's not a lot to smile about."

While 2011 output rose 1 percent, this was all natural gas as the production of more lucrative liquids declined. Plus, Exxon's capital expenditures rose to a record $36.8 billion, the top of the range of its multi-year forecast, and oilfield spending generally is expected to increase further this year.

"We are in a capex mode now and have been for the last year or two, and will for the next couple years be investing in large legacy projects," Exxon spokesman David Rosenthal told analysts on a conference call.

Spending billions just to maintain steady output has become the norm for the world's top oil companies. Chevron Corp increased its 2012 capital spending plans to $32.7 billion after its 2011 budget came in $3 billion higher than originally expected.

Yet in spite of weak U.S. natural gas prices, Irving, Texas-based Exxon has not curtailed domestic gas production, even if it is shifting rigs to basins with more liquids.

Exxon posted fourth-quarter net income of $9.4 billion, or $1.97 per share, compared with $9.25 billion, or $1.85 per share, in the year-ago period. Analysts, on average, had expected $1.96 per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts lowered their expectations by a few cents in the past week.

The quarterly profit was Exxon's lowest for 2011.

Mer på link
OldNick
01.02.2012 19:28
#12947

Endre
Oppdatering om Peak Oil

Oil Crunch Report from Australia




Fra IEA 2011 WEO

Peak konvensjonell ble passert i 2006?

Vil vi allikevel finne og få utviklet "fields yet to find"? i tide?

Endret 01.02.2012 19:34 av OldNick
Fanatic
01.02.2012 20:22
#23237

Endre
The wedge of hope.
motbedreviten
01.02.2012 20:22
#2232

Endre
Bilde over viser bl a at

crude oil fra currently producing fields faller med ca 2Mb\d hvert år.

.
Buckfinder
01.02.2012 21:45
#3563

Endre
Jeg trodde potensialet for Unconventional oil var en god del større enn grafen over viser ? Noen med innsikt i dette ?
OldNick
02.02.2012 09:31
#12948

Endre
Vi har alle oppfattet at det har vært en hard miljøkamp om utviklingen av oljesand-ressurser i Alberta.

Industrien har hatt alle de store internasjonale organisasjonene, samt noen viktige, lokale organisasjoner mot seg.

Hva mange har lurt på, og som det har versert rykter om, er hvem som har finansiert kampanjene.

Nå har det blitt offentliggjort dokumenter som viser at Rockefeller familien er blant de som har stått bak kampanjene.

I den siste tiden (året) er det rørledninger fra Alberta som har vært i fokus, prosjekter som er tvingende nødvendig å få gjort i løpet av noen år, skal industrien kunne fortsette å vokse.

I fjor søkte rørledningsselskapet TransCanada å få bygd en 2700 km lang fra Edmonton til Texas og USA's mange raffinerier der, men Obama valgte å utsette avgjørelsen til etter valget til høsten.

Det trigget Canada's andre, store rørledningsselskap Enbridge å gjenoppta sine gamle planer å bygge en kortere ledning vest over the Rockies til BC's Stillehavskyst, med formål å laste på tankskip for eksport, primært til Asia.

Ezra Levant looks at how the Rockefeller Foundation is yet another foreign source of funds for those hoping to stall the pipeline process (15 min video)

Men, Canadiske myndigheter er klar over situasjonen, og det fikk Steven Harpers råvare minister Joe Oliver til tidlig i Januar å publisere et åpent brev i pressen hvor han korrekt karakteriserer disse organisasjonene og den undergravende aktivitetene de bedriver:

Gloves come off in another oil sands pipeline battle

Utdrag:
Canada's natural resources minister Joe Oliver released an "open letter" Monday, the eve of public hearings on Enbridge Inc.'s proposed pipeline, that seeks to discredit activists he accuses of blocking efforts to open up new markets.

Oliver, blasting "environmental and other radical groups," writes:

These groups threaten to hijack our regulatory system to achieve their radical ideological agenda. They seek to exploit any loophole they can find, stacking public hearings with bodies to ensure that delays kill good projects. They use funding from foreign special interest groups to undermine Canada's national economic interest. They attract jet-setting celebrities with some of the largest personal carbon footprints in the world to lecture Canadians not to develop our natural resources. Finally, if all other avenues have failed, they will take a quintessential American approach: sue everyone and anyone to delay the project even further. They do this because they know it can work. It works because it helps them to achieve their ultimate objective: delay a project to the point it becomes economically unviable.


Senere - i Davos, snakket statsminister Harper om sin visjon for Canada fremover.

Prime Minister Harper unveils grand plan to reshape Canada

Joe Friesen and Bill Curry, Globe and Mail
Jan. 26, 2012


Så, hvis noen noengang har vært i tvil, Canada og de konservative (som fikk majoritet i parlamentet siste valg) stiller seg 110% bak oljesand utviklingen i Alberta.

Så, fra deres side viser de at det er politisk sikkert å investere i disse ressursene.

Ikke uventet, men verden trenger å bli minnet om dette fra tid til annen slik at det ikke skal være noen tvil.

Oljesandressursene er både Alberta og Canada's fremtid, en ressurs som vil vare flere århundrer fremover, lenge etterat de fleste land har sett sine fossile ressurser oppbrukt.

Hadde vi enda sett slike statsmenn i Norge. Men nei, ingen i sikte i dagens politiske landskap.

Endret 02.02.2012 09:41 av OldNick
gkjel
04.02.2012 17:41
#4657

Endre
Energy Outlook 2030 BP

BP er svært optimistiske mht. fornybar energi. Men de salderer vel bare.
OldNick
05.02.2012 15:22
#12957

Endre
mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL5E8D21MX20120202?irpc=932

UPDATE 2-Rosneft, Gazprom pump Russian oil output to record

Thu Feb 2, 2012 6:34am EST
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* Gazprom's condensate production jumps 10 pct

* January output at 10.36 mln bpd vs 10.32 mln bpd in Dec

* Daily gas production edged up to 2.04 bcm from 2.03 bcm (Adds detail, analyst comment)

By Vladimir Soldatkin

MOSCOW, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Oil output from Russia, the world's biggest producer, hit a record high last month thanks to higher pumping rates at Rosneft and Gazprom.

Oil production growth in Russia, which is expected to flatten in coming years, again surprised analysts on the upside as it hit a post-Soviet record monthly high of 10.36 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, the Energy Ministry said on Thursday.

This was up from 10.32 million bpd in December. The previous monthly record in oil production of 10.34 million bpd was reached in November and October.

Overall daily natural gas production edged up to 2.04 billion cubic metres (bcm) last month from 2.03 bcm in December, while gas production at Gazprom stood at 1.56 bcm a day in January comparing to 1.55 bcm in the previous month.

mer på link.

Det begynner å nærme seg Colin Campbell's estimat fra snart 10 år tilbake på 10.5 mfpd for russisk oljeprod.

Det samtidig med at China's apetitt bare vokser.

CNPC sees China's 2012 net crude imports at 266 mil mt, output at 220 mil mt
http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/NaturalGas/7133847




Singapore (Platts)--3Feb2012/1257 am EST/557 GMT


China's net crude oil imports are expected to reach 266 million mt (5.34 million b/d) this year, with the rate of increase in crude imports forecast to exceed that of refined products, state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. said in a company newsletter.

The country's crude oil production this year is forecast to hit 220 million mt (4.41 million b/d), while refined products output will reach 280 million mt, which would be more than 5% higher year on year, according to the report published Thursday.

The company did not provide comparative figures for crude imports for 2011 and refined products.

Data released by China's General Administration of Customs last week showed that the country's net crude imports for 2011 were 250.01 million mt (5.02 million b/d), up 5.8% year on year. Net refined product imports climbed 36% year on year to 14.9 million mt in 2011, according to the data.

CNPC's forecast implies that net crude imports are expected to rise 6.4% year on year in 2012. While the growth would be slightly higher than the 5.8% rate last year, it will be sharply lower than growth of 18.9% in 2010 and 13.7% in 2009.
OldNick
05.02.2012 15:47
#12958

Endre
EIA: This Week In Petroleum - Summary


Released: February 1, 2012
Next Release: February 8, 2012

The Short-Term Outlook for Non-OPEC Production Growth

Markets often focus on anticipated crude oil production from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as a key driver of supply/demand tightness. Such attention is particularly understandable now, given the return of Libyan production, reports of record-high Saudi production, mixed news from Iraq (strong production growth recently and projections of more to come, tempered by political uncertainty), and now further sanctions against Iran by the United States and other countries. However, crude and liquid fuels production (crude oil, lease condensates, natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains) in countries outside of the OPEC accounts for most of the world's production (59 percent in 2011), making prospects for non-OPEC production critical to the outlook for world oil markets.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts non-OPEC crude and liquid fuels production to grow by 0.9 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, followed by growth of 0.8 million bbl/d in 2013. Taking account of projected growth in the supply of crude and liquid fuels from both OPEC and non-OPEC suppliers, EIA anticipates the recent tightening of world oil markets will moderate somewhat in 2012, as the projected growth in supply outpaces the anticipated growth in demand. Total crude and liquid fuels production in 2012 is expected to grow by about 1.4 million bbl/d and projected demand will increase by about 1.3 million bbl/d. This easing is expected to be relatively short-lived, however, as projected consumption growth of about 1.5 million bbl/d in 2013 significantly outpaces non-OPEC supply growth in that year.

The significant forecast growth in non-OPEC crude and liquid fuels production over the next two years represents an uptick from the slower rate of growth projected in previous forecasts during 2011. The modest production increase of just 90,000 bbl/d estimated for 2011 now appears to have been a temporary dip in non-OPEC crude and liquid fuels production growth.

Because non-OPEC countries account for so much production, non-OPEC crude and liquid fuels production growth is a major source of uncertainty surrounding the outlook for oil prices, as discussed in the EIA STEO. In recent years, initial forecasts of non-OPEC production have often missed the mark by a considerable margin. These revisions have reflected inherently unpredictable events such as supply disruptions, shut-ins, and technical difficulties (such as those experienced in Syria, Yemen, and Azerbaijan), as well as the effects of better-than-expected recovery rates (as in the case of Kazakhstan) and higher-than-expected decline rates (such as in the North Sea).

Non-OPEC production growth for 2012 and 2013 should be very much dominated by the Western Hemisphere (see Figure 1), where production also grew in 2011. U.S., Canadian, and Brazilian supplies continue to expand, more than offsetting continued, albeit relatively modest, declines in Mexico. Each of the three former countries is expected to show growth of between close to 325,000 bbl/d and 340,000 bbl/d over the two-year forecast period. Other non-OPEC countries expected to show production growth include China and Kazakhstan, each of which EIA expects to show production growth between 220,000 bbl/d and 250,000 bbl/d over the next two years.
blink
05.02.2012 16:21
#21926

Endre
Brent-olja stoppet på 114,67 $ før helga

(trykk : Commod-BRENT-line-5 min)

Teknisk sett synes det som at Brent-olja har "brutt opp" fra fallende trend, som har vart 8-9 mnd.

Viser best når man ser på Day-chartet som går ett år tilbake i tid

Endret 05.02.2012 16:29 av blink
Verbier
05.02.2012 16:46
#2042

Endre
Korrekt det blink. Brent oljen vil nå få økt interesse fra teknisk baserte råvare investorer.
OldNick
06.02.2012 01:28
#12959

Endre
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/venezuelas-oil-exports-us-decline-150038661.html

Hugo Chavez og V. eksporterer stadig mindre olje.

Et spørsmål er: Når er han blakk, og må øke drivstoffprisene?

Får vi en ny oppstand som fjerner han og regjeringen?

Det er synd et så ressursrikt land skal være så lutfattig...
OldNick
06.02.2012 02:11
#12960

Endre
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/families-worry-rig-tragedy-being-swept-away/452271.html#ixzz1lLbm4lsb

Lang Artikkel om

Kolskaya offshore oil-drilling platform sank in the frozen waters of the Sea of Okhotsk some 11,000 kilometers from Moscow Dec-18, 2011
OldNick
06.02.2012 21:26
#12962

Endre
Det rapporteres om betydelig militær aktivitet på og rundt den arabiske halvøy, antageligvis forberedelser for en eller annen form for militær aksjon mot Iran og/eller Syria.

Er det dette oljeprisen reagerer på?

Obs! DEBKAfile er kjent for å være spekulative.

Americans talk about an Israeli strike on Iran, but prepare own offensive

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
Feb. 4, 2012

Utdrag:
US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has been outspoken about a possible Israeli offensive against Iran taking place as of April and one American TV channel theorized simplistically Friday, Feb. 3, about Israel's tactics. At the same time, no US source is leveling on the far more extensive American, Saudi, British, French and Gulf states' preparations going forward for an offensive against the Islamic Republic.

Tehran too is gearing up for conflict: The Iranian Guards Ground Forces chief Brig. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour Saturday, Feb. 4 announced the start of a three-week exercise in southern Iran and the Strait of Hormuz under conditions of war. debkafile: The "exercise" is in fact an Iranian military buildup ahead of a possible American or Israel attack.

Our military sources report that the Saudis this week wound up their own intensive preparations for war. Large forces are now deployed around Saudi oil fields, pipelines and export facilities in the eastern provinces opposite the Persian Gulf, backed by anti-missile Patriot PAC-3 batteries. American, British and French fighter-bombers have been landing at Saudi air bases to safeguard the capital, Riyadh.

Israel has accelerated, expanded and focused its military drill regimen for the coming conflict. Tuesday, Jan. 31, a division-scale exercise practiced the drafting of reservists under projected heavy missile bombardment of military bases, induction centers, national highways and towns from at least three directions: Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, as well as Iran.

Thursday, Feb. 2, Military Intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. Avivi Kochavi disclosed that 200,000 missiles and rockets, including thousands of long-range projectiles, were currently pointed at Israel, the only country in the world facing a threat on this scale.

Endret 06.02.2012 21:26 av OldNick



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