|Uran - et gigantisk bull marked
|Ønsker å starte en ny tråd hvor vi kan diskutere uran og
selskaper som opererer i denne bransjen. Når vi ser tilbake
på 2006 kan vi konstatere at prisen på uran har dobblet seg
ifra ca 35 dollar pr. pund til 72 dollar i dag. Hvis vi går tilbake
til 2001 så har prisen 10-dobblet seg. Det er ingetting som tyder på at denne trenden ikke vil fortsette ,prisen på uran drives i været av store planlagte utbygginger av kjernekraft i
blant annet Kina , India og USA. De som investerte i uran-aksjer ved årtusenskiftet har hatt en fantastisk avkastning.
Jeg tror at prisen på uran kan nå 200 dollar innen 2010 ,og at det fortsatt er mulig å oppnå meget god avkastning ved
selektiv aksjeplukking innenfor dette segmentet.
Bare i Canada finnes det ca 400 selskaper som driver med
exploration av uran. De fleste av disse er det ikke verdt å satse 10 dollar på , her gjelder det å være selektiv og fremfor alt se etter godt management. Vil trekke frem Ditem som et
selskap som kan være verdt å sjekke ut, selv om kursen
har steget med 600% i 2006 så har selskapet en markedsverdi på kun 12 m cad og med noen svært lovende
prosjekter under utforskning,
Selskapet ledes av den tidl gruveministeren for Quebec som
grunnet sine gode kontakter innen bransjen har klart å samle
en meget interessant portefølge av land. Vil understreke at
en investering her selvfølgelig har en viss risiko , men dertil
er oppsiden meget stor.
Finnes selvfølgelig større og tryggere selskaper som allerede
har en etablert produksjon , disse er også veldig interessante
pga prisutv. for uran. Skal legge ut noen artikler fra Canadisk
media som omtaler markedet for uran og noen om Ditem
|Profiting From the Next Phase of the Uranium Bull Market
By Marin Katusa
11 Jan 2007 at 04:01 PM EST
STOWE, Vt. (Casey Research Advertorial) -- With the spot price of uranium appreciating by 927% over the last 6 years, there’s little question the easy money in the sector has been made. If, however, you pick your investments closely, there is a lot of upside remaining in the uranium bull market.
The uranium bull has come about due to the simple fundamentals of supply and demand, exacerbated by a global resurgence of interest in nuclear power as a mass energy solution. A resurgence helped by widespread concerns over global warming: unlike carbon-based fuels, nuclear emits no greenhouse gas.
In fast growing economies such as India and China, debate over the role of nuclear energy in providing mass power is effectively over: there are no other realistic alternatives to provide desperately needed baseload power. That explains why, in Asia alone, 57 new nuclear power plants are projected by 2015, a feverish pace. For these countries, nuclear is not just an option, but an imperative.
A corresponding growth in demand for uranium fuel is inevitable, but that demand only makes a bad situation worse, with new mine supplies already running about 40% behind demand. That deficit largely explains why uranium has skyrocketed in recent years, moving from just over $7 in January of 2001, to over $72 today.
Until relatively recently, there has been only one way to profit from this opportunity; by investing in companies involved in uranium production, processing or exploration. If you were in on the trend early, it was like the proverbial shooting fish in a barrel. Big fish.
Before the recent mania, back in October of 1998, Doug Casey was a lone voice in the woods when he issued a 16-page special report for subscribers detailing the reasons uranium was a screaming buy. At that time, you could count the number of junior uranium explorers on two hands. Many of his readers literally made fortunes from the small universe of stocks he brought to their attention (to provide just one example, his lead recommendation, Paladin, subsequently appreciated by over 3,000%, turning $10,000 into $300,000).
But that was then, and this is now. Today, interest in uranium has exploded and, as you would imagine, the market has become flooded with freshly-minted “uranium explorers”… close to 400 companies at last count. Make no mistake, the vast majority are nothing more than overpriced, over-hyped shells with little more in the way of assets than mildly radioactive moose pasture and aggressive corporate promoters who know how to spin a good story.
Put another way, the initial, “easy money” phase of this play is over. If you’re looking to profit from rising uranium prices going forward – and we are convinced they will continue to rise – you’ll have to pay a lot more attention to your securities selection. We’ll discuss some of the key criteria to consider on that front momentarily, but first a quick look at the uranium spot price.
Where Is the Spot Price Going?
To understand where the spot price is headed you first have to understand the purchasers and their roles. The primary purchasers of uranium are nuclear power utilities. Historically, they have contracted for fuel for a set period of time, stockpiling when they grew convinced that prices would be rising.
There is, however, a relatively new secondary market that has developed, devoted to buying and holding the metal itself. Funds such as the Uranium Participation Corporation effectively stockpile uranium, with the full intent of selling it later to the nuclear industry at substantially higher prices. These organizations have served to provide a baseline of support for the spot price of uranium between buying cycles. It’s an important role, because higher prices provide the incentive for companies to navigate the many geological, engineering and, most importantly, political challenges required to bring a new deposit to market, a process conservatively estimated to take between 10 and 20 years.
One important point to understand about uranium is that, unlike oil and gas, higher spot prices trigger no consumer protests, or Washington hearing complete with grandstanding politicos trying to “protect” their constituents from the greedy price-gougers, a nearly monthly affair for oil and gas executives. The reason is that the amount of uranium used in creating nuclear power makes it a relatively minor component in the overall cost. A double in oil’s spot price would result in energy cost increases of 40% or more for oil-based power generation plants and send the cost of gasoline at the pump soaring. A double in the spot price of uranium, however, would result in a mere 5% increase in the cost of electricity from a nuclear power plant. That’s why you haven’t heard anyone complain about the 927% price increase in uranium since 2001. Indeed, uranium could trade at $200 per pound and the utilities would hardly blink.
In sum, uranium is still cheap by any measure, including: what the market is willing (and able) to pay, prior highs and supply/demand ratios. Speaking of prior highs, in inflation adjusted terms, the price of uranium has been as much as 70% higher than it is today, a price level we see being taken out in this cycle.
Profiting From the Second Phase of the Uranium Bull Market
If you’re looking strictly to ride the rising tide, stick with a fund such as the Uranium Participation Corporation, as that will appreciate pretty much 1:1 with the spot price, less holding and management fees, of course.
If, however, you are looking at getting (much) more bang for your uranium buck, then you’ll want to look to get positioned in a portfolio of carefully selected junior uranium stocks.
As the Casey Uranium Index (CUI) below shows, juniors can widely outperform the spot price of uranium alone.
|The secret to finding winning uranium stocks? Start by aligning yourself with high-quality management teams with proven uranium expertise. A surprising number of companies now claiming uranium expertise have little to no on-staff experience with this specialized metal. While it is hard to find one that has not already had extreme appreciation, look for “early mover” companies - those which were actively acquiring projects before uranium became the flavour-of-the-day. They are most likely to be sitting on the most prospective concessions, in the best geological and political settings.
Finally, look for companies that are actually doing the hard work necessary to prove-up their resources, because verified pounds in the ground will be, for most of these companies, the trigger that gets them taken over – at much higher prices -- by a larger company with the specific skill sets to move the project into production.
And make no mistake, finding an economic uranium deposit, then bringing it to market is a Herculean task – far harder and more complex than, say, a gold or silver deposit, and even those are challenging in the extreme. Consequently, it is hard to overly stress the importance of investing with a proven management team; of the nearly 400 uranium companies fighting over your investment dollars, only a handful actually are worthy. Caution is the keyword.
During this second phase of the cycle, the uranium price is headed to $100, then $200. As the market matures and investors become more informed about uranium, the pretenders will be exposed and the contenders, those working hard to prove-up economic deposits, will be rewarded. Getting positioned today will still get you in ahead of the crowd, but don’t be in a rush, and don’t make the mistake of jumping into a pretender that has already had a big run up on nothing more than hype.
Copyright © Casey Research 2007
|Uranium and Uranium Stocks Top Performers of 2006
By Jon A. Nones
27 Dec 2006 at 06:16 PM EST
St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- From President George W. Bush’s push to ramp up the country’s nuclear industry to Asia’s growing uranium demand to the catastrophic disaster at Cigar Lake, yellowcake has seen an extremely bullish year. And analysts are calling for an even better year in 2007.
Uranium began the year at about $36.25/lb. Today’s weekly price is $72.00/lb, showing a yearly gain of 98%! Compared to the entire metals complex, only zinc and nickel had better years with gains of 123% and 161%, respectively.
In a recent analysis, Scotiabank Vice President, Industry and Commodity Market Research Patricia Mohr said uranium “and will likely be the top performer in 2007” as the global market moves toward more nuclear power generation.
Mohr forecast uranium prices to average $80 a pound next year, possibly ending the year close to $90. This year’s average is roughly $48.10 thus far.
“The current upswing in uranium prices represents a 'secular,' transformational change in global energy markets, related partly to a shift by utilities from high-priced fossil fuels, rather than a ‘cyclical’ upswing,” she said.
Mohr said that international utilities are currently seeking 60 million pounds of term commitments from miners. However, about 440 reactors require about 154 million pounds of uranium from mines and stockpiles each year, and the stockpile of uranium that resulted from the disassembling of nuclear weapons by the Soviet Union is rapidly dwindling.
“While exploration activity has surged for uranium - across Canada, Australia, Africa and in Kazakhstan - there has been little improvement in mine production,” she said.
According data by the Uranium Information Centre, mines only supplied roughly 48,000 tonnes of uranium last year and the rest was covered by inventories.
Mohr suggested actual mine output probably dropped this year, and technical difficulties may limit gains next year.
Cameco’s Cigar Lake would have been “the first big increase in global supply in many years,” ramping up production to 18 million pounds per year, said Mohr. But the catastrophic flood at the underground mine will delay shipments until at least 2008.
In a recent newsletter to subscribers, Jay Taylor, Editor of J Taylor's Energy & Energy Tech Stocks and J Taylor’s Gold and Technology Stocks, said there are no significant new supplies of uranium scheduled to come online until 2010, “but by then there will be new nuclear power plants hungry for additional sources of uranium.”
Currently, there are 28 reactors under construction around the world and another 62 being planned. Japan intends to add 11 more by the year 2010 and China hopes to add 24 to 30 by 2020.
Taylor agreed that higher prices in time beget more supply, but said the time required to find a deposit and get it into production can be a decade or longer.
According to Taylor, there has never been a market like the current uranium market. He called the metal “almost recession proof.”
“What is most remarkable is that even when oil and gas markets have run through considerable corrections, uranium prices have just kept on rising,” he said. “The market forces above are not only bullish for uranium but I believe make this metal almost recession proof.”
Mohr alluded to this as well, saying, “Nuclear energy is used for ‘base load’ electricity generation and will be little affected by an expected modest slowdown in global growth in 2007, using ‘purchasing power parity’ estimates.”
Taylor thus concluded, “with a major portion of the world’s electricity being supplied by nuclear power plants, and with those plants needing to keep supplying electricity even in a major economic decline, and with supplies of uranium dwindling, it is hard to see how uranium prices would fall, even though the cost of mining uranium may decline in a deflationary environment.”
Uranium Stock Performance
Many uranium stocks have doubled, tripled and quadrupled their share prices this year. Below is a comprehensive chart of the winners (and losers) of 2006. Click here to read more about Energy Fuels Inc.
2006 Metals Performance
In addition to uranium, precious and base metals also had robust returns in 2006.
Silver is up 43% after starting the year at $9.04/oz, trading today at $12.89/oz. Gold has risen 22%, with a year-to-year gain of $110, closing today at $631.30/oz.
Platinum hit highs of $1400/oz in November on ETF speculation, but has since fallen back to trade at $1119/oz. The white metal is up 15% since starting the year at $972/oz. Palladium is up 24% after opening 2006 at $265/oz and closing today at $329oz.
In base metals, nickel began the year at $6/lb and is now priced at $15.71/lb, a gain of 161%. Zinc in the next best performer with a 123% gain, from 85 cents to $1.91/lb. Lead is up 43% for the year at 74 cents from 52 cents per pound. Aluminium has seen as gain of 25% from $1.01/lb to today’s price of $1.28/lb.
After a topsy-turvy year, copper is trading at $2.85/lb after beginning 2006 at $2.07/lb and hitting contract highs of $4/lb in mid-May.
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|Could Small Uranium Explorer Be the Next Strateco?
By Michael J. DesLauriers
13 Dec 2006 at 07:05 PM EST
TORONTO (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Over the last couple of months the entire universe of publicly-listed uranium companies has enjoyed a considerable resurgence in positive money flow, and renewed speculative enthusiasm across the board. The question on the lips of many a keen market observer is, among the hundreds of listed names today, where will the next major discovery be made? With so many junior players commanding serious valuations merely on the back of promotion and without even a hint of promise, one must filter carefully through the endless roster of names and addresses to attempt to uncover value.
In mid-April of this year RI profiled a small uranium explorer with some exciting prospects and an aggressive, experienced management team. Ditem Explorations [TSXv:DIT] was then changing hands around the 50-cent level, and it was our contention that under the stewardship of President Raymond Savoie, a connection-laden, former Minister of Mines in Quebec, the company had a better than average chance of stumbling into some projects that could add significant shareholder value. This is what has happened.
Most readers will probably be aware of the Otish Mountains as the area relates to one of 2006’s biggest successes in the junior uranium space, Strateco Resources [TSXv:RSC]. That company has delivered a ten-bagger for investors, with its share price having advanced from about a quarter early this year, to a close today of C$2.66, a major institutional following and a market capitalization approaching a quarter-billion dollars.
Strateco has been one of the few Canadian explorers to consistently deliver high-grade results from its Matoush property in the Otish Mountains, which according to some analysts and industry pundits is shaping up to be one of the more promising geological settings for a major economic uranium discovery in Canada.
What most readers do not know is that: 1) Ditem has a 2% royalty on Matoush, which some argue is already worth more than the market capitalization of the entire company; and 2) As the area-map shown above illustrates, Savoie operating in his own backyard has carefully managed to put together the second largest land position in the Otish Mountains after Cameco [NYSE:CCJ; TSX:CCO] with a contiguous land block of 340 square kilometres.
There are a few important things one should remember and take into account where Ditem and its valuation are concerned. The first is that unlike most or all of its peers, Ditem has done absolutely no work as far as promotion, or investor relations is concerned, and in fact, it was not until about two days ago the company had even so much as a corporate website as a means of telling its story. As a result DIT seems to be chronically under-followed, especially in the retail community – this is beginning to change.
What Ditem has been doing is acquiring significant and high-impact land positions in the Athabasca Basin and Otish Mountains, leveraging the relationships that Ray Savoie built up during his tenure as Minister of Mines in the Quebec government.
As announced Tuesday, the widely followed and respected Sprott Asset Management has taken note of what was being quietly accomplished here, acquiring 10% of Ditem in a private placement at 45 cents per share. Most investors in the resource sector will know Sprott as being one of the more aggressive and successful asset management players in the business, who have in fact been involved in the uranium area for a good five years. Sprott’s investment in Ditem should serve as a validation and endorsement of the property package which management has put together, elevating the company above the sea of listed juniors.
At today’s close of 65 cents, DIT has a market capitalization of under C$20 million, with about $4 million of cash on hand to test its portfolio of projects, specifically its major land position in the Otish Mountains. Although DIT’s land package is largely untested, it would appear that some of the more informed and successful players in the resource investment business are beginning to take notice and place their bets.
The idea would appear to be that Ditem is essentially a derivative of Strateco, and with a market valuation 1/10th the size of the latter, represents a quite compelling shot, in what is emerging as a geologically favourable setting for a major economic uranium discovery.
Indeed, investors should look at Ditem as a cheap call option on Strateco, which never expires. The two stories are beginning to trade in lockstep, but clearly percentage gains will be superior on the cheaper play with a smaller market cap and lower share price.
The company would seem to have the right ingredients with the following:
Two drill programs in Q1, one in the Otish Mountains and another in the Athabasca basin;
The second largest land position in the Otish Mountains;
A 2% royalty on Strateco’s Matoush;
A well-connected President with more rabbits in his hat.
The key with junior explorers is to have the odds stacked in your favour, and Ditem certainly registers high on that criteria. DIT could quickly run higher with a little bit of success through the drill-bit, be it its own or RSC’s, and given its royalty, could soon become a takeover target of its larger brethren.
Fint tiltak du drar igang.
Jeg har selv tenkt å begynne å se på U-selskap. Litt seint, kanskje siden den største bevegelsen er gjort.
Men, jeg har uansett interesse av å sette meg inn i bransjen.
Jeg vil bidra når jeg kommer over noe.
|Jeg har også begynt og intresere meg for aksjer i Canada etter at nordnet fikk denne muligheten, og Uran aksjer står høyt på ønskelisten.
Limer inn et forslag til portefølje fra loparn, http://hem.passagen.se/fingerpr/loparn/
Mange uran aksjer her.
För 2007 sätter jag 29 dec 2006 ihop ett riktigt högriskförslag av chansaktier, dvs av mig ej noga analyserade, från Kanadabörserna samt norska DNO. 65 % i ännu ej producerande uranbolag innebär en mycket hög exponering mot den fortsatt mycket intressanta energirelaterade råvaran uran där priset väntas stiga ytterligare under 2007 pga den stora långsiktiga obalansen i produktion och förbrukning. Även på mycket lång sikt bör den ökande efterfrågan från kärnkraftverk medföra varaktigt relativt höga uranpriser trots ökat utbud om ett antal år. Alla de sex Kanada-noterade bolagen har egna produktionsmål (eller trolig potential för produktion) för 2-3 år framåt i tiden, vilka skulle innebära, att aktiekurserna troligen skulle kunna stiga inom, låt säga, intervallet 200-500 % på den tidshorisonten med nuvarande råvarupriser och trots viss ytterligare aktieutspädning, om produktionsmålen infrias. Hur mycket av denna möjliga långsiktiga utveckling som aktiemarknaden kommer att diskontera redan under loppet av 2007 är mycket svårt att uppskatta nu dock. Jag hoppas på en portföljutveckling på åtminstone +50 %, vilket bl a torde förutsätta en viss uppgång i uranpriset för fortsatt positivt ”sentiment” för uransektorn på börsen. Det skulle kunna bli uppåt +100 % eller ännu mer, om inget av bolagen sviker och uranpriset dessutom går mycket starkt under hela 2007. Jag vågar dock inte räkna med en IT-hausse-parallell där aktiekurserna inom uransektorn springer ifrån fundamenta med ”hästlängder” (vilket skulle kunna bädda för framtida kursras). I vart fall kan portföljen komma att svänga kraftigt under loppet av 2007, såsom skedde under 2006 i uransektorn. Jag äger själv aktier i samtliga dessa uppräknade bolag (men även i andra) – åtminstone just nu i skrivande stund ;-) - men är förstås beredd att minska/sälja om t ex aktierna lyfter för mycket eller förutsättningarna för ytterligare kursuppgång ändras på bolags- eller makronivå.
Var och en handlar på egen risk ! Denna portfölj har en extrem risk/chans pga det stora uranprisberoendet och karaktär av projektbolag.
20 % URE (3.86 CAD),
15 % EFR (4.23 CAD)
15 % UPC(0.90 CAD)
15 % PWE (2.90 CAD)
15 % ROK (1.53 CAD)
10 % TAM (0.62 CAD)
10 % DNO (11.50 NOK)
1 CAD = 5.928 SEK, NOK = 1.097 SEK 29 dec 2006
|Hvor kan jeg finne prisen for uran, og hvor kan jeg handle kontrakter?
|Pris: Ingen kontrakter som er børshandlet, derfor er det ikke noe du kan handle.
Selskapet UxC The Ux Consulting Company LLC publiserer en pris på sin hjemmeside.
Her er en forklaring på vordan prisen settes
Samme pris referes på KitcoMetals.com
Du kan ikke kjøpe Uran-kontrakter, som andre børsnoterte råvarer.
Det finnes imidlertid et Uran-fond i Canada, ticker CA:U
Etter det jeg forstår, kjøper det inn og lagrer uran fysisk, med hensikt å selge det tilbake til markedet senere ved høyere pris da (formodentlig).
Jeg har ingen oppfatning av det, men det har vært anbefalt av en del. Det ble startet opp da U-prisen lå rundt $25/lb.
Fra 7 mai, 2007 børshandles Uran-oksyd på NYMEX
Info fra Nymex:
Trading Unit: 250 pounds of U308
Price Quotation: U.S. dollars and cents per pound.
Minimum Price Fluctuation: $0.05
Trading Hours: The contracts are available for trading on the CME Globex® and NYMEX ClearPort® electronic trading systems from 6:00 PM Sundays through 5:15 PM Fridays, Eastern Time, with a 45-minute break each day between 5:15 PM and 6:00 PM.
Trading Months: 36 consecutive months.
Last Day of Trading: Trading terminates at the close of business on the last Monday of the contract month. If the last Monday in the contract month is not a business day, trading shall terminate on the last business day prior to the Monday that is not a business day.
Settlement: Financial, based on the spot month-end U3O8 price published by Ux Consulting Company, LLC.
Margin Requirements: Margins are required for open futures positions.
Trading Symbol: UX
Alle kontraktene og forsinkede priser fra Futuresource.com
[Endret 05.03.07 23:16 av OldNick]
[Endret 11.03.07 17:09 av OldNick]
[Endret 07.05.07 17:14 av OldNick]
[Endret 07.05.07 17:15 av OldNick]
|Jeg har gjort et forsøk på å beregne hva U-prisen betyr for strømprisen ?
La oss ta et eksempel med $100/lb. ren U3O8.
Det gir følgende bidrag i prisen for el.energi:
1 tonn U3O8 = ca. 13.000 tonn oljeekv. (oppgitt intervall 10.000-16.000)
1 tonn oljeekv. = 42 GJ = 42.000 MJ (netto forbrenningsvarme). 1 kWh = 9.36 MJ
Ref: World Energy Council's omregningstabell
Moderne varmekraftverk med dampturbin gir en virkningsgrad på ca. 38%. (Fjernvarme øker den selvsagt en del, kan spillvarmen utnyttes, men det gir jo ikke elektrisitet).
1 tonn = 2205 lb., dvs. 1 tonn U3O8 ville koste US$220.500,-
Det gir produsert elektrisitetsenergi tilsv.:
13.000 x 42.000 x 0.38 / 9.36 = 22.166.667,00 kWh
Kostnad: 220.500 / 22.166.667 = 0,01 US$/kWh, dvs. 1 USc/kWh = ca. 6.5 øre/kWh.
Er det noen som vil kommentere om det er korrekt ?
[Endret 14.01.07 14:23 av OldNick]
[Endret 14.01.07 14:23 av OldNick]
[Endret 03.05.07 06:53 av OldNick]
|January 20, 2007
A Big Year Ahead For Uranium
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, editor of FNArena.com
Amidst the severe turmoil on global commodity markets in the first three weeks of January one commodity has stood out like a solid oak in the middle of a corn field: uranium.
Admittedly, buying and selling on the open spot market has been rather quiet so far this year. But then again, the spot price for U3O8 (uranium oxide) made a few gigantic leaps in the final quarter of calendar 2006 finishing the year at an unexpected US$72/lb - more than double the US$35/lb recorded at the beginning of 2006.
So far, the spot price has not moved from its record high price level in January.
Even more important is that market insights and price forecasts have made a few quantum leaps over the past few weeks as well. It would appear that the wider investment community has finally taken notice of the paradigm shift that has occurred in the uranium market over the past 36 months or so.
The flooding of Cameco's Cigar Lake project in particular seems to have convinced a few more experts that uranium is indeed a latecomer in this Super Cycle with producers and explorers bound to enjoy another year of strong spot price momentum at a time when the outlook for most other commodities seems less clear cut, to say the least.
The latest expert to join the queue of former skeptics who turned unquestionably bullish is Deutsche Bank. The broker reported on Tuesday it had significantly increased its price forecasts for the next three years.
Deutsche Bank notes how the price for uranium has not weakened since it took off in 2003. The broker's revised price forecasts suggest investors and market enthusiasts should not have to worry anytime soon with the new estimates predicting steadfastly further climbing prices - at least until mid-2009.
Before the flooding of the Cameco mine, uranium was enjoying strong support from increasing global demand and a supply deficit forecast until at least 2009 (although not everyone was convinced about this fact). Post the flooding the sector, and those following it, simply had to come to terms with the fact that circa 10% of projected new supply will not become available anytime soon.
Cameco, the world's largest producer of uranium representing circa 21% of global supply, is expected to update the market on its Cigar Lake project on February 6 and 7. No doubt, this will be the most anticipated event within the sector for a long time.
Deutsche Bank analysts believe the flooding of the Canadian mine has altered the industry for many years to come. "Like other commodities which have witnessed phenomenal price increases, the uranium market will eventually restrain itself as exploration and production increases and newer forms of supply are introduced to the market. Nevertheless, until this situation unfolds, we expect continued strength and greater increases in the spot price", the report states.
So far Cameco management has only conceded that the flooding at Cigar Lake might delay production by circa twelve months. Deutsche Bank believes the market has priced in a delay by two years.
Regardless of whether this is true or false, the broker believes it will take years to bring supply and demand in balance - even when scenarios such as the potential release of secondary material by either Russia or the US government are taken into account.
An ongoing tight uranium market is projected to catapult the U3O8 spot price to above US$100/lb by the third quarter of calendar 2007. As Deutsche Bank has put an average spot price of US$100/lb for the whole year in its projections, a logical conclusion is that the price will spike much higher than the magical US$100/lb in the second half of this year.
The average price forecast for calendar 2008 now stands at US$105/lb, while 2009 should see a gradual retreat as the year unfolds leading to a projected average price of US$90/lb.
How much value should we adhere to these projections?
Our colleagues at Stockinterview.com amassed a few more price revisions by some experts in the market. At Merrill Lynch analysts Vicky Binns and Daniel Hynes have penciled in average prices of US$75/lb for this year and US$80/lb for 2008. Adam Schatzker at RBC Capital, however, agrees with Deutsche Bank and predicts a US$100/lb spot price average for calendar 2007.
Patricia Mohr, Vice President of Economics at Scotiabank, sees uranium averaging US$80 throughout the current calendar year, but reaching US$90/lb in the final quarter. Bart Jaworski at Raymond James has put the 2007 price average at US$90, while forecasting US$100/lb for both 2008 and 2009.
When US based analysts at JP Morgan caught up with the new reality in November last year they did what Deutsche Bank (and most experts) has refused to do so far: they raised their long term price estimate to US$70/lb.
JP Morgan forecasts a 2007 price average of US$90/lb, with estimates for the subsequent three years set at US$80/lb.
In Australia, politics will play a major role throughout the year. In April the Labor party's national meeting is on the agenda. FNArena has received confirmation from inside the party that the new leaders expect the party to abandon its stringent no-extra uranium mining policy.
In December analysts at ABN Amro stated they believed a change in policy would lead to a re-rating of the Australian uranium explorers and potentially trigger further consolidation in the sector. It seems but logical that investors will treat an official change in view by Australia's leading opposition party -and current ruler in every state of the Federation- as a first step towards a more uranium mining friendly environment in Australia.
Later in the year the Federal government will announce new elections.
January 20, 2007
By Julie Ickes
coming soon! Print Version
Adobe Reader required click here for free download
Spot Uranium Price Does a 'Rip Van Winkle' Waiting for Cameco
Buyers Still Hungry for Sellers to Sell U3O8
Spot U3O8 stuck at $72/pound for fifth straight week.
Like Washington Irving’s fictional short story character, the spot uranium price has taken a snooze. It’s been five weeks of no change in the spot price of uranium – an impatient eternity for the metal which nearly doubled during 2006. This past Thursday, Cameco announced a company conference call would take place on Wednesday, February 7th to discuss the fourth quarter financial results and company developments.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out the specific update investors will mostly want to hear about is the remediation progress at the company’s Cigar Lake uranium mine in Canada’s Saskatchewan province. Cameco failed to mention Cigar Lake in its news release, but analysts and the media will quickly inquire if the subject is not brought up. While investors gather around the Internet chat boards, like gamblers in a casino – trying to determine whether the spot uranium price will float higher or sink by February 7th, utilities are faced with a different crisis.
According to Treva Klingbiel, editor of TradeTech’s Nuclear Market Review (NMR), “Buyers are finding it increasingly difficult to locate willing sellers, as sellers grow increasingly confident about continued price increases.” NMR publishes changes in the spot uranium price every Friday in its weekly publication. No new transactions or new demand was reported in either the spot or long-term uranium markets this past week.
[Editor’s Note: In order to help our readers become more familiar and knowledgeable about transactions in the uranium market, we asked if TradeTech would provide a complimentary issue of Nuclear Market Review for this week. If you wish to download your complimentary issue, please visit the TradeTech website and follow the downloading instructions. There is no charge or obligation for this week’s issue.]
Although no new transactions were reported, the spot uranium market remains very tight. This week’s Nuclear Market Review reported that ten buyers, including seven utilities and three intermediaries, continue to seek offers for more than five million pounds of U3O8 equivalent. One U.S. utility is hoping to buy 650,000 thousand pound of U3O8 contained in UF6. The same tension is found in the long-term market where fifteen buyers are actively hoping to purchase nearly 54 million pounds of U3O8 equivalent.
This past week’s quarterly update from ERA (Australia) announcing a 20-percent drop in uranium mining production for 2006 was expected, but probably not welcome news. The ballyhoo about the company’s single digit increased uranium oxide production may have sounded good on paper, but the increased production is insufficient from one of the world’s largest uranium miner to feed a hungry nuclear fuel market. Again, uranium mining companies could not keep up this year’s demand for yellowcake and UF6. The uranium bull market continues.
We suspect transactions may pick up a bit through the week of February 7th as nervous buyers and confident sellers hedge their bets on Cameco’s Cigar Lake update. Before the Cameco update, Nuclear Market Review will issue two more spot price announcements. In February, the stalemate should be over, and we will have a more transparent picture of the direction spot uranium price takes for the balance of the first quarter and possibly for the rest of the year.
The complete reference guide to uranium mining stock investing. All the important information you need to know about uranium, uranium mining and the nuclear fuel cycle. Find out how to invest in uranium mining stocks. Find out more about the serious companies developing their uranium properties for production. Discover how to choose a uranium stock and how to objectively rate a company's potential for success. Get the inside secrets from uranium mining insiders and industry experts. Find out about where the 'hot spots' for uranium mining are. Find out which companies are most likely to succeed in bringing their projects into economic production. Find out about the risks when investing in uranium mining stocks. This 304-page guide includes a complete uranium mining stocks directory of key contact information and an extensive glossary of specialized terms unique to this sector. More Info: http://bookstore.stockinterview.com
Please visit StockInterview’s disclaimer page for full disclosure, forward looking statements, important links and cautions.
Please email your feedback on this article: email@example.com
|Liste over Canadisk-listede U-selskap...
Nøkkeltall for Uran-selskap, fra www.U2O8.biz:
Nøkkeltall for Uran gruveselskap
Fin link om alt du vil vite om Uran (kanskje ?):
[Endret 06.02.07 22:54 av OldNick]
[Endret 24.04.07 22:20 av OldNick]
[Endret 25.04.07 15:29 av OldNick]
|U3O8.biz Launches to Cover Growing Uranium Market
Febr. 5, 2007
VANCOUVER, BC - The first independent, web-based news service focusing on the burgeoning uranium market was launched today at
"We are pleased to provide the industry's leading source for independent analysis of the uranium market and the mining and exploration sectors," says John Gomez, President of U3O8.biz. "Until now, information about the uranium market -- particularly for investors -- has not been readily accessible. U3O8.biz fills the void."
U3O8.biz is poised to provide the most complete uranium news, analysis and information service in the industry, backed by market experts and comprehensive data.
Demand for accurate, unbiased uranium market information has increased exponentially with the spot price for uranium, now up over 200 percent since January 2005. Along with these unprecedented increases in the U3O8 price, the number of mining companies seeking new sources of supply has skyrocketed -- now nearing 400.
Beginning today, investors, journalists and industry will have access to comprehensive information distributed by uranium mining companies, as well as industry news and research from around the world, to provide timely analysis on the ever-changing uranium market.
U3O8.biz also features a listing of among the world's top public uranium mining and exploration companies based on their sector profile: production, production visibility, advanced exploration, junior exploration, or uranium funds. Selected companies include Cameco Corp. (CCO.TO), sxr Uranium One Inc. (SXR.TO), UEX Corp. (UEX.TO), and Strateco Resources Inc. (RSC.V).
"Uranium is in a super bull cycle, fueled by supply shortfalls amid rising demand as the world increasingly turns to nuclear for clean, commercially-viable, long term energy solutions. I'm confident U3O8.biz will enable investors and industry to capitalize on today's nuclear renaissance," says Mr. Gomez.
About U3O8 Media Inc.
U3O8 Media Inc.'s Website www.u3o8.biz delivers original market analysis, breaking news, and insightful editorial on the economic, political, and environmental issues fueling the reemerging uranium industry. U3O8.biz also provides valuable market and company research, as well as a listing of leading public mining and exploration companies at the forefront of the uranium business.
|February 07, 2007
Mid week review
For a third straight day, uranium stocks look lethargic as the lack of catalysts this week continues to leave investors indecisive about the sustainability of last week's impressive rally.
While the absence of potentially troubling economic data cleared way for the bulls to build on recent market gains right out of the gate, renewed concerns about Tech's growth prospects, oil prices making another run at US $60/bbl intraday, and some apprehension ahead of several speeches from the U.S. Fed officials underpinned a sense of caution.
Purepoint Uranium Group continued to outperform most uranium mining stocks trading 1.2 million shares closing up another 10% at $2.20 following the release of exploration results from the Turner Lake project. These results come on the heals of last weeks 72% share price increase after the Company entered into an option agreement with Cameco to acquire 50% of the Cameco's Smart Lake uranium project in Saskatchewan.
Paladin Resources' stock continued its upward climb this week, up 0.34 cents to C$8.45 while the market anticipates positive news about key approvals for the company's African mine. The company said in its latest quarterly report it was waiting on the Malawi Government to approve the development agreement to cover the first 10 years of its Kayelekera mine operation. Paladin has just brought into production its first African mine, Langer Heinrich in Namibia. The company plans to get Kayelekera into production by September 2008.
Cameco' stock continued to downward settling at C$44.85 down 0.15 cents after announcing the Bruce Power Limited Partnership (BPLP) contributed C$13 million of pre-tax earnings to its fourth quarter results--a decline compared to the fourth quarter of 2005, when pre-tax earnings was C$30 million.
According to Jerry Grandey, Cameco's president and CEO, lower electricity prices were responsible for the reduced earnings. The average Ontario electricity spot price in 2006 was $22 per megawatt hour (MWh) lower than in 2005, due to decreased demand resulting from more moderate temperatures, lower natural gas prices and more supply from hydro power.
For the year 2006, earnings before taxes from BPLP were $388 million (100% basis) compared to $520 million (which excludes the $149 million loss recorded on the restructuring of Bruce Power) in 2005. The decline in 2006 from 2005 was due primarily to lower electricity spot prices. Cameco's share of BPLP's pre-tax earnings was $128 million in 2006 compared to $170 million in 2005.
Profit at the world's largest uranium producer, Cameco Corp. (TSX:CC0), dropped $43-million in the three months ended Dec. 31 from the same period in 2005.
Cameco Reports fourth quarter profits
Today, the Saskatoon-based company reported fourth-quarter profit of $40-million, or 11 cents per diluted share, compared with $83-million or 23 cents a share the year before.
Cameco attributed the drop partly to flooding at northern Saskatchewan's Cigar Lake mine in April and October.
For the 2006 fiscal year, Cameco's adjusted net earnings were $274-million, or 75 cents per share, compared with $208-million, or 58 cents a share, in 2005.
Fourth-quarter revenue was $512-million, down slightly from $522-million during the same period a year earlier.
Yearly revenue was $1.83-billion, up from $1.31-billion in 2005.
"The company recorded record revenue, earnings and cash flow for 2006, despite lower earnings in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year," said Jerry Grandey, president and CEO.
"As we have indicated, quarterly results are not a good indicator of Cameco's annual results and the fourth quarter certainly demonstrates this."
The company has said cost estimates for the work at Cigar Lake won't be available until late next month. It hopes to have completed the work needed to seal off water flow in the second quarter.
The flooding at Cigar Lake, a project Cameco had hoped to bring into production in 2008, sent uranium prices soaring last year.
Prices nearly doubled, with some analysts forecasting an average price of US$100 per pound in 2007 as demand continues to outstrip supply.
Centerra Gold Inc., which is partially owned by Cameco, reported its financial results late Tuesday.
Its profit fell to $1.9-million (U.S.) in the fourth quarter, down from $6.4-million in the last three months of 2005.
The world's biggest miner BHP Billiton has reported a record first-half profit of 6.168 billion dollars, and said it expected China to continue to drive global demand for commodities.
The result was a 41.3 percent increase on the 4.364 billion dollars posted for the same period the previous year, the Anglo-Australian company said.
Strong demand, high commodity prices and solid production had allowed the company to achieve record results in all key earnings measures, it said.
Uranium rush focuses the Ukraine. Not so fast says Government
with prices rapidly increasing worldwide and a shortage in supply looming on the horizon, Ukraine's abundant uranium-ore deposits have become a powerful magnet for foreign companies.
However, the country's leadership is not eager to let them in so soon, opting instead to yield monopoly control over the potentially lucrative business to a yet-to-be-established state behemoth, which would need an estimated $2.4 billion in credit to get on its feet.
As the battle to gain control over the mining of Ukrainian uranium, together with its processing into nuclear fuel, continues, experts say development of the business is key to the nation's energy security. Ukraine, which receives about half of its electricity from nuclear power plants, has enough uranium reserves to weed out Russian imports and fill domestic demand for up to 1,000 years.
Just how much ura
|Norske myndigheter har satt igang prosjekter på Thorium....
Store deposits i Hedmark. Hvem prospekterer på "the next big thing" der?
Det kommer til å gå 20-30 år før det er noen sjanse for kommersialisering av norske Thorium-Kraftwerk. I alle fall om kapitalen da ikke kommer fra private kilder som vil ha fortgang i saken.
|Seven reasons the uranium price will hit $100 this year
By Sean Brodrick, Whiskey & Gunpowder
Feb. 7, 2007
Staff is at a premium.
Rockhounds love what they do, but even they can’t do it forever. And when the price of uranium cratered in the 1980s, staffs were decimated. About 20,000 engineers and geologists worked in the uranium sector in American companies during the last uranium boom. That number is about 400 now, too many of whom are close to retirement age. So if you can find a company with a fairly “deep bench” of uranium mining experts on its payroll, those guys are worth their weight in gold.
Forces that will drive uranium price to $100 a pound - and beyond
Force #1: The Supply/Demand Gap
Consider these facts...
1. About 16% of the world's electricity came from 440 nuclear reactors last year, according to the World Nuclear Association. Currently, there are 28 reactors under construction around the world and another 62 being planned:
- Japan intends to add 11 by 2010
- China hopes to add as many as 30 by 2020. More on China in just a bit…
- India wants to build up to 20 more
- Russia’s energy goals call for at least 42 new nuclear reactors...perhaps as many as 58!
2. An additional 100 plants will be built in the next 10 years, with 40 of them in Asia.
3. Bottom line: By 2050, scientists estimate the world will need about 900 more nuclear power plants to keep up with growing energy requirements.
As a result, the undeniable reality is that demand for uranium is outstripping supply. In 2005...
• Supply from mines was 102.5 million pounds
• Demand was 171 million pounds
• The gap was 68.5 million pounds.
Totals for 2006 aren’t in yet, but demand probably topped 180 million pounds. And as new nuclear power plants come online, that demand will grow. A typical 1-gigawatt nuclear reactor requires around 200 metric tonnes of natural uranium per year. During startup, a new nuclear plant can use TRIPLE its normal requirements.
The fact is production from world uranium mines now supplies only 62% of the requirements of power utilities. The rest is made up from rapidly dwindling stockpiles, mainly old Russian nuclear warheads that are converted to material for power plants. That agreement expires in 2013, and won’t likely be renewed, since the Russians have a very ambitious nuclear program of their own.
Force #2: Crisis at Cigar Lake
Force #3: China, the Uranium-Devouring Monster
Force #4: Global Warming Trumps Everything
Force #5: Peak Oil and Peak Natural Gas.
Force #6: Nuclear power looks cheaper all the time.
Force #7: The Feeding Frenzy Could Get Even MORE Intense Next Year.
I expect a pullback in uranium prices this year, but it will be a short-term correction in a big bull market. What I recommend is you put HALF your money to work NOW, then put the rest to work if and when we get a sizeable pullback.
If uranium doesn't pull back, at least you're in the game. If uranium does pull back, you'll average in for a better price.
Good luck, and good trades.
|SXR Uranium Agrees to Buy UrAsia for $3.1 Billion
By Carli Lourens and Angela Macdonald-Smith
Feb. 12, 2007
Bloomberg - SXR Uranium One Inc. agreed to buy UrAsia Energy Ltd. for $3.1 billion, seeking to form the world's second-largest uranium producer as rising demand for nuclear fuel drives prices to records.
SXR, owner of South Africa's largest undeveloped uranium deposit, offered C$7.05 ($6.01) a share in stock for Vancouver- based UrAsia, which owns uranium mines in Central Asia. That's 13 percent more than UrAsia's Feb. 9 closing price in Toronto, the companies said today. SXR's stock rose 9.4 percent to a record.
The combined company, to be known as Uranium One Inc., will be the only producer in Kazakhstan, South Africa, Australia, the U.S. and Canada, the five largest holders of uranium deposits. Uranium prices jumped more than 10-fold in the past five years as demand from utilities surged and stockpiles fell, prompting increased exploration and mine development.
"Every analyst, every commentator is talking about uranium and the need for nuclear energy," David Shapiro, a fund manager at Johannesburg-based Sasfin Holdings Ltd., said in a telephone interview. "As long as that's the case, we're going to see this kind of feeding frenzy."
Shares of Toronto-based SXR climbed 9 rand to 105 rand at 12:31 p.m. in Johannesburg, valuing the company at 14.2 billion rand ($1.97 billion). The stock has more than doubled in the past year. UrAsia's stock jumped 13 percent to 299.5 pence at 10:04 a.m. in London.
The price of uranium has doubled to $75 a pound in the past year as supply growth strains to keep up with demand from utilities. Demand for nuclear energy is bolstered by government efforts under the Kyoto Accord to limit emissions of carbon dioxide and curb imports of fossil fuels.
Australia, home to 40 percent of the world's known uranium deposits, says it may build a nuclear industry that can compete with oil and coal within 15 years. Russia plans to make nuclear power the source of 25 percent of its needs by 2030, from 16 percent now, creating a state-run company to compete with Paris- based Areva SA.
Uranium One will have a market value of about $5 billion, making it the world's second-biggest uranium producer, behind Cameco Corp., which is valued at C$15.4 billion.
"This deal is turning SXR into one of the biggest uranium companies in the world," Nick Goodwin, an analyst at Johannesburg-based Tlotlisa Securties Ltd., said in an interview. The combined company will have a total resource of about 400 million pounds of uranium, he added.
Uranium One will have estimated production of more than 7 million pounds of uranium in 2008 from five projects, at cash costs of about $10-$12 per pound, SXR's executive vice president for Australia and Asia, Greg Cochran, told reporters in Sydney.
"The new Uranium One will be an exciting, low-cost, growth- orientated uranium company with five mines in operation by the first quarter of 2008," SXR Chief Executive Officer Neal Froneman said in the statement.
By 2012, the company will produce "upwards of between 12 and 15 million pounds per annum," making the company the second- largest producer behind Cameco, Cochran said.
UrAsia mines 1.8 million pounds of uranium in Kazakhstan a year. The company listed its shares on the London Stock Exchange's Alternative Investment Market in August, adding to its main listing in Canada. The company has three mining and exploration projects in Kazakhstan and a fourth exploration venture in Kyrgyzstan, it said Aug. 21.
Les mer her
UrAsia Energy Ltd (UUU:TSXv)
SXR Uranium One Inc.
|Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, den Pakistanske atombombens "far".
Utdrag av Khan's involvering i Irans atomenergi-utvikling (ikke fra Wikipedia):
In January 2003, Nuclear Fuel reported that Western intelligence agencies had identified Khan’s laboratory, KRL, as the primary source for centrifuge design information for a hitherto undeclared enrichment programme in Iran.
In February 2003, taking the lead from the National Council of Resistance of Iran, an Iranian opposition group who in 2002 had exposed an enrichment site in Natanz, inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) made several visits and viewed a centrifuge enrichment plant under construction. In August 2003, Iran disclosed to the IAEA that it had launched a centrifuge enrichment programme in 1985, and had obtained centrifuge blueprints through a foreign intermediary in ‘about 1987’. After months of denials, at the end of 2003 Pakistan confirmed the report that Khan had diverted its enrichment know-how to Iran, Libya, and North Korea.
The Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran told the IAEA that its enrichment programme consisted of three phases. During phase one (1985-1997), which centred on the Plasma Physics Laboratories in Tehran, efforts were concentrated on achieving an operating centrifuge. To do this the Iranians acquired components from abroad through foreign intermediaries, or directly by the Iranians themselves. Iran acquired high-strength aluminium, maraging steel, electron beam welders, balancing machines, vacuum pumps, computer-numerically controlled machine tools, and flow-forming machines for both aluminium and maraging steel. Many of these items were obtained in Europe, especially from Germany and Switzerland. It is believed that suppliers trained Iranians in the use of critical equipment and technologies needed in a centrifuge programme. According to a November 2003 IAEA report on Iran, the Iranians were able to acquire 2000 components and some subassemblies. In Phase 2 (1997-2002), activities were carried out at the Kalaye Electric Company, located in a suburb of Tehran. During this phase, efforts were focused on centrifuge construction, assembly, and mechanical testing. Phase 3 (since 2002), has involved research, assembly, installation, and completion of centrifuge cascades in the centrifuge facilities at Natanz. During 2003, the IAEA determined that Iran had set up centrifuges at Natanz which were based on early Urenco efforts.
[Endret 15.02.07 13:54 av OldNick]
[Endret 15.02.07 13:56 av OldNick]
[Endret 15.02.07 13:56 av OldNick]
|“We’re NOT for Sale!”
Junior Uranium Miners Reluctant to Be Acquired
Feb. 16, 2007
By James Finch
|full List of All Canadian Uranium Stocks + andre
[Endret 18.02.07 08:46 av bjørneklo]
[Endret 18.02.07 08:51 av bjørneklo]
Lesverdig analyse om uranium for 2007
|Noen som kjenner til dette ?
Uranium Focused Energy Fund - Initial Public Offering
Jan. 30, 2007
TORONTO - Middlefield Group, on behalf of Uranium Focused Energy Fund (the "Fund"), is pleased to announce that it has filed a preliminary prospectus in relation to the initial public offering of units of the Fund.
The Fund will be advised by Middlefield Capital Corporation (the
"Advisor") and Global Fuel Solutions ("GlobalFuel"), an independent uranium industry consultant based in Los Altos, California, which has been engaged to provide analysis and opinion regarding uranium market supply-demand fundamentals and associated pricing implications. Mr. Clark M. Beyer, GlobalFuel's principal, has over 20 years experience in trading, marketing and consulting in the international markets for uranium and nuclear fuel. Mr. Beyer will be the individual primarily involved in providing services on behalf of GlobalFuel.
Les mer her
[Endret 27.02.07 14:12 av OldNick]
Uracan Resources Ltd. (TSX-V: URC) is drilling this month – February 2007 – for a near surface, bulk tonnage uranium deposit in Quebec, Canada. Abundant historical uranium showings were confirmed by a prospecting program last summer. Several large anomalies, kilometers in size were identified, and targets will be tested in the coming weeks with a 12,000 meter drill program. (~100 holes)
Two management teams with excellent track records in creating value for shareholders have combined to form Uracan. The technical team comes from Bema Gold, and the financial management is from Endeavour Financial. Several of their exploration companies have been purchased by mining majors, and have a track record of putting deposits into production.
|BMO Forecasts Continued Uptrend in Uranium
By Jon A. Nones, ResourceInvestor.com
26 Feb 2007
St. LOUIS - At the 2007 BMO Global Resources Conference today, Don Coxe, global portfolio strategist for BMO Financial Group said the commodities bull market is now in its 6th year and there are many more years to come.
“We’ve seen the first six years of this story; we’ve got much more to go,” he said. “Don’t let anyone talk you out of it saying it is yesterday’s story; it’s tomorrow’s story.”
In addition to speaking about oil and gold, which often steal the headlines, he spoke about the craze that has recently hit the uranium market.
The spot uranium price has risen 136% since starting 2006 at $36/lb. So far this year, the price has jumped almost 20% now at $85/lb.
In October 2006, the market digested a supply squeeze when Cameco’s [NYSE:CCJ; TSX:CCO] Cigar Lake was flooded, delaying shipments until at least 2008. Cigar Lake is the world’s largest undeveloped uranium deposit, holding 232 million pounds U3O8 at a grade of 19%. At peak, it is forecast to produce 18 million pounds of uranium per year, supplying 17% of world uranium supply.
On the demand side, 29 nuclear-power plants are being built worldwide with over 100 more in the planning stages. China's plans call for 15 to 30 new nuclear plants by 2020, while India is building seven more plants and has been promised U.S. help to triple its collection by 2020. Japan, already with 59 reactors, plans to build 11 more by 2010.
Coxe noted that Germany recently changed its policy about phasing out its nuclear energy. A compromise agreement was worked out to limit the operational lives of nuclear power plants to an average of 32 years, deferring any immediate closures.
Germany obtains one third of its electricity from nuclear energy, using 17 reactors. Its neighbour France derives 75% of its electricity from nuclear energy from 59 plants.
In the U.S., the Bush administration has strongly pushed nuclear power and backed a 2005 energy bill offering subsidies to utilities to go ahead with projects in a streamlined regulatory process. The Energy Act of 2005 offered loan guarantees, production tax credits and partial reimbursement against regulatory delays.
Coxe said prior to the disasters at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, the nuclear energy was supported by U.S. administrations from the 50s to 70s, endorsed by former Presidents Dwight D. Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson and Richard Nixon.
At the time, oil was priced at around $10 per barrel so nuclear plants were seen as uneconomical. Now with oil at $60/bbl, government officials are changing their sentiment.
“Now, suddenly, nuclear power is back in demand as a relatively cheap, reliable and emissions-free solution to the world's insatiable demand for energy,” said Elliott H. Gue, editor of The Energy Letter in a recent commentary.
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission says U.S. utilities are looking at building as many as 27 reactors, and it just licensed a $1.5 billion uranium enrichment plant near Eunice, New Mexico, where a groundbreaking ceremony was held in August.
The industry hopes to begin plans for 10 to 30 new nuclear plants in the next two decades. The United States has the most reactors with 103, which provide about 19.3% of the country's electric power.
Gue said the nation's 103 operating nuclear power plants already are operating on dwindling supplies of uranium, and Russian stockpiles are falling fast.
Production from world uranium mines now supplies only 60% of the requirements of power utilities, according data by the Uranium Information Centre. The rest comes largely from government stockpiles, which are rapidly dwindling.
“Uranium concentrate is in short supply, with world consumption of 180 million pounds outpacing annual production of 100 million pounds ... and the shortage is expected to get worse as new plants come online,” he said.
Coxe said nuclear energy has Russian President Vladimir Putin to thank for much of this reversal. After Russia’s freeze in natural gas to Ukraine last year, the world took notice of just how dependent it is on these energy sources.
“We just can’t be in a situation were a crisis in the Middle East could produce $200 oil,” he said.
Oil rose to $61.40 today as world powers discussed tightening U.N. sanctions on Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil exporter, after the latest deadline for Tehran to halt its nuclear program came and went unheeded.
At present, 442 nuclear plants are operating in more than 31 countries, accounting for 16% of electrical production worldwide. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the world's energy needs will rise 51% by 2030.
“Uranium investments are poised to explode. Now is the time to position your portfolio accordingly, and reap a financial windfall,” concluded Gue.
BMO har link til ressurskonferansen som foregår i deres regi i Tampa, Florida denne uken.
BMO Capital Markets
2007 Global Resource Conference
February 25-28, Tampa, Florida
Jeg fikk den dog ikke til å fungere i går, kanskje det går bedre idag ?]
Silicon Investor - Cameco-forum
Investor Village - Cameco-forum
Stockhouse Bullboards - Cameco-forum
Fra GoldLetter - Uranium Letter International
Resource Capital Research - Some free U-reports
PreciousMetalResources.com - Canadian Uranium Stock List
[Endret 28.02.07 01:15 av OldNick]
|Energy Resources of Australia (ERA:ASX), som opererer verdens tredje største uran-gruve (Cameco's MacArtur River og BHP's Olympic Dam er vel de største), er utsatt for oversvømmelse i et av dagbruddene de driver fra.
Selskapet er et datterselskap av Rio Tinto Group som eier ca. 68% av ERA.
Meldingen indikerer at opptil 4 mill lb. U3O8 av 2007-produksjonen kan bli borte. Selskapet vil fortsette produksjonen fra mellomlager av malm som allerede er tatt ut. Problemet er at denne malmen har 1/2-parten av U3O8-gehalten sammenlignet med det de vanligvis produserer fra. Normal produksjon kan man lese er i området 11-12 mill. lb/år.
Hvor ille dette kan være for balansen i markedet vet ikke jeg, men vi så hva slags boost U3O8-prisen fikk etterat Cameco måtte melde at deres nyutviklede gruve "Cigar Lake", som skulle være deres neste store produsent, ble oversvømmet i fjor høst.
Verdensproduksjonen av U3O8 er ca. 108 mill lb/år, mens etterspørselen er drøyt 170 mill lb/år. Differansen dekkes av reprosessert, høyaktivt Uran fra stridhoder (hovedsaklig russiske).
Ranger Uranium Mine Pit 3 Flooded
World’s Third Largest Uranium Producer Underwater
A Loss of Up to 4 Million Pounds U3O8 in 2007?
by James Finch, StockInterview.com
Mar. 9, 2007
U.S. and other utilities dependent upon newly mined uranium to power their nuclear reactors can add yet another supply headache to their plate. Energy Resources of Australia declared ‘force majeure’ on its uranium sales contracts to utilities the company supplies in North America, Europe and Asia. No specifics were provided on the company’s website. Information coming from ERA has been on the quiet side.
However, TradeTech chief executive Gene Clark told StockInterview, “ERA or their customers or both will have to be in the market either buying or borrowing.” Dr. Clark calculated ERA’s contract sales in 2006 averaged about US$20.55/pound and were probably expecting $22/pound this year. TradeTech’s Nuclear Market Review reports weekly changes in the spot uranium price in the Friday edition of their trade magazine, and post the update price indicator on the consulting service’s website at www.uranium.info.
How bad can it get? TradeTech roughly estimates that 2007 production – relying only on stockpiled ore at historically low, but acceptable head grades – could reach as low as 7.5 million pounds U3O8. According to Clark, “This could represent a loss in production of up to 4 million pounds U3O8, compared to an average year for Ranger.” This amount represents about four percent of worldwide uranium production in 2006. At the recent spot price, the production loss could be valued at US$340 million.
On Friday (March 9), Haywood Securities issued these photos as part of a desk note to their brokers, with the comment that “water levels are now ‘manageable’.” After reviewing these photos and discussing the potential damage at the Ranger mining operations with those in the industry, we consulted with others who have actually been faced with mine de-watering, mine reclamation and retention ponds, this past Wednesday evening and Thursday.
We showed the photos of the Ranger open pit mine flooding to several mining experts, who asked to remain anonymous for this article, but who have all been involved in open pit and/or underground uranium mining. Feedback ranged from “This is a nightmare!” to “They have big problems: It will take lots of time and lots of money to fix this.”
Water entering Pit 3 from Retention Pond 2 spillway, Ranger Mine
Pit 3, Ranger Mine on March 2nd showing evidence of flooding
Flooding on eastern side of Ranger property
5 March photo, Collapsed South Alligator Bridge, Arnhem Highway
Photos from the surrounding area of the Ranger mine emphasize why uranium mining companies and utilities must diversify their risk.
En artikkel til fra samme side.....
Miners and utilities at odds over uranium price forecasts
Are U.S. Utilities Trying to Talk Down the Price of Uranium?
Platts Nuclear Fuel Strategies Conference
Oct. 2, 2006
By James Finch, firstname.lastname@example.org
[Endret 11.03.07 18:19 av OldNick]
[Endret 11.03.07 18:22 av OldNick]
[Endret 11.03.07 18:37 av OldNick]
[Endret 11.03.07 18:38 av OldNick]
|Og, som response har TradeTech økt sin indikative U3O8-pris fra $85 til $90 pr. lb.
Nuclear Utilities Stunned by Force Majeure - TradeTech Weekly Spot Uranium Price US$90 per Pound
NewswireToday - Sarasota, FL, US
According to TradeTech’s Nuclear Market Review, the consulting service raised its weekly uranium spot price indicator to US$90/pound in light of strong bidding and the force majeure announced by uranium miner ERA on March 7th.
Wednesday’s force majeure announcement by the world’s third largest uranium producer sent tremors through the nuclear utility industry this past week, according to TradeTech’s weekly Nuclear Market Review trade magazine. As a result of the increased response to a higher uranium price, industry consulting service TradeTech raised its weekly spot price indicator by $5 to US$90/pound.
“Even before this Wednesday’s announcement, there were indications that the market price had risen,” wrote Editor Treva Klingbiel in the March 9th edition of Nuclear Market Review. Klingbiel warned, “Doubling the active demand from the addition of ERA’s customers would obviously have an impact on uranium prices.”
The magazine reported, “It seems clear the market is rapidly headed to the triple-digit level.” An evident conclusion was also asserted in this week’s magazine, “The uranium market must learn to deal for a while with the uncertainty of production schedules for Ranger.”
[Endret 11.03.07 23:55 av OldNick]
|Overheated uranium could burn investors
Upstarts are poised for a day of reckoning; analysts say correction is invevitable
ANDY HOFFMAN, Globe and Mail MINING REPORTER
Mar. 14, 2007
Call it a radioactive frenzy. Many believe uranium stocks are so full of speculative money that a serious sector correction is all but inevitable, including the head of high flying sxr Uranium One Inc., one of the boom's biggest beneficiaries.
Hundreds of new companies exploring for uranium have sprung up over the last two years and, with the price of the metal used to fuel nuclear reactors doubling in 2006, most have had little trouble raising money in the stock market.
Yet the upstarts, most of whom have nothing more than uranium "pounds in the ground" and little chance of getting into production any time soon, are poised for a day of reckoning, according to sxr chief executive officer Neal Froneman.
"Some of the money that's being raised today is immoral. It's based on rubbish. That's bad for those that are in the industry for the long term," Mr. Froneman said in an interview.
While sxr is already producing uranium from its Dominion Reefs mine in South Africa, and is poised to acquire fellow producer UrAsia Energy Ltd. in a $3.1-billion (U.S.) stock takeover, most of the uranium companies tapping the market are years away from generating production revenue. That however, hasn't stopped them from raising millions of dollars from investors, a fact that troubles the sxr CEO.
"There are companies that are raising money for assets they don't even own yet. There are companies that have very questionable resources. There are companies that don't have the appropriate 43-101 compliant resources or technical models. There are companies raising money that have absolutely no experience, whether it's exploration or whether it's operational. They are pure promoters. It's all johnny-come-latelies," Mr. Froneman said. "When it does go wrong it's really going to hurt all of us."
A basket of 35 of the biggest uranium stocks has returned an average of 90 per cent over the past year, according to data compiled by Sprott Securities Inc., a Toronto brokerage that has been active in the uranium sector. Strateco Resources Inc., a Vancouver company that is developing three uranium projects in Quebec, was the top performer, gaining 777 per cent for a market value of $328-million (Canadian) on the TSX Venture Exchange. Forsys Metals Corp., a Toronto company with a market value of $417-million that is developing the Valencia uranium project in Namibia, has gained 596 per cent over the last year. During the same period, sxr has gained 115 per cent, while Cameco Corp., the world's largest uranium producer, has gained 13 per cent, as investors fretted about a flood at the company's Cigar Lake project.
"There are hundreds of uranium stocks right now, but there's only going to be a handful that are going to survive," said Barry Allan, an analyst at Research Capital. "There has to be some logic that kicks in at some level."
|Her er ett godt innlegg angaaende Uran being the next big thing:
|Hvilke bedrifter er inflert av uranmarkedet?
I Tyskland har jeg tidligere jobbet for Nucem (Nuclear Chemistry), som er den ledende i handel av Uran. Nucem var tidligere eiet av Siemens som anriket uran, - noe de ikke gjør lenger.
Her i Nord er Vattenfall i Sverige en stor bruker i sine kjernekraftverk.
Vet noen hvilke bedrifter som er i dete markedet?
|Uranium heads for $US100
Talk about a nuclear reaction.
The spot uranium price, having already risen nearly tenfold during the past four years, is expected to break through the $US100 ($125)-a-pound barrier for the first time, possibly as early as this week.
In a case of perfect timing, Perth's Paladin Resources on Friday hosted 200 guests at the official opening of the world's newest uranium mine, Langer Heinrich in Namibia. Paladin stands to be the biggest Australian beneficiary of the increased uranium price, which has risen as a supply shortage has coincided with a huge jump in demand.
A spot price of even $US100 a pound would not be particularly helpful to long-time producers such as Energy Resources of Australia and BHP Billiton unless it stayed that high for years, because they locked in long-term contracts when uranium was trading at record lows.
But Paladin has positioned itself to be the world's fourth-largest uranium producer by 2010, despite competition from emerging rivals around the globe.
"A new exploration cycle is now very much under way and significant new discoveries will be made," Goldman Sachs JBWere analyst Malcolm Southwood said. "But it takes several years to evaluate and prove reserves, and once the economic reserves are defined, it takes 10 years or more to licence and develop a project and bring the mine into production."
Paladin has already approved development of its next project, the $US185 million Kayelekera mine in Malawi. And the company's managing director, John Borshoff, is today expected to make an announcement regarding its recent $1 billion scrip offer for Queensland explorer Summit Resources. A successful bid would give Paladin full control of its half-owned Valhalla and Skal deposits near Mt Isa.
Paladin has additional prospects in the Northern Territory and Western Australia, and Macquarie Equities thinks it may consider an overseas acquisition to enable it to get a third mine in production by 2010.
Paladin's Langer Heinrich mine could benefit immediately from any increase in the spot price. Although contract terms are kept confidential, Macquarie analysts believe Paladin has contracted about half its production from Langer Heinrich with a ceiling of about $US50 a pound and a floor of $US30 a pound. The remaining production is uncontracted and uranium last week was selling at a record spot price of $US91 a pound.
Analysts from Macquarie, RBC Capital Markets and Goldman Sachs JBWere all predict uranium prices could hit $US100 a pound this year.
But BHP, which owns the world's largest uranium resource at Olympic Dam in South Australia, is not expected to benefit from higher uranium prices until legacy contracts paying less than $US20 a pound run out in 2010. Even worse, BHP has been forced to purchase high-priced third-party uranium to meet the terms of some of its contracts.
The pricing terms of Rio Tinto subsidiary ERA's contracts are confidential but Goldman Sachs JBWere said it assumed ERA sold its product through a mixture of spot sales and long-term contracts, with the majority weighted towards long-term contracts.
Cameco Cigar Lake production delayed until 2010; shares rise
March 19, 2007 - Canadian Press
SASKATOON — Cameco Corp.shares rose nearly four per cent Monday after company said its production startup on the Cigar Lake uranium project is targeted for 2010, instead of its planned 2008 opening.
It's expected to cost the company $508-million to bring the mine into production, up significantly from the last year's estimate of $330-million. Cameco has already spent $234-million on construction so far, with another $274-million remaining.
But despite the increased capital costs, Cameco insists Cigar Lake, in northern Saskatchewan, remains a financially attractive project.
“While this extraordinary deposit presents its challenges, Cigar Lake will be developed and will enable Cameco to significantly increase its uranium production for years to come,” said Jerry Grandey, Cameco's president and CEO.
In addition to the capital costs, Cameco said its share of flood remediation is estimated at $46-million and will be expensed in the year they occur. The company spent and expensed $5-million of that amount in 2006.
Cameco said it will file a technical report on the mine's progress to the Canadian Securities Administrators' System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval (SEDAR) by the end of the month.
The flooding at Cigar Lake sent uranium prices soaring in 2006.
Last April, water flooded a shaft at Cigar Lake used mainly for underground ventilation. Then in October, two massive bulkheads failed to hold back water from a flood after a rock slide in a shaft about a half-kilometre underground, flooding the entire mine.
Last month, Cameco said two rigs on site had drilled eight of the 14 holes planned for reinforcing and sealing off the flooded area.
In 2006, Cameco saw its earnings fall by more than half that of the previous year. But its 2007 outlook remains rosy. It says its revenue from its uranium business is forecast to grow by 45 per cent and its fuel services business will be 20 per cent higher than that of 2006.
Things Can Get A Lot Hotter For Uranium, Still
Mar. 17, 2007
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, editor of FNArena.com
[Endret 19.03.07 19:26 av OldNick]
[Endret 20.03.07 00:44 av OldNick]
|Uran-priser på $150, 200 eller 500 ?
Uranium Stocks: Is this the Future?
Bob Kirtley MSc. email@example.com
March 20, 2007
This is an exercise in ‘Futuring’ a method of going forward over the next two years and trying to visualise the events and trends that will play a part in our investment strategy. Our conclusion could be a million miles away from reality and in time make us look rather foolish but that is a chance we are prepared to take. We have listened to a number of economists and financial pundits and are quit disappointed that their idea of a forecast is to take the price of uranium today and add another $5.00 to come with their revised forecast. Surely your pet cat could do that.
We will try to extrapolate the current trends regarding the supply and demand factors for uranium and therefore uranium stocks.
So what have we got to consider? Well the supply and demand situation is out of kilter in the order of about 2:1. Which means there is only one pound of uranium to feed two hungry mouths both demanding a pound each. There are new nuclear plants coming on line this year and the year after which is the time period that under consideration. Each of these new power plants requires a stockpile of uranium in the order of 2.5 years supply, another mouth to feed. The utilities will require their continuous uninterrupted supply to be maintained as they cannot close or take a ‘time out’ as this is not possible with nuclear power plants. We came across another new fund being formed, which intends to raise $100.00 million for the purpose of investing in uranium stocks. We know that is not uranium but it is indicative of the interest lurking under the surface looking for an angle to play. A straightforward investment in uranium itself may be more appealing as it is more straightforward and the fund manager could perceive uranium as being the easier route to take. So we are already in a tight spot regarding the demand, which we see as intensifying as these funds that are speculators with huge amounts of cash to invest take an interest.
These activities could be dwarfed by the actions of just one man. No not Warren Buffett, although if he took an interest in uranium then the market would certainly jump.
The man we have in mind is Jin Renqing, who?
Well he is a graduate of the Financial Department of the Central Institute of Finance and Banking, Beijing and a former Vice Mayor of Beijing and was appointed Minister of Finance for the Chinese government in March 2007. The Chinese government have already signalled to the financial world that they intend to implement a plan that will lessen their exposure to the US dollar and give their reserves a more balanced spread. And Jin is the man with that responsibility. We all know that we are talking over a trillion dollars which grows every day as China peddles its goods across the globe. So if Jin decides that China will need a small portion of its energy needs from nuclear energy then the biggest mouth in the world has just dropped in for tea. This man alone could double the price of uranium in a very short period of time.
So lets talk about the weather. We listened to a meteorological office broadcast yesterday for Britain and they were saying that 2007 could be the hottest summer ever recorded and its not like them to be as cavalier about their business as we are about ours, but just imagine those air conditioning units doing overtime.
Now throw in the possible disruption to the oil supplies, a dash of inflation and the dollar falling out of bed, it’s not a pretty sight is it?
The price of Uranium as it stands today:
CONCLUSION AND PREDICTIONS
For debating purposes we put forward this conclusion with the full intention that it is provocative and stimulating. Whether you agree with us or not does not really matter however getting involved does matter. If the coming together of the above circumstances happens simultaneously then we humbly suggest that the following could be the result.
The price of Uranium as it could be over the next two years.
From time now to the end of 2007 we could see an increase from $91 to $150/lb, followed by a further increase from $150 to $200/lb in 2008, with the possibility of $500/lb later on. Our prediction of $200/lb has been on the table for some time now (Since Uranium was $64) and we are sticking with it.
There exists a reasonable possibility that we could get a decent head wind and uranium stocks could easily perform like Formula One cars on a good day.
This could be the chance of a life time or a trendy dinner party topic that goes nowhere, so don’t be bashful or shy, have your say whether you agree with us or not.
For ideas on which uranium stocks to invest in, subscribe to the uranium stocks newsletter at www.uranium-stocks.net completely free of charge.
Bob Kirtley MSc. firstname.lastname@example.org
|Thorium da, noen som har peil på det? Stikkord: Ulefoss, reaktorteknologi.
Sorry, så ikke andre topic!
[Endret 20.03.07 08:36 av Stockamateur]
|Marathon chase for a uranium play
WHEN Hong Kong-based Crosby Capital Partners launched a takeover for uranium explorer Marathon Resources on July 5 last year they saw little to like about the target, prompting some to ask why - if it was such a bad operation - Crosby was trying to buy it.
Marathon was not a liquid stock, they moaned. Without Crosby's bid, there was no guarantee Marathon shareholders could liquidate their stock. Marathon was in the early stages of exploration; its Mt Gee resource in South Australia was in the lowest confidence category. Gosh, and there was all that regulatory uncertainty about mining uranium.
Crosby, through subsidiary Buttermere, offered 68c a share. Nine months later, it has had no takers. Marathon's price was soon above the bid level and, from November, it moved over $1 and got as high as $4.07, while Crosby just kept extending the 68c offer even though the uranium excitement just kept getting more frenetic.
Yesterday Buttermere upped the offer to $3.52, and Marathon shares roared again, climbing 46c to $3.76. The higher offer, Buttermere said, was recognition of booming uranium share prices.
But - get this - Buttermere maintains that "the underlying fundamentals" of Marathon have not changed significantly since the original bid was made. Yet it's worth paying five times more to get control.
As Fat Prophets said after the bid was lifted, the Crosby people are trying to spin that no value has been added to Marathon and the price rise is due only to the uranium frenzy. Mt Gee, in the Prophets' view, is one of the biggest undeveloped uranium deposits in Australia.
A URANIUM announcement worth noting came from NGM Resources. It is buying a company that holds six exploration licences in Niger - the world's third-largest uranium exporter.
NGM has a uranium project in Queensland, but Niger is one of the hot areas for exploration. The French locked up the most prospective areas for decades and did nothing, but now there's a stampede after the government in Niamey prised the ground loose. The Chinese have already picked up two big projects.
CHRIS Ringrose knows there is a view out there that his Cullen Resources has gone a joint venture too far, and that the company has been marked down to 3.6c because all its projects are being run by someone else.
But you could also argue that Cullen has lots of tickets in the exploration Lotto draw, that it's spread the risk and financial burden to other parties who have deeper pockets.
It is quite a list. BHP Billiton is earning 75 per cent at the Gunbarrel nickel project, Independence Group is earning a majority stake in two nickel searches while Minotaur Resources is spending $3 million south of Duchess in Queensland in the hunt for copper and gold. Then there's Aquila Resources and an American partner doing a pre-feasibility study on iron ore tenements owned by Cullen in the Pilbara, another iron ore deal with Fortescue Metals Group, a uranium joint venture with Thundelarra Exploration and a nickel-gold one with Hannans Reward.
This week Cullen applied for 17 new uranium exploration licences. The 15 in Western Australia will be owned by a subsidiary, Montrose Resources. This is a fishing expedition to see if anyone wants to farm in - and issue another Lotto ticket - or whether Montrose should join the list of uranium IPOs.
IT is getting closer to decision time at Image Resources - a momentous one for the junior. The choice: sell one of the most exciting mineral sands finds in many a year for a one-off windfall or do the hard yards of becoming a producer.
Great drilling results keep coming out but the market quickly gets bored with a story until it goes to the next level. The stock barely moved this week with more good news from Cooljarloo North in Western Australia even though the grades were 5-10times the average being mined next door at the Tiwest heavy minerals operation.
Image may need to put a figure on what is there before the stock gets another big movement. One indicator that it may go down the road of becoming a producer is the recent hiring of a resource geologist with the express purpose of getting some hard figures together.
The real unknown is what the people at Iluka Resources think. That company has seen its mineral sands assets in Western Australia go into steep decline. The question is whether Iluka accepts that with resignation and focuses on South Australia and Victoria, or casts around for new resources in the west and makes Image an offer it can't refuse.
Not that Iluka is the only possible interested party. Image has recently been approached by some large Chinese corporations.
|Uranium to top $1bn 'by end of decade'
March 22, 2007
THE uranium industry's peak body expects exports to eclipse $1 billion within the next decade as mining companies push to fill the gaps between world uranium supply and demand.
“Australia cannot isolate itself form the search for additional energy sources,” Australian Uranium Association executive director, Michael Angwin told a conference in Adelaide today.
“Significantly, middle Australia has shifted ground considerably and positively on uranium exploration and mining and there is now a much larger groundswell of support for an expansion of this potential,” Mr Angwin said.
“This shift has occurred under the influence of a high level of economic understanding, including the link between jobs and exports, awareness about climate change and growing appreciation that uranium does not produce carbon dioxide emissions in generating electricity.
“Uranium demand is expected to increase by 50 per cent in the next 25 years and will exceed supply within the next decade, allowing an opportunity for Australia to double its uranium exports and double its uranium earnings within the next few years.”
South Australia's mineral resources minister Paul Holloway said the nation needed to take advantage of its competitive position after a surge in projects over the past three years.
Mr Holloway said Australia was well placed to lead the global trade but other countries with less regard for the appropriate safeguards would step in if Australia did not seize the opportunity, he said.
“Uranium is about as common as tin and is fairly widely distributed,” the minister told a uranium industry conference. “We're very fortunate to have a large share of the world's resources, but it's not unique, and we have the opportunity of supplying that to the world.”
|En veldig bra artikkel på The Oil Drum om Peak Uranium, gode argumenter, selv om jeg ikke helt er enig i konklusjonene de drar.
De mangler nok gode nok data til å dømme U-gruve industrien foreløpig (tror jeg).
Uranium Depletion and Nuclear Power: Are We at Peak Uranium?
Posted by Prof. Goose on March 21, 2007 - 11:00am
About the Energy Watch Group
This is the first of a series of papers by the Energy Watch Group which are addressed to investigate future energy supply and demand patterns. The Energy Watch Group consists of independent scientists and experts who investigate sustainable concepts for global energy supply. The group is initiated by the German member of parliament Hans-Josef Fell.
Any forecast of the development of nuclear power in the next 25 years has to concentrate on two aspects, the supply of uranium and the addition of new reactor capacity. At least within this time horizon, neither nuclear breeding reactors nor thorium reactors will play a significant role because of the long lead times for their development and market penetration. This assessment results in the conclusion that in the short term, until about 2015, the long lead times of new and the decommissioning of ageing reactors perform the barrier for fast extension, and after about 2020 severe uranium supply shortages become likely which, again will limit the extension of nuclear energy.
Figure 1: Reasonably assured (RAR), inferred (IR) and already produced uranium resources
Figure 6: History and forecast of uranium production based on reported resources. The smallest area covers 1,900 kt uranium which have the status of proved reserves while the data uncertainty increases towards the largest area based on 4,700 kt uranium which represents possible reserves.
Les mer her
Hovedreferansen for Prof. Goose artikkel linket over, er denne:
URANIUM RESOURCES AND NUCLEAR ENERGY
Energy Watch Group
About the Energy Watch Group
This is the first of a series of papers by the Energy Watch Group which are addressed to investigate a realistic picture of future energy supply and demand patterns.
The Energy Watch Group consists of independent scientists and experts who investigate sustainable concepts for global energy supply. The group is initiated by the German member of parliament Hans-Josef Fell.
Dr. Harry Lehmann, World Council for Renewable Energy
Stefan Peter, Institute for Sustainable Solutions and Innovations
Jörg Schindler, Managing director of Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik GmbH
Dr. Werner Zittel, Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik GmbH
Prof. Dr. Jürgen Schmid, Institute for Solar Energy Technics
World Watch Institute
World Council for Renewable Energy
Swiss Energy Foundation
Responsibility for this report:
Dr. Werner Zittel, Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik GmbH
Jörg Schindler, Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik GmbH
Nuclear plans may stall on uranium shortage
Global demand for enriched material running up against underinvestment
SHAWN MCCARTHY, GLOBAL ENERGY REPORTER, Globe and Mail
March 22, 2007
OTTAWA -- Growing global competition for scarce enriched uranium threatens to derail a much-heralded nuclear renaissance in the United States and around the world, says an industry researcher from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
In a report released yesterday, MIT researcher Thomas Neff said there has been 20 years of under-investment in uranium production and enrichment, resulting in a tightening of supply that has driven prices up eightfold.
The shortfall leaves a gap between the potential increase in demand for nuclear energy -- which is particularly strong in Asia -- and the ability to supply fuel for it.
"There has been a nuclear-industry myopia; they didn't take a long-term view," Mr. Neff said in his report.
In a telephone interview from Cambridge, Mass., the veteran consultant said he has had extensive discussions with utility executives who rely on nuclear power, "and they're getting freaked out."
Russia, China and India have each embarked on major nuclear building programs -- Russia alone is planning 20 new reactors -- and that increased demand for enriched uranium will put a tremendous strain on the market.
Mined uranium, before being used in most reactor types or in nuclear weapons,must be further processed--or enriched-- to isolate the uranium-235 isotope.
Mr. Neff said U.S. utility executives tend to take a shorter-term approach than government-backed utilities in Asia, which could put a brake on their ability to build new reactors.
"The Chinese and the Russians are in almost every potential uranium-producing country looking for joint ventures and long-term supply arrangements," he said. American utilities have become complacent. "They've never seen anything like this. By the time they get out there and say, 'I need to buy something,' they're going to see a lot of it locked up by the other guys."
[Endret 23.03.07 12:47 av OldNick]
[Endret 23.03.07 14:02 av OldNick]
[Endret 28.03.07 08:14 av OldNick]
But after years of virtually no growth in the nuclear industry, analysts expect a mini-boom with the addition of at least 65 new reactors in the next 20 years, increasing electricity output by 20 per cent. And that figure would climb if governments get serious about reducing greenhouse gas emissions and insist that new coal plants include expensive carbon-dioxide reduction technology.
In recent years, uranium production met only 60 per cent of the demand from utilities, with the rest of demand coming from inventories, recycling and the conversion of plutonium from former Soviet missile warheads. But those supplies are also drying up, Mr. Neff said.
Production from uranium mines actually fell by 5 per cent last year from 2005, despite a sharp run-up in prices. At the same time, new mines have been slow to come on line -- start-up at Cameco Corp.'s rich Cigar Lake mine has been delayed two years until 2010 due to flooding.
All that spells higher costs -- and potential supply disruptions -- for utilities that rely on nuclear power.
In Canada, Ontario is most dependent on nuclear power, getting more than 50 per cent of its electricity from an aging fleet of Candu reactors. And Ontario Power Generation is looking to build at least two more reactors at its Darlington site.
OPG spokesman John Earl said the utility is aware of the looming supply crunch for uranium.
"But we are well-positioned for the future with long-term contracts," he said.
Mr. Earl noted that, unlike the U.S. reactors, the province's Candus do not use enriched uranium for fuelling, and therefore it is unaffected by the worldwide shortage of enrichment capacity.
In the U.S., President George W. Bush had called for a major expansion of the country's nuclear reactor fleet, and the government is now offering subsidies to kick-start a new round of building.
Jeff Combs, president of Ux Consulting Company LLC, said the administration has not come to grips with the looming shortfall in enriched uranium, even as it encourages utilities to construct reactors.
"You can have your reactors, but are you going to have the fuel to power them? That could be a problem."
James Dines om Uran (1.5 min video)
The Dines Letter
Recent Sales Drive Record Uranium Price Higher
TradeTech Raises Weekly Spot Price to US$95/Pound
Julie Ickes, StockInterview.com
Mar. 25, 2007
TradeTech’s chart shows the parabolic uranium price rise continues. TradeTech posts the weekly spot price on the consulting service’s website at ww.uranium.info
Is it springtime euphoria or March Madness? History is being made every few weeks in the uranium pricing market. Friday’s announcement by TradeTech’s Nuclear Market Review magazine, raising the weekly spot uranium price to US$95/pound demonstrates another milestone. Soon, it won’t matter whether comparisons are made in constant U.S. dollars or inflation-adjusted currency.
Les mer her
World's hottest uranium stocks
In a benchmark report, RBC Capital Markets provides the full nine yards on 21 publicly listed uranium companies.
Author: Barry Sergeant
27 Mar, 2007
JOHANNESBURG - Prices for uranium (uranium oxide, U3O8, to be exact) have soared in the past few years as record crude oil prices have forced public and private sectors to announce rafts of nuclear reactors as a cost-effective energy alternative. Long-established uranium producers have benefited enormously; the market capitalization of the No 1 producer, Cameco, is close to US$14bn.
Uranium prices have grown ten fold in just five years. Between the early 1990s and 2004, uranium markets were in a supply/demand deficit, balanced by inventories held by nuclear generators and traders. Prices started turning in 2001, from between $5 and $10/pound, to current quotes around the $80/pound mark. Over the past five years, Cameco's NYSE stock price has increased from less than $3 a share to more that $45, with current quotes around $40.25.
The global uranium rush has triggered an explosion in exploration, along with entrepreneurs dusting off dormant projects, and rushing to the market. This raises serious questions of potential risk for equity investors, confronted by a plethora of choices.
In a major new report, RBC Capital Markets (RBCCM) notes that "many uranium exploration and development projects are being advanced by numerous companies", and finds it "inevitable that some of these companies will successfully bring their projects into production in the coming years - something the market will need in the future to bridge the supply/demand gap that we expect to exist after 2013".
There are many ways of valuing mining companies, and uranium has been out of fashion for so long that a number of additional risks may require consideration. In an examination of 21 listed uranium stocks, RBCCM has chosen from several different valuation methodologies, depending on the company. For uranium companies with existing operations, a forward EPS (earnings per share) or CFPS (cash flow per share) multiple is applied, reflecting valuation relative to peers and the market cycle.
For companies developing new projects, RBCCM often applies a net asset value (NAV) approach, sometimes coupled with a forward EPS multiple. For exploration companies where it is too early to calculate an NAV, RBCCM looks to the enterprise value (EV) per pound of U3O8 in resource. While the EV/pound metric is "easy" to calculate, RBCCM cautions that it should not be used in isolation.
[Endret 25.03.07 12:27 av OldNick]
[Endret 26.03.07 14:27 av OldNick]
[Endret 28.03.07 08:15 av OldNick]
[Endret 28.03.07 19:06 av OldNick]
Cameco is, of course, the world's No 1 producer of uranium oxide. Its principal interests comprise Canada's McArthur River and the flood-affected Cigar Lake, Inkai in Kazakhstan, and the US's Crow Butte and Smith Ranch/Highland operations. Rio Tinto, one of the world's biggest diversified resources entities (along with BHP Billiton and Anglo American) rates as No 2 world producer of uranium oxide, thanks to its stake in Energy Resources of Australia (ERA), and its 69% interest in the Rossing mine in Namibia.
France-based Areva is No 3, and like Cameco, has interests in Canada's McArthur River and Cigar Lake. KazAtomProm rates as No 4 producer, thanks to its interest, like Cameco, in Inkai. BHP Billiton is next on the list, followed by TVEL (Russia), Navoi (Uzbekistan), Vostgok (Ukraine), Nufcor (South Africa) and CNNC (China). There are also lesser-known producers of uranium oxide, such as AngloGold Ashanti, as a by-product from its gold mines in the Vaal River district in South Africa.
These big names among uranium producers present at least two problems for the investor: many are not listed, and where listed, uranium income, while substantial, may not be material to the stock as a whole. BHP Billiton, the world's biggest diversified resources stock, is a prime example. Its huge Olympic Dam operation in Australia, run primarily as a copper producer, owns by far the biggest uranium oxide reserves in the world. Its uranium income is, however, substantially "diluted" by income from a number of other divisions.
As such, 21 listed stocks with exposure to uranium may be considered as investable. There are six with a market capitalisation of $2bn or more: Cameco, ERA, Paladin Resources, UrAsia, Denison Mines, and sxr Uranium One. Following in terms of market capitalisaton are UraMin, First Uranium, Aurora, Energy Metals, Mega Uranium, Laramide Resources, Forsys Metals Corporation, Ur-Energy, Tournigan Gold, Strathmore Minerals, Khan Resources, Western Prospector, OmegaCorp, Berkeley Resources, and Uranium Power Corporation. sxr Uranium One is currently involved in potential corporate action with UrAsia.
RBCCM rates just five of these stocks, starting with Cameco, as "top pick, above average risk". Risks that are seen as applying to ERA can be seen as equally important for all other uranium stocks: fluctuations in the uranium price, currency, and project capex (capital expenditure) and opex (energy, material and manpower costs).
First Uranium is notable for its absence of "prior corporate history", along with "no meaningful comparisons in the market and no meaningful short-term cash flow". Paladin Resources faces notable hurdles at its Langer Heinrich and Kayelekera operations, while sxr Uranium One will be carefully studied for its ability to bring Dominion and Honeymoon into production on time and on budget.
Back on the fundamentals, RBCCM believes that uranium oxide prices are in the "middle" of a "bull market", with 2007 forecast prices expected to exceed $100/pound.
There is a cautionary note, in that prices could move beyond that threshold.
High uranium prices apply to fraction of market
Mar. 28, 2007 - Reuters
JOHANNESBURG — Uranium prices are being pushed higher by consumers and speculators holding stocks while output is delivered at a fraction of the spot price under old contracts, a conference heard on Wednesday.
“Every time 100,000 lbs comes up for auction, investors are clambering to get it,” Charles Scorer, chief executive of uranium sales and trading firm Nufcor, told the Uranium Africa 2007 conference in Johannesburg.
The spot price for uranium jumped by $4 to $95 a lb this week, a tenfold surge in five years.
But that price does not represent some 80-90 per cent of uranium being delivered under long-term contracts agreed five to seven years ago at $25-$35 a lb, Mr. Scorer said.
“The full impact has not yet been seen by the generating industry, it will take a number of years for these old contracts to be replaced.”
New producers were smiling, agreeing to very beneficial contracts amid a shortfall in supplies.
The new Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia that just shipped its first yellowcake this month sealed market-related contracts that have no ceiling at all, said Robert Wallace, chief executive of Yellowcake Plc, which invests in uranium firms. The Langer Heinrich mine is owned by Australia's Paladin Resources.
Both Mr. Scorer and Mr. Wallace said it was difficult to forecast future prices due to the thin market, although fundamentals were very positive due to a fresh wave of interest in nuclear power and a shortage of fuel for the reactors.
“The price is being set on the short-term sale of small quantities of material. . .. Anyone who is forecasting a certain price for some point in time, I don't know how they can do it because we're in a vacuum at the moment.”
Mr. Wallace said the uranium market was not very transparent, with no official stocks data like on the London Metal Exchange and a small universe of buyers and sellers.
“No one knows where they stand in uranium, it's a chaotic supply chain,” he said.
Although hedge funds were scrambling to buy material on the spot market to add to their stocks, Mr. Scorer said investor stocks were not large compared to the market as a whole.
Investors have known stocks of 15.5 million lbs of uranium, equal to around 8 per cent of annual production.
Nufcor Uranium Plc, a listed unit that holds around 2.3 million pounds of uranium stocks for investment purposes, lends out its holdings to consumers hit by shortages in the sector, Mr. Scorer added.
Many consumers are scrambling to find material after the Cigar Lake project owned by Canada's Cameco Corp, the world's No. 1 uranium producer, flooded in October.
[Endret 29.03.07 17:43 av OldNick]
“Our fund is already acting like a uranium bank, providing overdraft facilities to creditworthy parties,” Scorer said.
But hedge funds with holdings of around 5-6 million pounds are not expected to lend out to the market, he added.
Nuclear Power Companies Hunker Down As Uranium Prices Soar
Mar 30, 2007
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Supply disruptions and dwindling inventories have created a perfect storm in the uranium market. Now electric utilities are hoping they can wait out the bad weather.
The price of uranium, the fuel of nuclear power plants, has soared to $95 a pound, from less than $20 three years ago. Market participants say they expect uranium to become even more expensive, at least in the short term.
Recent disruptions at two of the world's largest uranium mines have seriously threatened global supply, putting added pressure on prices at a time when new production, until very recently, has been almost non-existent.
Some of the industry's biggest nuclear operators are simply trying to get through the next few years without buying too much uranium.
"There's a period where the market is going to be very ugly from a buyer's standpoint," said Frank Rives, director of nuclear fuel at Entergy Corp. (ETR), the second-largest nuclear power plant owner in the U.S. "But in the long term, pricing will settle into a more reasonable area."
The hope is that a wave of new uranium production, spurred by current high prices, will cool down the market before too many of the long-term contracts nuclear power operators have signed to lock in supplies at lower prices, expire.
"The impact of the rising prices isn't now, it's later," said Jim Malone, vice president of nuclear fuels at Exelon Corp. (EXC), the largest nuclear operator in the U.S. "The prices in the contracts we have are reasonable."
Malone said producers across the globe are offering prices in long-term contracts of around $45 per pound, much lower than spot market offers, but double the price a few years ago.
"I think we can, so to speak, weather the storm of these very high prices," Malone said.
The cost of fuel is a relatively small component of the total cost of operating a nuclear plant, much smaller than the fuel costs for coal or natural gas-fired power plants. Malone says total nuclear fuel costs - which include the uranium itself and the process of enriching it into a more energy intensive form - are 25%-28% of total production costs.
If fuel prices don't moderate, nuclear plants will be somewhat less profitable, particularly if the enrichment process becomes more expensive, as expected by the Nuclear Energy Institute, which represents nuclear power companies and uranium suppliers.
"We anticipate that you'll start seeing an increase," said Felix Killar, the institute's director of fuel supply.
Nuclear power companies that operate in regulated states can probably recover the higher costs of uranium from ratepayers. But nuclear operators in competitive markets, such as Exelon, Entergy, FPL Group Inc. (FPL) and Dominion Resources (D), will see higher fuel costs eat into their profit margins.
Despite the hope of uranium buyers, new production hasn't yet reached the market. Production in 2006 actually dropped from 2005. Total global production is now about 100 million pounds a year, compared with global demand of 180 million pounds.
For years, the difference between supply and demand was made up with extra supply from government nuclear weapons programs that was sold to the private sector. But this inventory has been steadily dwindling and, recently, gobbled up by speculators looking to profit from rising prices.
Supplies In Jeopardy
The supply situation took a sudden downturn last October, when heavy rains and flooding prevented the opening of the massive Cigar Lake mine in northern Saskatchewan, Canada. That mine was expected to produce 18 million pounds of uranium a year, or about 10% of global demand. Mine owner Cameco Corp. says Cigar Lake won't be started until 2010.
The market endured another blow at the beginning of March, when a cyclone struck the Ranger mine in Australia, which produces 14.3 million pounds of uranium a year. Energy Resources of Australia, the mine's owner, declared force majeure on deliveries and said production would be impacted into the second half of 2007.
"Utilities are scrambling to cover their supplies, and at the same time trying not to show too much buying interest," said Kevin Smith, who connects buyers and sellers at the energy brokerage Evolution Markets.
The disruptions at the two mines highlight the current perilous state of the global uranium market. Because prices were low for many years, only the lowest- cost producers at the largest mines could afford to expand production. That means uranium production today is now highly concentrated at a few massive mines, mainly in Australia and Canada. A disruption at any of them could be disastrous for uranium supply worldwide.
"Up to 85% of the supply comes from large projects," said Jim Cornell, chief executive of Nukem Inc., a uranium trading firm. Cornell suggested the following comparison: "Say tomorrow, Iran stopped exporting oil - you can imagine what it would do to oil prices."
Call For Help
Adding to the shortage is the entry of hedge funds and other speculators into the market. These participants have been buying up supplies of uranium in the hopes of benefiting from rising prices, to the irritation of nuclear power companies that are scouring the marketplace for supply.
The Nuclear Energy Institute sent a letter to the U.S. Department of Energy in February asking the department to create a "Strategic Nuclear Fuel Reserve" that can only be accessed by commercial nuclear reactors.
[Endret 30.03.07 22:14 av OldNick]
Some in the industry believe speculators may ultimately help the market by assuring that prices are high enough for producers to develop new mines that otherwise wouldn't be economic at lower prices.
"The reality is, (the speculators) have sent an amplified signal to the market to encourage exploration and production," Malone said. "In the longer term they've done us a favor, though some of my colleagues have cringed at the short- term costs."
In the long term, market participants are looking to significant new uranium demand from a global surge in the construction of nuclear plants. Russia, China and India all have plans to build new nuclear plants. Several U.S. companies also plan to build new plants. Nuclear power, which doesn't produce greenhouse gases or rely on foreign fossil fuels, is now seen as crucial to satisfying electricity demand as global warming and conflicts in the Middle East become greater concerns.
"We still don't know to what extent all of these new reactor builds that are planned are going to be fulfilled," said Cornell of Nukem. "That'll be the million-dollar question two to three years down the road."
New Uranium Fund
Dean Orrico, managing director, Middlefield Capital
April 5, 2007, 10:10 (5 min. video på BNN.ca)
Link til Middlefield og omtale av fondet.
Fondet kan handles på Toronto TSX, under ticker "UF.UN"
Og - utfyllende til bjørneklo's melding under, siste auksjon hos Mestena Uranium....
Mestena Auction Blows Uranium Price Past $100 Mark
New Spot Uranium Price Reaches $US113/Pound
April 7, 2007
By Julie Ickes, StockInterview.com
Mine floods, speculators and utilities seeking near-term delivery drove the spot uranium price to a new record after bids were opened on April 3rd. Courtesy of TradeTech, www.uranium.info
The shot heard around the uranium world comes from Corpus Christi, Texas. A modest lot of 100 thousand pounds U3O8, offered by tiny privately owned Texas-based Mestena Uranium LLC, drove bidders to establish a new record spot uranium price. “The spot uranium price rose dramatically this week, jumping $18 to $113/pound U3O8, following the results of the sealed-bid auction,” according to Nuclear Market Review (NMR) editor Treva Klingbiel. “This is the largest single increase since uranium prices were first reported.” The spot uranium price jumped by nearly 19 percent this past week.
Since the beginning of the year, the spot uranium price has risen by 57 percent. By comparison, nickel has only increased by about 35 percent year to date. Nickel leads all metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME). In January 2001, spot uranium could be purchased for as little as US$6.40. Since then, yellowcake, industry slang for the processed nuclear fuel, has jumped by more than 1700 percent! According to Gene Clark, chief executive of TradeTech, which publishes Nuclear Market Review, “We are about $2 short of the all-time high in inflation-adjusted dollars.”
Bidders hoping to purchase the Mestena uranium came from all market groups, according to NMR. Uranium producers, traders, investors and utilities bid for the 100 thousand pound lot. Klingbiel gave three reasons for the aggressive bidding: ERA’s recent mine flooding, continued interest from speculators and utilities seeking significant quantities for near-term delivery. New demand from a U.S. utility also emerged in the long-term uranium market this week. The long-term uranium price remains unchanged at US$85/pound. TradeTech posts the weekly spot and long-term uranium price on the consulting service’s website at www.uranium.info.
[Endret 10.04.07 09:47 av OldNick]
[Endret 10.04.07 09:52 av OldNick]
[Endret 10.04.07 15:17 av OldNick]
|$113.00 US$/lb U3O8 equivalent Up $18.00
[Endret 07.04.07 10:35 av bjørneklo]
[Endret 07.04.07 10:47 av bjørneklo]
|How long will nuclear energy last?
These facts come from a 1983 article by Bernard Cohen.
Nuclear energy, assuming breeder reactors, will last for several billion years, i.e. as long as the sun is in a state to support life on earth.
Here are the basic facts.
1. In 1983, uranium cost $40 per pound. The known uranium reserves at that price would suffice for light water reactors for a few tens of years. Since then more rich uranium deposits have been discovered including a very big one in Canada. At $40 per pound, uranium contributes about 0.2 cents per kwh to the cost of electricity. (Electricity retails between 5 cents and 10 cents per kwh in the U.S.)
2. Breeder reactors use uranium more than 100 times as efficiently as the current light water reactors. Hence much more expensive uranium can be used. At $1,000 per pound, uranium would contribute only 0.03 cents per kwh, i.e. less than one percent of the cost of electricity. At that price, the fuel cost would correspond to gasoline priced at half a cent per gallon.
3. How much uranium is available at $1,000 per pound?
There is plenty in the Conway granites of New England and in shales in Tennessee, but Cohen decided to concentrate on uranium extracted from seawater - presumably in order to keep the calculations simple and certain. Cohen (see the references in his article) considers it certain that uranium can be extracted from seawater at less than $1000 per pound and considers $200-400 per pound the best estimate.
In terms of fuel cost per million BTU, he gives (uranium at $400 per pound 1.1 cents , coal $1.25, OPEC oil $5.70, natural gas $3-4.)
4. How much uranium is there in seawater?
Seawater contains 3.3x10^(-9) (3.3 parts per billion eller 0.00000033%) of uranium, so the 1.4x10^18 tonne of seawater (som er 1.400.000.000 mrd tonn) contains 4.6x10^9 tonne of uranium (4.6 mrd eller 4.600 mill tonn). All the world's electricity usage, 650GWe could therefore be supplied by the uranium in seawater for 7 million years.
5. However, rivers bring more uranium into the sea all the time, in fact 3.2x10^4 tonne per year (32.000 tpa).
6. Cohen calculates that we could take 16,000 tonne per year of uranium from seawater, which would supply 25 times the world's present electricity usage and twice the world's present total energy consumption. He argues that given the geological cycles of erosion, subduction and uplift, the supply would last for 5 billion years with a withdrawal rate of 6,500 tonne per year. The crust contains 6.5x10^13 tonne of uranium (som er 64.000 mrd tonn U).
[Komm: Tar ikke helt disse tallene. Dagens årsforbruk av naturlig U3O8 er ca. 180 mill. lb, dvs. ca. 80.000 tpa. Det stemmer dersom man regner at all U er fisjonerbar, noe som kan gjøres med breederteknologi. Naturlig U inneholder 0.7% U235 og 99.3% U238, og den siste er ikke fisjonerbar i dagens reaktorer.]
7. He comments that lasting 5 billion years, i.e. longer than the sun will support life on earth, should cause uranium to be considered a renewable resource.
8. Here's a Japanese site discussing extracting uranium from seawater
* Cohen neglects decay of the uranium. Since uranium has a half-life of 4.46 billion years, about half will have decayed by his postulated 5 billion years.
* He didn't mention thorium, also usable in breeders. There is 4 times as much in the earth's crust as there is uranium. There's less thorium in seawater than there is uranium.
* He did mention fusion, but remarks that it hasn't been developed yet. He has certainly provided us plenty of time to develop it.
The main point to be derived from Cohen's article is that energy is not a problem even in the very long run. In particular, energy intensive solutions to other human problems are entirely acceptable.
Cohen's web site contains links to many of his articles. He's a particular expert on radiation hazards. His 1990 book The Nuclear Energy Option is on the web page. Its chapter on solar energy is especially interesting in its description of the 1990 hopes for solar energy.
Bernard Cohen is Professor Emeritus of Physics at Pittsburgh University. He is former president of the Health Physics Society, the main scientific society concerned with radiation safety. He has written several books on nuclear energy.
Several of Cohen's papers are reproduced on Russ Paielli's nuclear page.
[Endret 16.04.07 08:37 av OldNick]
[Endret 16.04.07 08:46 av OldNick]
|Global Uranium Resources to Meet Projected Demand
Latest Edition of "Red Book" Predicts Consistent Supply Up to 2025
2 June, 2006
A sulfuric acid plant at the Ranger uranium mine in Australia leaches uranium from crushed ore. (Photo credit: Energy Resources of Australia, Ltd).
Global uranium resources are more than adequate to meet projected requirements, according to the latest edition of a world reference guide on uranium resources published just recently.
Uranium 2005: Resources, Production and Demand - also called the "Red Book" - estimates the total identified amount of conventional uranium stock, which can be mined for less than USD 130 per kg, to be about 4.7 million tonnes. Based on the 2004 nuclear electricity generation rate of demand the amount is sufficient for 85 years, the study states. Fast reactor technology would lengthen this period to over 2500 years.
However, world uranium resources in total are considered to be much higher. Based on geological evidence and knowledge of uranium in phosphates the study considers more than 35 million tonnes is available for exploitation.
The spot price of uranium has also increased fivefold since 2001, fuelling major new initiatives and investment in exploration. Worldwide exploration expenditures in 2004 totalled over US$ 130 million, an increase of almost 40% compared to 2002, and close to US$ 200 million in 2005. This can be expected to lead to further additions to the uranium resource base. A significant number of new mining projects have also been announced that could substantially boost the world´s uranium production capacity.
In the longer term, continuing advances in nuclear technology will allow a substantially better utilisation of the uranium resources. Reactor designs are being developed and tested that are capable of extracting more than 30 times the energy from the uranium than today´s reactors.
By 2025, world nuclear energy capacity is expected to grow to between 450 GWe (+22%) and 530 GWe (+44%) from the present generating capacity of about 370 GWe. This will raise annual uranium requirements to between 80 000 tonnes and 100 000 tonnes. The currently identified resources are adequate to meet this expansion.
Uranium 2005: Resources, Production and Demand is jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the IAEA. It is the recognised world reference on uranium and is based on official information received from 43 countries. This 21st edition presents the results of a thorough review of world uranium supplies and demand as of 1st January 2005 and provides statistics on uranium resources, exploration, production and demand as well as projected requirements up to 2025. It provides substantial new information from all major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and North America. This edition also focuses on recent price and production increases that could signal major changes in the industry.
The 2005 edition was presented 1 June 2006 at the OECD-NEA in Paris, France at a press conference jointly hosted by Mr. Luis E. Echávarri, OECD-NEA Director-General, and Mr. Yuri Sokolov, IAEA Deputy Director-General for Nuclear Energy. The guide will be available - for ordering or for download as electronic book - from the OECD-NEA web site.
Uranium Bull Market Too Overheated?
By Jon A. Nones, ResourceInvestor.com
12 Apr, 2007
LAS VEGAS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Doug Casey, chairman of Casey Research, told listeners at the Uranium Stock Summit that there are three stages of a bull market: Stealth mode, worry mode and mania mode. He said the uranium bull market is entering the mania mode.
Although the bull cycle is nearing and end, Casey said a lot of money can still be made. He said that mania stage in the dotcom era lasted about 2 to 3 years, and some of the best profits came out of it.
Rick Rule of Global Resource Investments today told listeners that we are already in the midst of a uranium mania, “an insane mania.” He recommended selling.
Casey introduced Rule as one who perpetually sells early. Rule agreed.
“I always buy too early, I always sell too early,” he said. “My yearly return is 60%, so I’m going to continue to sell early.”
Les mer her
Top Uranium Stock Picks
By Jon A. Nones, ResourceInvestor.com
12 Apr, 2007
LAS VEGAS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Professionals at the inaugural Uranium Stock Summit in Las Vegas, Nevada agreed that the secular bull market in uranium is in the final stages. But these experts also agreed there is still money to be made. Their advice: Be selective.
Jim Mustard of Haywood Securities, Rick Rule of Global Resource Investments, Kevin Bambrough of Sprott Asset Management, Phil O’Neill of MP1 Capital and Marin Katusa of Casey Research offered suggestions on investment strategy with insight into their top three uranium picks.
Les mer her
[Endret 14.04.07 20:31 av OldNick]
[Endret 14.04.07 20:35 av OldNick]
|Intervju med en "moderat ekspert", tror på utflating i priosene, og at de aldri skal falle tilbake til $20-30 nivå.
Uranium Industry Expert Talks Shop With StockInterview
Yellowcake Mining Director: ‘I Wouldn’t Lend My Name to a Bogus Junior’
by James Finch, StockInterview.com
April 12, 2007
Part One of a Two-Part Feature
Dr. Robert Rich has consulted or worked directly for BHP Billiton, Sumitomo, Ontario Power and several U.S. utilities. He has been involved in nearly every step of the nuclear fuel cycle, including uranium projects development, marketing, conversion, enrichment, transportation and spent fuel disposal. He helped bring the first shipment of Russian-enriched uranium to the U.S. in the mid-1980s and helped host the first nuclear delegation to the U.S. from the People’s Republic of China.
Les mer her
Desperately Seeking 500,000 Pounds Uranium
Shut-Out Utility Needs to Buy U3O8 Fast
April 15, 2007
By Julie Ickes, StockInterview.com
According to Friday’s Nuclear Market Review (NMR), many market participants were left stunned by the recent record jump in the weekly spot uranium price. The market has increasingly diverged between those who have U3O8 and those without. Utilities with existing supply contracts “are heaving a sigh of relief,” NMR editor Treva Klingbiel wrote. And those trying to find uranium in today’s climate “are forced to face the reality of a seller’s market,” she said.
Is there pity for one market participant, who is now scrambling for ‘very near term delivery’ of nearly 500 thousand pounds U3O8? Probably not. This buyer must compete with 7 others hoping to secure about 3.2 million pounds of U3O8 equivalent.
NMR reports, “Sellers remain reluctant to sell significant quantities today.” By waiting longer, sellers expect to get a higher price for the material they hold. After the previous week’s astonishing price jump, the spot uranium market “was exceptionally quiet,” according to Klingbiel. The spot uranium price indicator remained unchanged at US$113/pound. TradeTech posts changes in the weekly spot uranium price on the consulting service’s website, at www.uranium.info
Utility Pricing Climate
Utilities remain skeptical about the long-term pricing of uranium. This weekend’s Barron’ article, about the crisis nuclear utilities face, quotes Exelon Corp’s (EXC) Tom Malone and Entergy’s (ETR) Frank Rives. Both believe uranium pricing should ‘settle down.’ Malone quoted a long-term uranium price of $40/pound. Utilities accustomed to lower pricing levels and wishing for uranium’s return to a more advantageous price level for themselves, may be waiting for more than a few years. In conversations we had with TradeTech’s Gene Clark, equilibrium might not take place until 2017.
We provided TradeTech’s Uranium Price Forecast through 2008 in Chapter Two of our soon-to-be-released Uranium Outlook publication. Going out further, uranium production should not reach 230 million pounds U3O8 until about 2017. And there are many disturbing developments in numerous areas, which could substantially lower this production forecast. Foremost are the difficulties BHP Billiton (BHP) may have in transforming Olympic Dam into an open pit uranium mine.
Some utilities are again taking the wait-and-see attitude about higher uranium costs. This strategy has backfired over the past year because a number of countries planned to increase or add civilian nuclear power programs. Now the Arab Gulf States want nuclear energy, adding to the number of countries seeking to obtain uranium. “Everybody’s going for nuclear programs,” Jordan’s King Abdullah II told an Israeli newspaper.
Against the advice of some experts, we included a special section in our publication, “Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market,” predicting a rise of civilian nuclear energy in the Middle East. Turkey plans three nuclear reactors, hoping to start construction later this year on the first one. After Russian President Putin visited Saudi Arabia in February, offering ‘nuclear aid,’ will U.S. utilities now also be forced to compete for Kazakh uranium against the Arab Gulf States? It appears global deals are being arranged on a country-to-country basis, and U.S. utilities are coming up short.
Environmentalists: Nuclear Friend or Foe?
This past week, Jim Marston, the Texas director of climate initiatives for Environmental Defense told the ‘Living on Earth’ environmental show, “We have come to the conclusion that the threat of global warming is so severe and the time for action is so short that we have to look at all low carbon options again including nuclear.” His comments were broadcast on more than 300 public radio stations in all fifty states across the U.S. The show’s theme was entitled, “TXU Turns Nuclear.”
Does this mean environmentalists are switching to nuclear energy? No. Some still cling to atavistic attitudes. One environmentalist interviewed compared a switch to nuclear on par with giving up cigarette smoking and taking up crack.
Les mer her
[Endret 16.04.07 11:45 av OldNick]
|Nymex to launch uranium futures contract, sources say
The Associated Press
April 13, 2007
NEW YORK: Nymex Holdings Inc. is planning to list a uranium futures contract, people familiar with the situation said Friday, as the energy and metals exchange looks to capitalize on surging interest in the nuclear fuel.
The futures contract would provide nuclear power plants with a vehicle to hedge against rising prices that have surged more than tenfold in the past four years as commercial stockpiles dwindle and more plants are built. It would also provide a forum to bet directly on gains and falls in the price of uranium, rather than speculating on the fortunes of miners.
The contract would be cash-settled, eliminating the need for a delivery point for the radioactive material, the sources said.
"Uranium has been the market to be in over the past couple of years," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp., which trades both energy and metals from its Chicago office. "Whenever you get a run like this in something that's not listed" exchanges see it as a chance to list a new contract, Flynn said.
The people familiar with the situation, who declined to be named, said Nymex had been contacting potential traders of the contract regarding the new listing. Nymex declined to comment on whether it planned to list the contract.
Og her kommer bekreftelsen. Forbered dere på volatilitet !
NYMEX Partners with UX Consulting to Offer Uranium Futures Contracts
April 16, 2007
New York, NY — The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc., a subsidiary of NYMEX Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:NMX), the world's largest physical commodity exchange, today signed a 10–year agreement with the Ux Consulting Company, LLC (UxC), the global uranium pricing index and information leader, to introduce on and off-exchange traded uranium futures products on the CME Globex® and NYMEX ClearPort® electronic platforms on May 6 for trade date May 7.
NYMEX and UxC will work together to provide marketing and education for these financially settled contracts, which will serve as the pricing benchmark for this rapidly growing industry.
NYMEX Chairman Richard Schaeffer said, "We are excited to introduce uranium futures contracts and to provide the industry with a transparent price discovery mechanism. We expect to create a benchmark contract for this important and underserved global market. NYMEX is gratified to launch innovative products, and uranium is uniquely positioned to act as a complement to both our energy and metals product offerings. We are proud to partner with Ux Consulting, the recognized market leader."
UxC President Jeff Combs said "The experience this decade has clearly indicated that the uranium market would benefit from additional price transparency, especially in terms of forward prices, as market participants formulate budget and investment decisions in this critical period of a renaissance in nuclear power. We are pleased to partner with NYMEX, the global leader in commodities–based futures trading, in the introduction of uranium futures products, and applaud NYMEX for investing the time and resources necessary to make uranium futures a reality."
Price forecasts red hot for uranium
JOHN PARTRIDGE, INVESTMENT REPORTER, Globe and Mail
18 April, 2007
CIBC World Markets Inc. has raised its price forecasts for uranium oxide by 40 per cent, citing an environmentally driven renaissance in nuclear power and a gap between demand and supply for the metal.
The firm's chief economist Jeffrey Rubin said yesterday that he now expects the nuclear fuel, which is currently fetching $113 (U.S.) a pound, to hit $140 this year and $160 in 2008.
The move comes amid developments that could bring a new transparency to "yellowcake" prices, which have already risen 15-fold in the past six years, by allowing speculators as well as industry participants to play the market through futures contracts for the first time.
Until now, prices have been set behind the scenes, mostly in contracts between utilities and uranium suppliers. As well, it is only in the past couple of years that investors have been able to bet on these prices directly, by investing in a handful of funds that have gone out and purchased actual yellowcake.
On Monday, however, the New York Mercantile Exchange revealed plans to launch futures contracts for uranium oxide next month in collaboration with Ux Consulting Co. LLC of Roswell, Ga., the key source of what little public information there is on prices. The contracts will be settled in cash, meaning no one will have to arrange to take delivery of the stuff.
The Nymex-Ux plan came just over two weeks after British energy broker Tullett Prebon (UK) Ltd. said it has set up a nuclear fuel derivatives desk to sell a variety of futures contracts -- also to be based on the yellowcake price and settled in cash -- to utilities, mining companies, banks and investment funds.
Mr. Rubin said there has been a "bellwether change" in North American attitudes toward atomic power. He cited environmentalist opposition that recently forced Texas's largest power utility to scrap plans for 6,000 megawatts of new coal-fired generating capacity in favour of building up to five nuclear power plants.
"It's one thing for California to ban coal-fired capacity, but it's a whole other ballgame when Texas is cancelling 6,000 megawatts of capacity for environmental reasons," he said when reached in Toronto.
As well, 21 new nuclear plants are slated to come into service in China and elsewhere in Asia by 2010, and twice that many more by 2020, he said in a commentary.
[Endret 16.04.07 22:28 av OldNick]
[Endret 19.04.07 19:21 av OldNick]
At present, mine production provides just 66 cent of the approximately 68,000 tonnes of yellowcake civilian reactors around the world require annually, while the balance comes from secondary sources.
However, the report notes that one key secondary source, a program under which Cold War-era atomic warheads are converted to fuel purchased by U.S. power plants, is set to end in 2013, and Russia has already said it will not renew the pact.
Mine production is slated to expand to 59,000 tonnes a year by 2010 from 42,000 last year, with 12,000 tonnes of the increase coming in the final year.
However, Mr. Rubin noted in his report that much of the 2010 leap will depend on the timely completion of the currently flooded Cigar Lake mine in northern Saskatchewan that uranium giant Cameco Corp. of Saskatoon is trying to drain and develop. Any slippage will leave the market "significantly tighter."
There are mixed views on what sort of impact the addition of futures trading will have on prices.
Mr. Rubin said the development "certainly wouldn't cause me to lower my price targets."
However, Kevin Bambrough, market strategist at Sprott Asset Management Inc. of Toronto, which has invested aggressively in the uranium sector, said the futures market may siphon off some of the speculative money that has been pumped into buying physical yellowcake.
"I think adding liquidity is usually a good thing over all, but I don't expect it to have too much of an impact on the global supply-demand picture, which ultimately will dictate where the price is going to head," he said.
Bob Mitchell, who heads Adit Capital LLC of Portland, Ore., and was one of the first fund managers to invest in physical uranium, figures nuclear power plant operators will likely try to use the futures to try to slow the fuel price rise. "But at the end of the day they're going to need uranium to put in their reactors to produce electricity, and paper profits and losses won't do that for them," he said.
Meanwhile, Peter Farmer, chief executive officer of both uranium miner Denison Mines Inc. of Toronto and Uranium Participation Corp., a publicly traded closed-end fund that buys uranium oxide, also played down the potential impact. "It's just a bet on the [yellowcake] price, so it shouldn't have any more effect on the price than the trading value of UPC shares has," he said.
Uranium Miners, Explorers Radiate Optimism Over Northern Deposit Potential
By Bob Weber, ResourceInvestor.com
18 Apr, 2007
IQALUIT, Nunavut (CP) -- Uranium miners and explorers radiated optimism this week at a Nunavut mining symposium where the silvery metal took the spotlight away from Arctic gold and diamonds.
New scientific research presented to delegates suggests areas of Nunavut are tantalizingly similar to parts of Saskatchewan that are sometimes referred to as uranium's Saudi Arabia.
''It just gets more and more interesting,'' said Charlie Jefferson of the Canadian Geological Survey, which is in charge of assessing Canada's uranium reserves for Natural Resources Canada.
Northern Saskatchewan's Athabasca Basin contains by far the globe's purest uranium deposits and is the main reason why Canada is the biggest exporter of the mineral in the world.
Miners have known for decades about further deposits in the Thelon Basin south of Baker Lake in Nunavut. But Jefferson's research is beginning to suggest the Eastern Arctic could be another Athabasca.
''They're amazingly similar in general ways.''
The basins share the same age, geologic history and structure. They contain similar minerals and seem to have been shaped by the same processes.
In Saskatchewan's Athabasca area, an underground sandstone basin was filled with 200 million years worth of crushed granite and shale rubble. That rubble was originally rich in uranium, but it has since separated out and concentrated in underground fault lines.
Jefferson said the same thing seems to have occurred in the Thelon.
''The Thelon has the same evidence. There's no uranium in the sandstone (but) there's uranium-rich rocks around (the basin).
''The uranium's gone somewhere.''
Les mer her
[Endret 19.04.07 20:54 av OldNick]
|I dag tror jeg det er en god kjøpsanledning i Uran.
Selv satser jeg på Efr.
EFR på Amex?
EFR på Amex?
|Efr på børsen i Canada.
|Her presenteres historien om uhellet med Cameco's "Cigar Lake Mine" i Saskatchewan.
Flood at Canada Uranium Mine Tied to Cameco Blasting
By Elliot Blair Smith and Christopher Donville
April 20, 2007
(Bloomberg) - Cameco Corp. announced at 2:11 a.m. on Oct. 23 that its Cigar Lake uranium mine in northwest Canada had flooded after a "rock fall," jeopardizing the world's richest undeveloped source of nuclear fuel.
In the six months since, Cameco has said little about the circumstances behind a disaster that will delay production at its $25.5 billion claim for up to three years.
The accident removed 10 percent of anticipated supply from an already overstretched global uranium market, helping drive the ore to $113 a pound today, double the October price.
Canadian government records and interviews with authorities reveal that blasting by Cameco workers may have triggered the flood at Cigar Lake and that the company couldn't control the water because it didn't fulfill repeated pledges to regulators to install more underground pumps there. Those promises came after a similar accident at another of its Saskatchewan mines three years earlier.
"We didn't have it installed quickly enough," Cameco Chief Executive Officer Jerry Grandey says.
That statement -- made during an interview at the company's Saskatoon, Saskatchewan headquarters -- is the first acknowledgment by Cameco that it might bear some responsibility for a disaster that has jolted the global nuclear fuels market.
"We'll find, I'm sure, that there was a combination of geologic factors and human error," Grandey, 60, says. "It's that type of combination where you learn your lessons."
For investors, the Cigar Lake accident means Cameco won't fully profit from one of uranium's greatest bonanzas since the beginning of the Atomic Age. The company could have sold ore from that mine for prices closer to the current spot market. Most of the uranium Cameco now sells is covered by older contracts with lower prices and terms of up to 10 years.
Cameco said in a March 30 securities filing that it would disclose in the third quarter the results of a company- commissioned investigation. Its press releases, securities filings and conference calls with analysts and reporters haven't gone beyond saying the flood was caused by a "rock fall" of indeterminate origin.
The company's Nov. 10 accident report to its primary regulator, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission in Ottawa, doesn't mention Oct. 11 blasting by its workers as a potential trigger for the leak. That possibility was raised by Cameco's vice president of safety, health and environment, John Jarrell, during a Dec. 13 commission hearing.
"The first sign of instability occurred in a wedge failure which resulted from the Oct. 11 blast sequence," Jarrell said.
Regulators haven't issued an official report and say their investigation is continuing.
In April 2003, blasting contributed to a flood that exceeded Cameco's pumping capacity and almost cost the company its flagship McArthur River mine, 50 kilometers (31 miles) southwest of Cigar Lake, according to a company report filed with the nuclear safety commission.
Another flood at Cigar Lake in April 2006 knocked out a secondary shaft that remains underwater. A company report on the accident that was due in February hasn't been filed with regulators yet.
The setbacks are prompting Canadian regulators to question Cameco's ability to master the daunting geology of northern Saskatchewan's uranium-rich, water-laden Athabasca Basin.
"This is the third flooding event in this Athabasca sandstone for Cameco," says Kevin Scissons, director of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission's uranium mills and mines division in Saskatchewan. "It just requires closer scrutiny, period."
Scissons, who visited the site, said in an interview at his Saskatoon office that blasting by miners is "directly linked" to the latest Cigar Lake flood.
Ernest Becker, director of the Saskatchewan Labour ministry's Radiation and Mines Safety Unit, which also is investigating, agrees that the blasting and flooding are related.
"A blast always shakes up things, but the real issue is the ground control failed," Becker says, referring to work typically done before blasting to stabilize the earth. "I want reassurance that whatever they do for ground control in the future will maintain the integrity of the mine."
The accident also exposes the fragility of uranium's global supply chain. In 2006, worldwide production of uranium oxide, or yellowcake, fell 4.6 percent to 103 million pounds from 108 million the year before, says Jeff Combs, president of Roswell, Georgia-based Ux Consulting Co., which closely tracks uranium production and prices.
The world's 435 existing nuclear reactors require 173 million pounds of the mineral a year, the industry's World Nuclear Association in London says.
That means only 60 percent of the uranium needed by reactors is extracted from the ground. The balance is culled from dismantled weapons in Russia and the utilities' own dwindling inventories, built up during 20 years of oversupply when nuclear power was out of favor.
No new production anywhere near the amount Cameco has under water at Cigar Lake will enter the market for years, mining forecasts show. That could limit the nuclear power industry's plans to develop 168 new nuclear plants worldwide by 2020. Another 198 million pounds of ore is needed to start up those plants, Cameco Vice President Scott Melbye told the association at its September conference in London.
[Endret 21.04.07 15:10 av OldNick]
Cameco said immediately after the Cigar Lake accident that it is "adequately positioned to meet its contractual obligations." It is delaying deliveries from Cigar Lake for five to seven years, as allowed under those contracts.
The issues of ground control and pumping capacity at the mine are being investigated by regulators and the company, and in hearings before the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission.
Nestled in a jack pine forest 660 kilometers north of Saskatoon, Cigar Lake contains about 226 million pounds of ore, the energy equivalent of 1.86 billion tons of coal. That is the world's second-largest deposit of high-grade uranium after the McArthur River mine, which contains an estimated 367 million pounds of uranium and produces 18.7 million pounds a year.
The deposits are considered high-grade because they are far richer in uranium than most such deposits around the world. Radiation levels at these mines also are far more concentrated than in lower-grade deposits, so miners work remotely or in protective clothing and equipment.
The Cigar Lake deposit was discovered in 1981 as the final test hole of a winter exploration. The rugged terrain of woods, lakes and sandstone belies its vulnerability to rock falls and flooding caused by groundwater pressure in earth fractured by glaciers.
Cameco owns 50 percent of the project. Its partners are Areva Resources, a subsidiary of Areva SA in Paris, which owns 37 percent; Idemitsu Uranium Exploration Canada Ltd., a unit of Idemitsu Kosan Co. in Tokyo, which owns 8 percent; and Tepco Resources Inc., a unit of Tokyo Electric Power Co., which owns 5 percent.
The ore lay untapped for two decades as Cameco weighed uranium's then-depressed price against the high cost -- and risk -- of developing new technology to extract it.
By January 2005, when work at Cigar Lake began, Cameco had proven its ability to stabilize the sponge-like rock with a novel ground-freezing technology in use at the McArthur River mine. It also developed high-pressure water jets to carve out the radioactive ore, like a dentist would a cavity, so miners could keep a safe distance.
As recently as April 2006, Cameco said the Cigar Lake mine would be open this year, with uranium production increasing to 18 million pounds a year by 2010. That is enough to meet the annual fuel requirements of 34 nuclear reactors.
The miners blasting at Cigar Lake on Oct. 11 didn't expect a groundwater hazard where they were working, so they didn't take the precaution of freezing the ground there, according to interviews with Cameco officials and executives' testimony before the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission in December.
"We believed we were developing a geologic area at Cigar that was dry and competent," Grandey says in his office. "Well, that turned out to be an erroneous assumption."
The danger at Cigar Lake emerged slowly, 11 days after the blasting. The initial leak in the tunnel's ceiling of 340 cubic meters (89,820 gallons) an hour was within the mine's pumping capacity of 500 cubic meters an hour, the company said in its accident report and in testimony to regulators.
Three hours later, the situation was much worse. Groundwater was gushing into the mine at the rate of almost 1,500 cubic meters an hour -- three times the pumps' capacity -- filling the shaft, the company report states.
Grandey says he was on his way to a Nuclear Energy Institute conference in Quebec City when he learned that the mine was in imminent danger of being lost.
"Your stomach immediately does somersaults," he says.
Grandey canceled his trip and chartered a plane to fly seven executives to the remote site. Fifteen minutes before the charter landed, mine workers radioed the pilot to say they couldn't control the rising water, the company's report says.
The workers asked for permission to stop pouring concrete for an underground plug so they could prepare to close two water-tight doors 480 meters (1,575 feet) below the surface that might contain the flow.
Cigar Lake General Manager Barry Schmitke, who was aboard the plane, told the miners to salvage what they could and prepare to close the doors, according to the report and interviews with company officials.
The miners closed the first of two steel bulkhead doors on Oct. 23 at 1 a.m., according to a transcript of the nuclear commission's December hearing.
Between 5:40 a.m. and 11:09 a.m., miners tried -- and failed -- three times to close the second door as icy water sloshed above their knee-high boots, according to the company report and hearing transcripts.
The second door got stuck in the mud and failed to seal when a gasket fell off, the report says. The insurmountable gap was one-eighth of an inch (3.2 millimeters).
The surging water brought rising radiation, requiring Cameco to alert federal and provincial regulators three times. Workers wore respirators and there were no injuries, the accident report says.
Just before 11:30 a.m., Schmitke ordered the shaft evacuated. Workers climbed a ladder out of rapidly flowing water -- Schmitke put its temperature at 7 degrees Celsius (45 degrees Fahrenheit) -- into a cage with guide ropes that hovered just above the floor.
"The final evacuation could be described as intense and stressful, as the shaft station did have water accumulation and the groundwater was cold," Jarrell told the commission.
Regulators' concerns about the accident have a precedent in the company's own findings that blasting and inadequate pumping capacity contributed to the April 2003 flood at the McArthur River mine.
The Saskatchewan Labour ministry's investigation of that flood, completed two months later, attributed the inundation to workers blasting without adequate ``ground support'' -- that is, earth-stabilizing
.... materials such as bolts, steel reinforcing rods and a form of sprayed concrete known as shotcreting.
An analysis for Cameco by Knoxville, Tennessee, consulting firm System Improvements Inc. also concluded: "If effective ground support had been in place on April 6, 2003, the ground would not have failed and the water inflow could not have occurred," according to a copy filed with federal regulators.
The consultants' report also said the chief geologist at McArthur River had warned as early as January 2001 about the company's "lack of readiness to fight serious water inflow." The mine superintendent and contract workers continued expressing warnings and misgivings to superiors about water hazards almost up to the time of the accident, the report says.
Cameco shut down production at McArthur River for three months after that accident. It then told the federal nuclear commission several times that it had reviewed its mine-safety procedures and would increase pumping capacity at the McArthur River and Cigar Lake mines, Nuclear Safety Commission records show.
Schmitke pledged to the commission in June 2003 and June 2004 that the pumping capacity at Cigar Lake would be increased to 1,500 cubic meters, according to hearing transcripts. That capacity would have been equal to the peak inflow during the October accident.
"We have essentially tripled the underground pumping capacity that was originally planned for Cigar Lake," Cameco Senior Vice President Terry Rogers told the same regulators in July 2004.
Scissons told the commission last December that Cameco had started adding water-pumping capacity at Cigar Lake just before the accident. Regulators had asked the company to begin the work after the April 2006 flood there, he said.
"They made a decision they would put it in after their major development work was done and before they went into operation," Scissons says now. "That was the choice they made and they were very clear."
Grandey confirms this. He won't discuss whether the company's judgment may have been faulty.
"It was all about where should I put my development priorities when you're trying to develop an underground mine," Grandey says in his office. "You can't snap your fingers and do it all at once."
Cameco disclosed April 9 in a Canadian securities filing that Grandey won't receive a bonus for 2006 because of the two accidents at Cigar Lake. He was paid a C$600,000 ($528,961) bonus in 2005.
The October flood at Cigar Lake and declining production in Australia -- the world's second-largest producer after Canada -- were just two of the factors pushing uranium prices higher. The market price was rising even before the flood as hedge funds speculated on the market and U.S. utilities tried to restock their dwindling supplies.
On Oct. 16, the week before the accident, uranium sold for $56 a pound. By Oct. 30, the week after the accident, the price had risen 7 percent to $60 a pound, according to Ux Consulting. In December, it was $72.
Uranium doesn't trade on a commodities exchange. Its prices are based on private contracts and occasional public auctions.
Cameco's potential profits will be hurt by a long-term contracting strategy predating the recent price surge. Last year, the company sold its ore for an average $20.62 a pound, compared with the $49.60 average spot price, Cameco says.
That price difference amounts to $605.7 million in unrealized revenues for Cameco, based on the 20.9 million pounds it sold last year.
"They were continually proven wrong as the price of uranium went higher and higher," says Kevin Bambrough, market strategist at Sprott Asset Management Inc. in Toronto. "They underestimated the full extent of where things are going, and they didn't anticipate the problems at Cigar Lake."
Still, company shares have bounced back higher than before the accident, rising 39 percent to an all-time high of C$54.06 ($47.34) on April 9, before easing back to C$52.63 a share.
Cameco's largest shareholder, Wellington Management Co. of Boston, with a 14 percent stake, declined to comment.
Lower Production Goal
Stephen Jarislowsky, head of Montreal-based Jarislowsky Fraser Ltd., which owns 2.1 percent -- worth C$395.9 million -- after disclosing in March that it sold 434,000 shares, says, "Cameco is a very fine company but I think it's getting too high. It's been overheated for a long time."
In a March 19 conference call with securities analysts and reporters, Cameco said it won't be able to launch production at Cigar Lake until at least 2010. In an accompanying press release, it lowered its first-year production goal to 3 million pounds from the 7 million pounds it forecast previously.
Cameco also disclosed that it probably won't be able to plug the underground leak until late in the third quarter. It said the estimated cost to complete the mine is now C$1 billion, more than twice the C$450 million it forecast in December 2004.
Without elaborating, the company also said it plans to increase the mine's pumping capacity to 2,300 cubic meters an hour, up from its pre-flood capacity of about 500 cubic meters an hour.
Money manager Robert Mitchell of Lake Oswego, Oregon-based Adit Capital Management LLC, which formerly owned Cameco shares, says he isn't convinced the company can deliver on its promises.
"By no means have the regulatory and remediation hurdles been jumped," he says.
During the regulators' December hearing, nuclear commission member Christopher Barnes, a geologist, admonished Cameco officials for the Cigar Lake accident.
[Endret 21.04.07 15:12 av OldNick]
"My concern is that you're developing a mine here without adequate geologic, geotechnical, hydrogeologic knowledge; and when events like this one -- or the one at McArthur River -- take place, they put workers in considerable jeopardy," he said.
Barnes also criticized company officials three years earlier during a hearing on the McArthur River accident.
"When you put the pieces together, they build a story of really fundamental issues about the competence of the company," he said in April 2003.
Barnes declined to comment for this story.
Grandey disagrees with the criticism, saying "management's about taking risks -- calculated risks."
"We thought we were on the safe side of that calculation," he says. "And we were wrong."
Uranium's set to make waves in futures
New York Mercantile Exchange, Ux Consulting to launch uranium futures
By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
Apr 27, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- It's hard to ignore any commodity that's seen a more than 1,000% price climb over the course of five years, especially one that's about to be traded on a futures exchange for its first time ever.
Weekly spot prices for uranium stood at $113 a pound on April 23 -- that's an 11-fold increase from the $5 price it cost in 2002, according to data from Ux Consulting Co., LLC. See the Web site for the latest price.
It's no wonder that the uranium industry and potential investors are all abuzz following an agreement between Ux Consulting and the New York Mercantile Exchange, a unit of Nymex Holdings (NMX:NYSE), announced last week to introduce on- and off-exchange traded uranium futures products on May 6.
"The fact is, there's a need for a uranium futures market," said Sean Brodrick, a contributing editor to MoneyandMarkets.com, who has often written about the uranium rally. Read his related Internet blogs.
"The way things are now, most uranium is sold under long-term contract and some is sold under short-term contract," he said. "But liquidity can just dry up [and] it's hard for utilities to make plans if they don't know what the real price of uranium is."
"It's about giving transparency to a very illiquid market," said Kevin Bambrough, a market strategist at Sprott Asset Management.
'Since we are moving off the age of oil and into a nuclear era, it's about time we had some liquidity in the uranium market and some visibility into pricing in outer months.'
— Kevin Bambrough, Sprott Asset Management
Les mer her
[Endret 27.04.07 17:56 av OldNick]
|Labor will change on uranium: Evans
April 23, 2007
FEDERAL Labor resources spokesman Chris Evans says he expects Labor will overturn its 25-year opposition to new Australian uranium mines.
Mr Evans says he will support Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd's plan to dump the ALP's uranium policy at the party's national conference which starts on Friday in Sydney.
“The current Labor Party policy has failed,” Mr Evans told reporters in Perth today. “During the life of the policy uranium mining has trebled, three new mines have opened and we are about to become the largest uranium miner in the world.
“I think there is a mood for a change in the Labor Party ... we have been debating it for 30 years ... the policy hasn't worked.”
The party might be divided on uranium policy but it was united in support for strengthening international nuclear safeguards, he said.
“We are very worried about (Prime Minister John) Howard's plans to sell uranium to India, outside the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, but my expectation is that the conference will change the policy. I have been wrong before but am hopeful that we will change the policy.”
Labor's environment spokesman Peter Garrett says he is not sure how many of his colleagues will reject changes to Labor's uranium policy, but he says he will stand firm.
Mr Garrett, a one-time Senate candidate for the Nuclear Disarmament Party, said Mr Rudd will have a fight on his hands.
“I have always said that we are into nuclear as far as we ought to be, I won't be supporting any proposals to expand uranium mining in Australia and we'll have a discussion at the conference when these amendments come forward,” the environment spokesman told ABC Radio today.
But Mr Garrett said he was not sure how many other Labor Party members would be voting against the shift in policy.
“I'm not counting numbers, all I'm saying is what I've always said and that is that we are into nuclear as far as I think we ought to be,” he said.
“This has always been my position - it was my position before I came into the Labor Party, it's my position in the Labor Party and we'll have that debate at the conference.”
Mr Garrett said he was one of thousands who campaigned vigorously against uranium mining in the 1980s and he was not going to stand down from his position.
[Endret 25.05.07 08:44 av Grey]
Så et uraniumselskap på vinnerlisten idag.
Og så vil statsminister Howard følge labor, og avslutte det 25-årige forbud mot å starte nye U-gruver i Australia til neste år.
Nuclear strategy for Australia unveiled
By staff writers, news.com.au
April 28, 2007
PRIME Minister John Howard today revealed his strategy to increase uranium mining and prepare Australia for nuclear power.
Mr Howard promised to remove restrictions on mining and processing uranium, to increase uranium exports and to overturn laws prohibiting nuclear activity.
New nuclear power regulations would be made to govern future potential nuclear energy facilities in Australia and an information campaign would explain to the nation what needs to be done and why, he said.
The Government also plans to equip workers with technical skills necessary for a nuclear energy industry and embark on enhanced research and development of nuclear reactors.
"I am announcing today a new strategy for the future development of uranium mining and nuclear power in Australia," Mr Howard said.
"In light of the significance of global climate, change and as the world's largest holder of uranium reserves, Australia has a clear responsibility to develop its uranium resources in a sustainable way," he said.
Relevant ministers and their departments are planned to start work on the strategy immediately and report to Cabinet late this year. Mr Howard said work plans were to be implemented in 2008.
"The Government's next step will be to repeal commonwealth legislation prohibiting nuclear activities, including the relevant provisions of the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999. This will be addressed soon," he said.
"Policies or political platforms that seek to constrain the development of a safe and reliable Australian uranium industry – and which rule out the possibility of climate-friendly nuclear energy – are not really serious about addressing climate change."
Mr Howard said Australia had 36 per cent of the world's low cost uranium reserves.
Og Australia arbeiderparti vil avvikle denne forbudspolitikken...
ALP overturns 'no new mines' policy
April 28, 2007
LABOR leader Kevin Rudd has formally moved amendments to Labor's uranium platform which would overturn its 25-year-old no new mines policy.
The amendments would remove the ban on any new mines and allow uranium to be exported only to countries which have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The amendments, seconded by South Australian Premier Mike Rann, would also limit the processing of weapon-usable material and tighten controls over the export of nuclear material and technology.
Mr Rudd said he recognised that states and territories would take their own decisions on whether to approve new mines and Federal Labor did not support a nuclear power system for Australia, he said.
Mr Rudd's amendment was not universally supported.
NSW delegate Jenny McAllister, a member of the Labor environment activist network, said uranium mining was inextricably linked to the nuclear industry.
"Uranium mining is at the heart of the nuclear industry and you cannot support one without supporting the other. These questions must be considered together," she said.
"Any proposal to expand uranium mining deepens our engagement with the nuclear industry."
Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese moved his own amendments to maintain the ban, saying nuclear power was not the solution to climate change.
He appealed to any undecided delegates to vote with him.
"If you're cautious about further involvement in the nuclear fuel cycle, vote for my amendment," Mr Albanese said.
"If you think that it's pretty arrogant to suggest that we know what will happen to geology, climate, and importantly, political changes over the next 240,000 years, think there might be a doubt about it – vote for my amendment.
"Let's put out a consistently clear position that says we don't want any further involvement in the nuclear fuel cycle."
Mr Albanese's amendment was seconded by Labor's environment spokesman Peter Garrett.
Så, er det noen som har en god oversikt over U-selskap som har aktiviteter i Australia, som handles i USA, Canada, Australia, UK, ... ?
De 3 gruvene som er i drift idag er:
"Ranger", Northern Territories, eies av Energy Resources of Australia (ERA), som igjen er 68% eid av Rio Tinto, 31.6% public (ASX), prod. ca. 5.000 t/år U3O8
"Olympic Dam", South Australia, eies 100% av BHP, prod. ca. 4.300 t/år U3O8
"Beverly", South Australia, eid 100% av Heathgate Resources (som igjen er et datterselskap av General Atomics, som igjen er heleid av General Dynamics, et stort selskap innen forsvarsindustrien i USA. Prod. ca. ca. 1.000 t/år U3O8.
Ref: Australia's Uranium Mines]
Active Spot Uranium Demand Dropped by 65 Percent in April
Uranium Price Momentum Deflated Ahead of NYMEX Futures Trading
May 2, 2007
Julie Ickes, http://www.stockinterview.com
[Endret 28.04.07 15:23 av OldNick]
[Endret 28.04.07 15:27 av OldNick]
[Endret 28.04.07 15:28 av OldNick]
[Endret 28.04.07 15:45 av OldNick]
[Endret 28.04.07 15:45 av OldNick]
[Endret 03.05.07 00:45 av OldNick]
|Endelig lykkes det for Paladin:
Paladin reaches Summit
May 01, 2007
PALADIN Resources has acquired 58.2 per cent of the shares in Summit Resources, taking management control of the Australian uranium explorer.
The $1.14 billion offer by Perth-based Paladin, operator of a uranium mine in Namibia, had been recommended by Summit and extended by two weeks to May 11, Paladin said yesterday.
Paladin failed to take full control of Summit after Areva, the world's largest maker of nuclear power stations, bought a 10.46 per cent stake last week.
Paladin and Summit are partners in the Valhalla uranium deposit in Mount Isa, Queensland, which may be developed after the Labor Party ended its 25-year-old ban on new mines on April 28.
Uranium prices have more than doubled in the past year, spurred by output losses at existing mines, delays to new projects, and rising demand from utilities for power generation.
Areva's stake is enough to block Paladin proceeding with a compulsory acquisition of Summit, were it to win the support of the rest of the company's shareholders.
Earlier, Paris-based Areva had agreed with Summit to take a stake of up to 18 per cent, though the arrangement was ended when Paladin increased its offer for the Perth-based company.
Philippe Portella, managing director of Areva's Australian unit, said in an interview on April 26 that Areva had no intention of launching a takeover bid for Summit and was still interested in pursuing a strategic alliance with Summit.
Summit shares rose as much as 21c, or 3.7 per cent, yesterday to $5.92 but closed down 2c at $5.73. Paladin gained as much as 27c, or 2.8 per cent, to $9.92 but fell 5c to a $9.74 close.
Paladin is offering one of its shares for every 1.67 Summit shares held.
[Endret 28.05.07 09:43 av Grey]
Det er flere selskaper i Australia som har Uranrike forekomster i sine portefoeljer, som Arafura Resources (ARU), Bannerman Resources (BMN), Energy Resources of Australia (ERA), Korab Resources (KOR), Paladin Resources (PDN), Uranium Exploration Australia (UXA). Forekomstene er for det meste i Northern Territory, Western Australia og ogsaa i Quensland. Hvis naa baade sittende regjering med Howard i spissen og den som ser ut til aa kunne ta over etter hoestens valg (utifra meningsmaalinger), Labour med Kevin Rudd, vil lempe paa muligheten til aa utvinne Uran saa vil disse selskapene vaere klare. Men det er fortsatt stor motstand i Australia mot aa starte opp flere uran gruver, og flere miljoebevegelser vil nok bli synlige paa barikadene utover vinteren (sommeren). Andre utfordringer som selskapene har er aa bli enig med urbefolkningen om kompensasjon for utvinning, dette gjelder spesiellt for omraadene i NT. Etter kraftig oppgang igaar pga meldingen fra Howard og Rudd saa gaar de fleste mineral aksjene ner idag paa ASX. Ha en hyggelig 1.mai.
[Endret 01.05.07 08:50 av Grey]
|Ref innlegg over ang utfordringer/hindringer som gruveindustrien moeter i NT saa er vel dette ett godt eksempel:
Court rules against Xstrata mine upgrade
May 01, 2007
A MAJOR project by Swiss mining giant Xstrata is in doubt after Aboriginal landowners in the Northern Territory won a court challenge against the approval process for the McArthur River Mine.
In a surprise decision in Darwin yesterday, Northern Territory Supreme Court justice David Angel ruled that the Territory Government had acted improperly when it gave the green light to the expansion of a lead and zinc mine in the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Xstrata had applied to divert the McArthur River for 5km near Borroloola, 700km southeast of Darwin, in a $110 million conversion from underground to open-cut mine.
But the controversial development, designed to extend the life of the mine by up to 35 years, could now be put on hold after the Supreme Court yesterday ruled in favour of traditional owners.
The company has repeatedly warned that the mine would be closed if its expansion application was rejected.
Northern Land Council chief executive Norman Fry said the decision was a victory for common sense and accused Xstrata of being motivated "solely by self-interest and greed".
"The impact of this project demanded that an open and transparent process be adopted," Mr Fry said.
"Unfortunately for the NT Government, this back-door approach in approving the project has brought nothing but shame on them."
In August last year, NT Environment Minister Marion Scrymgour gave her backing for the expansion just six months after rejecting the proposal on environmental grounds.
The mine, which divided the Martin Labor Government, was finally approved by Mines Minister Chris Natt in October after the Government approved a revised environmental plan and imposed a $55 million security bond.
But green groups and some Aboriginal owners remained opposed to the development, which was also cleared by the Federal Government.
Justice Angel said the Territory Government's approval of the expansion was invalid because it did not follow the proper process. "The Minister for Mines and Energy's acceptance of the amended Mining Management Plan was of no effect because the Mining Management Plan was not in respect of the mining activities," he said.
The Government said it would carefully review the decision and "examine all available legal avenues" before commenting further.
In a statement, McArthur River Mines said it was disappointed in the decision and would consider the judgment over the coming days.
NT Environment Centre campaigner Charles Roche said the judgment "saved a tropical river".
[Endret 28.05.07 09:44 av Grey]
Uran selskaper som opererer i Australia. Listen over inkluderer kun selskaper paa ASX. Paa TSX saa foleger jeg med paa Laramide Resources (LAM) og Mega Uranium (MGA) som nylig har kjoept opp Nu Energy Uranium Corp.
[Endret 02.05.07 08:23 av Grey]
[Endret 02.05.07 08:23 av Grey]
|Litt info om noen australske selskaper med uranium i portefoeljen:
Uranium glow warms Namibian campfire yarn
May 02, 2007
THERE is a fantastic campfire story which will make great listening years down the track, if it is not being told already.
Back in early 2005, when the uranium price was showing its first signs of an uptick, Perth mining entrepreneurs Clive Jones and Nathan McMahon took a gamble to peg some ground in Namibia.
Showing their nous, the pair applied for a swag of tenements in the country, knowing full-well the country had a good track record of uranium production.
Not only is Paladin reaping the rewards for advancing its Langer-Heinrich project there, but also Rio Tinto had shown the rest of the pack what to do with its giant Rossing project in Namibia.
Rossing, which has been in operation for more than 30 years, produces about 8 per cent of the world's uranium supply through an acid leach operation.
Now the story goes that Jones and McMahon managed to convince the Namibian authorities that they were dinkum about uranium exploration, but could not get all the tenements they were after.
You will have to ask the pair just how much ground they actually applied for, but in the end they were able to pick up ground with an awesome address - adjacent to both Rossing and Langer Heinrich.
Yesterday Bannerman, an aspiring uranium producer which includes Jones as a board member, announced an inferred resource of 27 million pounds, or 12,300 tonnes for its Goanikontes project.
That figure, which serves as a precedent for a scoping study which that begins Monday, is only a tiny portion of what Bannerman should get from Goanikontes given that it's based on drilling at an average depth of 80 metres and the fact that there are numerous other targets around.
There are about another seven targets Bannerman has its eye on, including massive mounds of D and E type Alaskites which are yet to touched.
Interestingly, the cutoff grade used is 100 parts per million U3O8, a cutoff used at Rio's Rossing project but still considered small by world standards.
Bannerman can get away with that however because of the rampant run on the uranium price, meaning even lower grade deposits are economic.
"Mineralisation hs been shown to extend at least 1.7 kilometres and to depths in-excess of 300 metres," Bannerman said.
Anyway, Bannerman hasn't had much to do with spruiking the story since the ground was picked up, preferring instead to let the market react to the company based on its current love affair with all things uranium.
If you listen to the market watchers, no one in Australia has a full grip on the enormity of the asset and is undervaluing Bannerman shares.
It is understood that some of the Bannerman board will soon head to Canada to investigate a possible listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange which would see greater liquidity to the stock.
Well placed sources say the Canadians are itching to get a hold of Bannerman stock and view the current price as cheap.
The stock is currently covered by both Fat Prophets and DJ Carmichaels.
A project cap-ex could come in somewhere around the $US150 million figure and it is believed that Bannerman want to push ahead into production to bet the expected rush in five years time.
That would mean skipping the pre-feasibility stage and jumping straight to Bankable Feasibility Study status, something which Bannerman will probably have to raise a few bucks for.
Bannerman wants to be in production by 2010 in what would be one of the fastest turnarounds from explorer to uranium producer for an Australian company.
There are a swag of options yet to be converted, some of which are exercisable by the end of the month at 6.67 cents each.
Given that the Bannerman share price is up around $3, those option holders will be laughing all the way to the bank.
DAILY Assay was right on the money yesterday when it said Pluton Resources was close to finishing its negotiations with the native title claimants at its Irvine Island project in the West Australian Kimberleys.
Pluton can now go ahead and conduct a flora and fauna survey of the ground and negotiate for a heritage protection agreement for the grant of an exploration licence.
And, as was said yesterday, given the good grading on the island - upwards of 68 per cent iron - there's got to be more than just a few cashed-up entities awaiting on the outcome of that.
[Endret 25.05.07 08:47 av Grey]
|Resourcex Dispatches: Uranium Stocks Rally Ahead Of NYMEX Futures Trading
Friday, May 4, 2007
By Robert Simpson, U3O8.biz
Click here for StockHouse Conflicts and Disclosure Policy
Page 1 of 2
Prices could hit $500 a pound in the blink of an eye
Uranium company stocks rallied this week in advance of the off exchange uranium futures trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) slated to begin next week.
The NYMEX will list a uranium futures contract on Monday, May 7, as the energy and metals exchange looks to capitalize on surging interest in the nuclear fuel.
Whether the launch of futures contracts will be an advantage or disadvantage to the uranium market depend on who you ask.
The futures contract provides nuclear power plants with a vehicle to hedge against rising prices, which have surged more than tenfold in the past four years as commercial stockpiles dwindle and more plants are built. It would also provide a forum to bet directly on gains and falls in the price of uranium, rather than speculating on the fortunes of miners
The new NYMEX futures market will involve financially settled contracts that are separate from the physical uranium market. This separation between the financial and physical markets has led to skepticism among those with experience in the uranium market.
"They don't see how such a market could take hold, given the lack of the basic elements for such a market to evolve -- a liquid spot market and the absence of a linkage to the physical market for the commodity," TradeTech CEO Gene Clark explained in an interview with Dow Jones MarketWatch.
Linkage to the physical market is "nearly universally the case in other futures markets," he added. And, "with the NYMEX futures market being purely a financial instrument, it runs the danger of diverging significantly from the physical market."
"Futures trading is where speculators are going to get involved in uranium with both hands. Uranium futures could put us at $500 per pound in the blink of an eye, because they'll give hedge funds a way to trade in and out of uranium easily," says Sean Brodrick, editor of Red Hot Resources.
He cautions spot prices are unlikely to increase overnight.
"Traders and speculators won't trust uranium futures at first. They'll be as illiquid as granite. But after six months ... a year ... however long it takes ... once they get going, we could see some altitude very quickly. Because once you give hedge funds a way to trade in and out of uranium easily, then it's time to strap on your safety belts, because we could see the wildest ride of our lifetimes."
For those investing in uranium producers, there is nothing more we'd like to see than the prices to continue to trend higher or 'spike' higher," says Kevin Bambrough, a market strategist at Sprott Asset Management.
Brambrough predicts the futures contracts will be a good thing overall and will allow for a more stable and liquid market for producers and consumers to better manage their businesses and hedge risks, as well as allow the participation of a wider spectrum of investors"
According to Investor Daily, "These futures will change the whole game by providing a way for miners, enrichers, and users to hedge their bets."
"At first, the futures could cause some "uranium pure-play stocks" to dip slightly as Wall Street realizes there's a new kid on the block. One such 'pure play' is the Uranium Participation Corporation (TSX: T.U, BullBoards), a holding company for actual uranium managed by Denison Mines (TSX: T.DML, BullBoards).
Shares of the Uranium Participation Corporation dropped from more than $18 to the current $16 on the news of the upcoming NYMEX futures. And, when the futures start trading next week, there could still be a little more downside left."
Historically, the introduction of a new contract has usually meant an intermediate high in prices. But since this is non-directional, it won't affect me. If you're long uranium or uranium stocks, though, we could be in for a rough patch as this is a reliable contrarian indicator," says the Trader.
"The other dark cloud on the horizon is that according to inflation-adjusted prices, we are almost at the previous high (~$115/lb) last seen in the late 1970's. After a parabolic move up within a few short years, I won't blame anyone for being nervous to see prices at previous resistance levels."
What almost everyone agrees on is pricing transparency is long overdue.
"It's about giving transparency to a very illiquid market," said Kevin Bambrough, a market strategist at Sprott Asset Management.
Until now, determining the spot price was shrouded in secrecy. It is evaluated independently by two companies, TradeTech and UxC, reputedly on the basis of their insider knowledge of pending deals and existing bids and offers that are being considered (a process, apparently, taking at least a week). Both companies evaluate the price weekly, but then send it only to their subscribers, publishing only the new values on their Web sites three days later.
|All-Time Record Uranium Spot Price: US$120/Pound
Buyers Fail to Attract Sellers despite Firm Bids
150 dollar/pund januar 2008
[Endret 07.05.07 17:21 av bjørneklo]
|Paladin extends offer for Summit Resources
May 08, 2007
URANIUM miner Paladin Resources has extended its $1.16 billion offer for Summit Resources after securing more than two-thirds of the uranium explorer.
Paladin, which has secured 65 per cent of Summit, has extended the bid by one week to May 18.
However, French nuclear giant Areva NC has thrown a spanner into the works by acquiring a 10.46 per cent stake in Summit, a move that blocks the compulsory acquisition of the uranium explorer by Paladin.
Areva has appealed to the Takeovers Panel to force Summit to present to shareholders a strategic alliance proposal between the two parties.
Summit and Areva had entered into an agreement to form a strategic alliance before the deal was scrapped by Summit in favour of a takeover by Paladin.
Areva is seeking final orders that require Summit to convene a meeting to consider the alliance and require Paladin to vote in favour of the alliance in accordance with its previously stated intention.
Paladin managing director John Borshoff was unavailable for comment.
If Paladin's bid is successful, the uranium miner will secure full ownership of the large Valhalla/Skal deposit in north-west Queensland, which is held in joint venture with Summit.
Paladin operates the Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, and the company plans to bring its second mine in Malawi on line by 2009.
Paladin shares closed down 9c at $9.55 Tuesday, while Summit shares closed down 13c at $5.59.
[Endret 28.05.07 09:42 av Grey]
|Denison and EMC Subject of Takeover Rumours
By Todd Flagg and Jon A. Nones, ResourceInvestor.com
10 May, 2007
St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Issues of supply and demand have brought the spot price of uranium to $120/lb. Rumours of corporate mergers and acquisitions in the uranium sector are beginning to circulate as companies look to buy up additional resources.
On Wednesday, shares of Denison [TSX:DML, AMEX:DNN] and Energy Metals Corp. [TSX:EMC, NYSE:EMU], both jumped 5% following rumours that the uranium miners were being pursued by Cameco [TSX:CCO, NYSE:CCJ] and France-based Areva.
According to Cheryl Brandon, a research analyst with Leeward Hedge Funds, both Areva and Cameco - along with other major uranium producers - are looking to expand their global position in the uranium market.
Denison has ongoing uranium projects in the U.S., Canada, Australia and Mongolia. As an intermediate uranium producer with five active uranium mining projects in North America, Denison expects estimated production of 5 million pounds of uranium by 2010.
Energy Metals Corporation (EMC) has extensive advanced property holdings in Wyoming, Texas and New Mexico that are amenable to ISR (in-situ recovery). EMC is also actively advancing other significant uranium properties in the States of Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Oregon and Arizona.
Denison has 189,107,823 shares outstanding with a $2.77 billion market cap at today’s price of $14.32. EMC has with 81,184,214 shares outstanding with a $1.14 billion market cap at today’s price of $13.40.
At a modest 15% premium to today’s closing prices, the bidder(s) would have to make an offer of about $16.50 per share for Denison and $15.40 per share for EMC, $3.12 billion and $1.25 billion, respectively.
According to Brandon, in 2007 the next major mergers and acquisitions wave will be focused within the uranium sector. Thus far, uranium companies have not been subject to the frenetic pace of M&A in the gold and base metals sectors.
In February, SXR Uranium One [TSX:SXR] launched a bid worth $3.1 billion in stock for UrAsia Energy. Later that month, Paladin Resources Ltd [TSX:PDN], offered about C$950 million for Australian miner Summit Resources Ltd.
In December 2006, Denison purchased International Uranium for C$1 billion and made a failed attempt for Australia’s OmegaCorp [ASX:OMC], acquire just a third of the company. On April 13 2007, when Denison’s bid expired, Central African Mining and Exploration Co., [LSE:CFM] bid $222 million in shares for OmegaCorp.
Thus far, the world’s largest uranium companies have stayed on the sidelines. But Cameco and Areva are not the only companies looking for consolidation within the uranium sector. CVRD [NYSE:RIO], BHP Billiton [NYSE:BHP] and Teck Cominco [NYSE:TCK; TSX:TCK-B] are all possible players for future mergers and acquisitions.
Brandon said that with an estimated 300 uranium miners or explorers on the market, several of the largest companies are looking to buyout prominent juniors. Companies isolated in one country on continent are looking to expand projects to North America and Africa.
Brandon said uranium companies as Paladin Resources Ltd. [TSX:PDN], SXR Uranium One and Cameco are in the best position to expand their global position.
Les mer her
Vil Sør-Afrika nasjonalisere U-ressursene sine ?
South Africa Must Secure Uranium Supply
By Linda Ensor, ResourceInvestor.com
9 May, 2007
CAPE TOWN (Business Day) -- South Africa needed to ensure that its abundant uranium resources were not exploited for the benefit of the nuclear development strategies of other countries, minerals and energy director-general Sandile Nogxina said in Parliament yesterday.
The draft nuclear strategy drawn up by the minerals and energy department, and already submitted to the cabinet, was partly designed to guarantee the security of uranium supply, Nogxina said. The proposed programme of uranium beneficiation was a response to this need.
Once approved by the cabinet, the strategy document would be released for comment.
The need to secure uranium supplies would become critical as South Africa embarked on an accelerated nuclear development programme to meet its energy needs and reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.
Globally, uranium demand has escalated in tandem with renewed international interest in nuclear energy, a trend reflected in its robust price.
Nogxina said in a presentation to Parliament's minerals and energy portfolio committee that "South Africa runs a risk if it keeps on giving our uranium rights out to allow other countries to stock it to our disadvantage".
He said in an interview that there were ways to secure uranium supply for South Africa's nuclear plants. These could be through state-owned mining companies, joint ventures or lease agreements with conditions, or by imposing local supply percentages on the uranium production of private sector firms.
South Africa has only one uranium producer - AngloGold Ashanti [NYSE:AU] - though Uranium One [TSX:SXR]has commenced work on its Dominion uranium mine, while Simmer & Jack plans to exploit uranium in its slimes dams.
Nogxina said, however, that "the development of a comprehensive nuclear energy industrial complex is inevitable, given the envisaged scale of the nuclear programme".
Nuclear energy represented about 4% of South Africa's energy generation and was set to reach about 7% by 2017, the department's chief director of nuclear energy, Tseliso Maqubela, said in an interview. The government had already indicated it would build a new base load nuclear plant by 2017, and other units were also possible, he said.
[Endret 12.05.07 09:21 av OldNick]
The government was also financing the development of the pebble-bed modular reactor (PBMR), with a view to installing about 24 units with a total capacity of 4800MW by about 2025. However, the date for the PBMR to come on stream would depend on when the demonstration model became available, which was projected for about 2012-13, Maqubela said.
The government did not consider it advisable to rest its entire nuclear strategy on the PBMR, Nogxina said.
"It would be foolhardy to rely on unproven technology in a situation of crisis where the economy has created a situation where demand exceeds supply," Nogxina said. "This emergency situation has to be addressed in a way that does not rely on unproven technology."
Nogxina told the committee that legislation on radioactive waste management would be finalised this year.
Legislation mandating the use of healthy, safe, energy- efficient and environmentally friendly energy appliances was also in the pipeline. This law would create entities to promote energy efficiency, renewable energies, energy planning and environmental protection.
|Maximus aims for uranium resource
May 14, 2007 - 4:24PM
Junior explorer Maximus Resources Ltd is aiming to delineate a resource for its Windimurra uranium project in Western Australia after being granted an exploration license by the government.
Maximus said it would conduct a drilling program at the Windimurra project in a bid to firm up an inferred resource by the end of the year.
The Windimurra uranium project was last drilled by WMC Resources in the early 1970s.
Maximus is exploring for uranium, gold and base metals in Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory.
[Endret 22.05.07 05:20 av Grey]
|Uranium Exploration Australia Limited (ASX:UXA) is pleased to announce it has commenced its 2007 field activities on its exploration licences (ELs) on the highly-prospective Stuart Shelf in the Gawler Craton in South Australia.
Following completion of native title clearance surveys, approval was granted for ground-based geophysical surveys as well as for drilling on two areas of interest on UXA's EL 3431 (Griffen Well).
EL 3431 is located 55 kilometres south of the Prominent Hill mine development and 95 kilometres west of BHPB's world-class Olympic Dam Mine, and is one of eight UXA ELs within the "mineralised corridor" that hosts Olympic Dam, Prominent Hill, and Carrapateena.
Gravity surveys are underway and are expected to be completed within two weeks. Data from these surveys will be used to identify specific drilling targets focusing on basement related iron oxide-copper-gold-uranium (IOCGU), Olympic Dam style mineralisation.
An initial drilling contract is in place for a minimum 3,000 metres, and drilling is scheduled to begin in early June.
Gravity surveys will continue on other UXA tenements in South Australia following the completion of surveys on the Griffen Well EL.
UXA's Managing Director Mr Patrick Mutz said, "The Company is pursuing an aggressive exploration program that incorporates a total of 20,000 metres budgeted drilling through June 2008, across all of UXA's current exploration licences in South Australia, Western Australia, Northern Territory, and New South Wales."
UXA currently owns 22 exploration licences and applications covering approximately 9,800 square kilometres in proven mining regions throughout Australia.
Uranium Exploration Australia Limited (UXA) has been established to explore for, locate and develop commercial grade uranium mineralisation and associated copper and gold. The initial focus is on exploration in key target areas in Australia.
UXA has 9 granted exploration licence areas (EL's) and a further 8 under exploration licence application (ELAs). UXA has 100% interest in all applications. Of these applications,
Seven ELs have been granted in South Australia and a futher one is under Exploration Licence Application.
All eight South Australian tenements are proximate to the world's largest known uranium deposit at Olympic Dam.
Three of the eight South Australian tenements are close to the recent gold/copper discoveries at Prominent Hill and Carrapateena
Two ELAs contain previously drilled uranium mineralisation
Six ELAs are in the Northern Territory.
[Endret 22.05.07 05:20 av Grey]
|Talisman, Proto in new uranium venture
May 15, 2007 - 4:49PM
Gold and base metal explorer Talisman Mining Ltd has teamed up with Proto Resources and Investments Ltd to create a new uranium joint venture.
The two companies plan to sell their combined uranium exploration assets in Western Australia and the Northern Territory into a new vehicle called Protal Metals Group Ltd.
Protal plans to raise $4 million through the sale of shares and list on the Australian stock exchange towards the end of the year.
Protal will pick up Talisman's Copper Hills project, which is situated near Rio Tinto Ltd's Kintyre uranium deposit in WA and Proto Resources' Arunta project in the NT and Mount Vetters project in WA.
"Whilst the new company will have a primary focus on exploration and development of uranium resources, a number of the vended projects have substantial potential for other metals including copper, nickel and gold," Talisman said.
"In addition, both Talisman and Proto Resources and Investments are assessing other possible uranium acquisitions for vesting in the new entity."
Proto Resources said it was looking overseas, as well as domestically, for other uranium opportunities to be added to Protal.
Talisman and Proto Resources will each hold about 14 per cent of Protal post-listing.
A number of companies have spun-off their uranium assets, including Agincourt Resources Ltd (Nova Energy Ltd), Jindalee Resources Ltd (Energy Metals Ltd) and Oxiana Ltd and Minotaur Exploration Ltd (Toro Energy Ltd).
Proto Resources is conducting feasibility studies at its Barnes Hill nickel project in Tasmania while Talisman is exploring for gold and base metals in WA.
Talisman shares gained three cents to close at 20 cents while Proto Resources put on one cent to 24 cents.
[Endret 15.05.07 09:26 av Grey]
[Endret 22.05.07 05:21 av Grey]
|Uraneselskapet Wild Horse Energy listet paa ASX med ticker WHE har vaert suspendert fra handel siden 11.mai i paavente av nyheter fra selskapet.
WHE er en av favorittene til Highriskstocks.
Idag er handelen oppe igjen og WHE har annonsert at Goldman Sachs har investert 20M$ i selskapet i form av Converted notes, som kan omgjoeres til aksjer i slutten av aaret.
Dette gir midler til WHE aa framskynde investeringer de har i URAN forekomster foerst og fremst i Ungarn og USA, men ogsaa andre steder i Europa.
WHE er opp over 9 % idag.
[Endret 16.05.07 04:40 av Grey]
[Endret 16.05.07 04:41 av Grey]
[Endret 22.05.07 05:21 av Grey]
|La inn litt info om Australske uran askjer og felt her:
Australske Uranere og felt
|Uranium industry 'mainstream'
May 15, 2007
URANIUM mining has entered the Australian mainstream, with Labor's decision to drop its ban on new mines coinciding with increasing public support for the rapidly expanding industry.
But while a “political consensus” had been reached, Australian Uranium Association executive director Michael Angwin said the industry still had more work to do to expose recurring myths about uranium mining.
“The Australian uranium industry has gone from fringe dwellers to the Australian mainstream in a very short space of time,” Mr Angwin said.
“We should ourselves be robust in challenging myths that substitute for insight.”
In a keynote speech at the Australian Uranium Conference in Darwin today, Mr Angwin released results from a new poll that showed majority public support for uranium mining and exports.
Commissioned by the Australian Uranium Association, an organisation set up in September last year to promote the industry, the study found that 50 per cent of Australians supported uranium mining, with 11 per cent undecided. It also found that 59 per cent of people surveyed supported the export of uranium.
“The support is because of its economic benefits and because they see it making a contribution to climate change,” Mr Angwin said.
“People remain concerned about proliferation and waste, and they are clearly issues about which we will have to do more.
“Notwithstanding that, the results of the polling represent a solid vote of confidence in the industry and a solid platform for the industry's continuing expansion.”
The ALP's decision at the party's national conference last month to drop the party's 25-year-old no-new-mines policy was welcomed by uranium companies despite concerns that state Labor governments could create further hurdles.
Mr Angwin said the Howard Government had “some justification” in claiming that it had set the agenda for the mainstreaming of the uranium industry.
But with both major parties now supporting an expansion of uranium mining, he said other issues - such as achieving consistent regulations across state borders - had to be addressed.
“The recent ALP national conference policy reform creates, for the first time in 30 years, a political consensus for the expansion of the industry,” he said.
“The policy proposals accompanying this reform are workable. I believe our industry is ready and keen to work with ALP governments on their implementation.”
With economic growth in developing nations set to dramatically increase greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade, Mr Angwin said nuclear power was one solution to the balance between prosperity and climate change.
He said the association was drawing up a code of practice for the industry to help build public confidence. Embracing the non-proliferation regime was also a “defining challenge” for the expanding local industry.
“I think the non-proliferation regime is of vital importance to the industry,” he said.
“It's the mechanism which creates confidence in trading uranium acorss the world, and our industry, and our association, will take every opportunity we can to contribute to continuing improvement in that non-proliferation regime.”
[Endret 22.05.07 05:22 av Grey]
|re grey ,
Du mangler link ?
Nei, da var linken OK, beklager misforståelsen.
Trodde linken skulle til en Australsk side...
[Endret 16.05.07 10:40 av OldNick]
|Linken skulle gaa til Australske aksjer og innlegg no 330.
Vi proever igjen:
Australske uranere og felt
|Still Time to Get in on the Uranium Boom
By Jon A. Nones
16 May 2007 at 04:54 PM GMT-04:00
NEW YORK (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Uranium prices have risen about 15-fold since 2000, 10-fold in the last four years alone and already up 57% since the end of December 2006. Last week, the price jumped to $120 after the launch of the world’s first uranium futures. Although analysts are beginning to advocate caution, the majority say there’s still time to get in.
“Most people don’t know a uranium bull market is going on. Odds favour the uptrend continuing,” said James Dines, editor of the Dines’ Letter, at this year’s New York Hard Assets Conference.
Often called “the original uranium bug,” Dines drew a bullish picture of the market - driven by a growing supply deficit as more nuclear plants coming online. Utilities “need uranium right now,” he said.
Currently, 443 nuclear reactors operate worldwide, consuming 180 million pounds of uranium annually. Primary supply makes up about 61% of total supply with secondary supply making up the balance.
However, Russia has indicated that it will not renew its uranium agreement to supply the market with its stockpiles after 2013 and the U.S. plans to slow its uranium sales this year considerably. And now, China aims to build a strategic uranium reserve in the coming years.
According to the World Nuclear Association, mines produced about 39,655 tonnes in 2006, while nuclear plants consumed about 66,529 tonnes. This puts the supply deficit at about 60 million ounces minus inventories.
However, a report by Leeward Hedge Funds estimates the global supply-demand uranium deficit to be 10.6 million pounds (or 7%) in 2006, with 7 million pounds expected to remain in deficit from 2007 to 2010, inclusive of secondary supply sources.
“Inventory levels amongst U.S. utilities are at an extremely low level,” said Cheryl Brandon, research analyst for Leeward.
She said it is “well known” that U.S. utilities have been offloading on Japanese utilities, believing that prices would fall and the sales at the lofty levels would prove profitable in the future.
“That is obviously not the case,” she said, alluding to the price.
Brandon said the other issue is that uranium production in 2006 was lower than production in 2005, so primary supply is falling. Mine output last year fell 1.5% from 40,251 tonnes in 2005, down 5% from 41,702 tonnes in 2004.
The No. 2 producing Ranger mine in Australia has been hit with floods that could reduce the mine’s output by about 25% this year, while the No. 1 producing McArthur mine is facing challenges with expansion. Grades at Olympic Dam, the world’s largest uranium deposit, are falling as well.
Cameco’s Cigar Lake deposit was originally forecast to produce up to 18 million pounds starting in 2008, but production has been postponed until 2010 due to a disastrous flood last year. By 2011, 40%-50% of new global production was slated to come from Cigar Lake.
Given the 15-20 years required to bring a uranium mine into full production, and the fact that 66% of the world’s uranium production comes from just 10 mines, the demand on uranium production is expected to continue.
This shortfall is expected to worsen as increased reliance on nuclear energy drives uranium demand from 170 million to an estimated 210 million pounds by 2010.
Over the next 10 years, China will construct as many as three new nuclear power plants each year, resulting in increased demand for nuclear fuels of up to five times current consumption, the China News Service reported.
There are currently 20 plants under construction with plans for 72 more in Russia, China, India and Japan. In the U.S., 16 companies have submitted proposals for 25 new plants.
Elliot Gue, editor of The Energy Strategist, said electricity demand is growing at a much faster rate than anticipated in developing countries.
“Nuclear power is going to be a lot more important than most governments around the world are admitting,” said Gue.
Gue added that the higher uranium price will not be a hindrance to utilities, since uranium only makes up about 5% of the cost of producing electricity from nuclear power.
“The best plays are uranium miners,” he concluded.
[Endret 22.05.07 05:22 av Grey]
|Ref OldNick (5544)
Denne linken gaar til en side med opplisting av alle australske uranium mining and exploration companies.
Det er jo en stadig endring i eierforhold, sammenslaainger, utskilling av uranselskaper fra eksisterende mining selskap, saa listen vil vel ikke vaere helt ajour, men gir en god oversikt.
Australian Mining Shares Information Library
|Uranium exports could earn $10bn a year, says Labor
May 16, 2007
A LABOR frontbencher has defended the party's decision to support the expansion of uranium mining while standing firm against the development of nuclear power in Australia.
Addressing a uranium conference in Darwin today, Opposition transport spokesman Martin Ferguson said nuclear power did not “stack up economically” and was unrelated to the ALP's decision last month to drop its long-standing policy against new uranium mines.
Mr Ferguson, the Opposition Transport, Roads and Tourism spokesman, acknowledged that the “world has moved on” in the uranium debate, and said ensuring safeguards to guarantee its safe use should be the nation's most important priority.
Martin Ferguson today urged 300 delegates attending the Australia's Uranium Conference to "turn that huge challenge into a reality".
"With uranium prices at US$113 a pound and global uranium demand growing rapidly to meet power generation needs in a carbon constrained world we have the potential to export $10 billion a year within the next decade," Mr Ferguson said.
A long-term supporter of nuclear power, Mr Ferguson said stakeholders needed to espouse the virtues of the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO) to turn the tide of public support.
He added: “Each country will choose the energy source that suits its need."
“Australia is an energy-rich nation, the envy of the world. The energy sources that we develop and utilise are what suits out economic future.
“Contrary to what some suggest at the moment, just because we choose to sell uranium to the world doesn't mean we need to have nuclear power in Australia. The issue of nuclear power enrichment in Australia is a separate debate.”
Mr Ferguson, who first entered the uranium debate as a young union official in the Northern Territory three decades ago, said the nation's younger generation was more open-minded about uranium mining than their parents.
“Older people have a different attitude to younger people in the Australian community at the moment,” he said.
“People of my generation .... in the broader community, there is a hesitancy. But amongst our younger people, especially in the context of the greenhouse debate, there is a willingness to actually debate the issue of uranium mining. The world has moved on both internationally and domestically.”
[Endret 18.05.07 09:49 av Grey]
|No let-up in soaring uranium price: Crossland
THERE are no imminent signs of a weakening in the uranium price, which has hit $US120 ($145.96) per pound, says Bob Clearly, chairman of Crossland Uranium Mines.
Mr Cleary, a former chief executive of uranium miner Energy Resources of Australia Ltd (ERA), said global warming concerns had put uranium well and truly back on the agenda.
“Global warming concerns have caused a significant re-think about uranium's role in the world's energy mix,” he told shareholders at the Crossland annual general meeting today.
“Most developed or developing countries realise that in order to meet greenhouse commitments without significantly reducing their people's standard of living, nuclear will make up some portion of their energy needs.
“Uranium has just reached a selling price of $US120 per pound, and there is nothing on the horizon to dampen the strong market demand for the power plant fuel.”
The drivers for nuclear energy growth are well documented and include increasing global electricity demand and global warming concerns, pointing towards an increasing demand for nuclear energy and therefore uranium.
The demand for uranium is also expected to be driven by the proposed construction of 178 new nuclear reactors.
“The additional reactors under construction or committed for construction in the coming decade and beyond will only add to this pressure, so it is vital that additional discoveries of uranium are made and brought to production,” Mr Cleary said.
The uranium price has more than doubled since July when it was fetching about $US48.00 per pound on the spot market.
Crossland is exploring for uranium in the Northern Territory and South Australia.
|Takk for innsatsen på Australske U-aksjer, bransjen er spennende, selv om junior-selskapene selges litt ned for tiden.
De er enormt volatile.
Ellers, Cameco-sjefen er ikke redd for å ta store ord i sin munn, her et referat i CBC:
Cameco CEO says uranium industry flying high, mining company is ‘resilient’
May 16, 2007
SASKATOON (CP) - Times have changed for the better as far as the uranium industry is concerned and that has made Cameco Inc. strong and resilient, chief executive Gerry Grandey told shareholders of the company (TSX:CCO) at their annual meeting Wednesday.
"And it's for these times that we've been building this company," Grandey said. "Today, Cameco is resilient, robust, with a demonstrated ability, ample capacity, to seize opportunities and overcome challenges."
Les mer her
Market Call Tonight
Dennis DaSilva, portfolio manager, Middlefield Financial Limited
Thursday May 17, 2007, 19:00 (1 times video)
[Endret 19.05.07 14:14 av OldNick]
|Vi vil nok se en konsolidering i bransjen etterhvert, og det gjenstaar mange hindringer i flere land foer uran minig vil vaere "spiselig".
Uranium search gets serious
STAND by for a uranium sea change - the end of the big tenement land rush and the start of serious exploration.
This means, according to Far East Capital's Warwick Grigor, that the race is now on among the 150 or so locally listed uranium companies to find a resource while the metal's price is still in its peak phase.
Mr Grigor, who charts hundreds of resource juniors on a daily basis, said that the potential uranium supplies to be brought on to the market by Canadians and others could eventually see the price go back below $US100 a pound. The metal was still holding strong at $US120/lb last week.
But if the land rush phase is just about over, it's ending with a bang as both established explorers and latecomers scramble for projects.
And Africa seems to be the latest favourite.
In recent days, Crossland Uranium Mines has expanded its search to West Africa by joining a Canadian explorer to pick up 5000sqkm in Burkina Faso; Murchison United has begun drilling in Guinea and is raising another $6.6 million; Western Uranium has hired consultants to find it uranium projects in Africa; recent entrants New Age Exploration and Palace Resources have jointly gone hunting uranium in countries ranging from Sierra Leone to Mali; and NGM Resources is acquiring three uranium leases in Niger, a country where Canadians and Chinese companies have also been pouncing on uranium leads.
Also joining the ranks of the uranium players is Marmota Energy, a float being spun out of Monax Mining. Xenolith Gold has plumped for "nearology" and acquired tenements close to advanced projects held by Nova Energy, while oil and gas junior Rawson Resources is going looking for yellowcake opportunities in Texas, Utah, New Mexico and Colorado.
Mr Grigor, in his client note on uranium, said the uranium boom was now fact, no longer fantasy.
"This is a bull market based on hard factual economics, not fantasies and what-ifs," he wrote. "At these uranium prices, there are enormous cash flows that can be made."
And he now likes many of the companies that, two years ago, he dismissed as marginal players. These were the players with low-grade resources but - with the quadrupling of the uranium price in that time - had now been placed in an enviable position.
"If the uranium price keeps rising, these companies will shine even more," he added.
Mr Grigor expects the new exploration phase to last about two years, after which investors would be much better educated.
The more serious companies would be moving toward production, but the majority of exploration stocks would probably have withered on the vine.
Far East Capital's rankings have now been expanded to include two more companies in the potential producer category, Alliance Resources and Bannerman Resources.
Alliance has a stake in a 15,000 tonne resource in South Australia while last week a European consortium bought a large stake in Bannerman as that company looked to develop uranium mining in Namibia.
|RIO TINTO's presentasjon fra Uranium seminar 21 mai.
[Endret 22.05.07 07:43 av Grey]
[Endret 22.05.07 07:43 av Grey]
|Sjekk ut nytt om Wild Horse Energy
1. Company update
2. Nye lisenser i Polen
Wild Horse Energy begynner aa bli en internasjonal aktoer innenfor Uranium. Med mye kapital i ryggen (se Grey 338 over) saa har man muligheter til aa forsere sine planer.
Wild Horse Announcement
Fin denne helt ferske Rio Tinto presentasjonen.
Har klippet ut noen grafer, som legges ut her.
I "Nuclear fuel cylce'en" representerer innkjøpskostnad for U3O8 ca. 26% av prisen for kjernebrensel.
Innkjøpskostnad for U3O8 utgjør bare 3-5% av produksjonskostnaden for elektrisk energi fra kjernekraft. Finanskostnader (nedbetaling av verk), samt vedlikehold er dominerende kostnadsarter ved kjernekraft-produksjon.
En dobling av U3O8-prisen vil bare utgjøre noen få prosent økning i elektrisitetsprisen.
El.produsentene har stort brukt opp lager av kjernebrnsel de bygget op i 70- og 80-årene, og russerne kommer ikke til å fornye avtalen om reprosessering av høyanriket U de nå har med USA (går ut i 2013).
Grafen har en rekke forutsetninger, som kanskje ikke er gyldige.
U-markedet blri stramt frem til 2012, men sannsynligvis hele perioden frem til 2020.
Uranium Stocks: A Veritable Tsunami of Profit
(Artikkelen er udatert, men fra i år)
[Endret 25.05.07 19:20 av OldNick]
jeg maa laere meg aa lime inn bilder.
APEC moeter startet idag i Darwin. Har limt inn denne ett annet sted ogsaa, men siden det er litt betraktninger rundt Nuclear industry, saa legger jeg den her ogsaa
APEC business forum starts in Darwin
May 28, 2007 - 4:04PM
Global warming, greenhouse gas emissions, clean energy and nuclear power have dominated talks at an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) business forum in Darwin.
Monday's meeting, to be followed on Tuesday by the formal meeting of ministers from 21 Asia-Pacific economies, concentrated on ways to 'green' new and old energy resources, before selling them to governments and the public.
Rio Tinto mining executive Andy Lloyd told the gathering there was not a one size fits all approach to climate change and increasing energy demands.
"The scale of the challenge is so large that all forms of primary energy will be required to satisfy this need, including coal," he said.
One of the solutions flagged by Mr Lloyd was the development of a hydrogen power project in WA by Rio Tinto and British-based energy group BP.
It would reduce carbon emissions by injecting the bio-product - CO2 - into the sea bed, preventing it from re-entering the carbon cycle.
"We need to think around this work and ensure the building blocks are in place," he said.
But Professor George Dracoulis, who worked on a government task force considering a nuclear industry in Australia, said nuclear power created waste that would "ultimately just fade away".
"We can ask the question: is uranium going to make or break Australia as an exporter?" he said.
"The industry, since the accidents of the late 70s has had a wake-up call, there is new information sharing, uniform operational training and full scale simulators ...
"The world is watching nuclear power and nuclear power is watching itself."
Prof Dracoulis also stressed the need for uniform rules on uranium prospecting and mining nationwide.
"We need a single national regulator, investment needs a stable policy environment," he said, adding that if this were to happen Australia could match France, which built 57 reactors in five years.
"If we want to do it we can do it."
Speaking ahead of Tuesday's meeting, which he will chair, Federal Industry Minister Ian Macfarlane said it was important to recognise the important role business played in the APEC energy sector.
"Governments can't do this on their own, so we need to engage business," he said, adding that energy was a key to economic development in the region.
"APEC economies will collectively need to invest more than $US6 trillion ($A7.3 trillion) by 2030 to meet their energy requirements...
"How they do this whilst ensuring energy security and sustainability will be a key focus."
The meeting of energy ministers would also discuss how emissions from energy use could be lowered.
"We will look at how developed and developing countries can meet growing energy demands and secure the supplies of energy they require in a sustainable manner," he said.
The APEC region accounts for more than 60 per cent of world energy demand and includes the world's three biggest energy users - China, the US and Russia.
Northern Territory Chief Minister Clare Martin said the decision to hold the event in the territory's capital reflected Darwin's growing reputation as an international gas export hub.
"The LNG industry is now well and truly part of the territory landscape," she said as she welcomed more than 200 APEC ministers and delegates to the three-day event.
But Australia's major environment groups have united on the eve of the ministerial meeting to call for the rejection of old, dirty and unaffordable energy technologies.
Emma King, from the Environment Centre of the NT, said coal-fired power stations were no longer an acceptable energy source while Imogen Zethoven from The Wilderness Society said time was "running out".
"After decades of campaigning to get governments and the community to accept and act on climate change we urge APEC energy ministers to reject the nuclear furphy," she said.
Friends of the Earth's Jim Green said "going nuclear to address global warming is like taking up smoking as a weight-loss remedy".
|Minnow soars on uranium interest
IT will go down as one of the biggest one-day gains in Australian trading history.
Shares in junior miner the Gold Co (TGC) jumped a massive 543 per cent when it relisted from a five-month market hibernation and following an announcement on Monday that it would buy into Greenland uranium project Kvanefjeld.
Chairman Simon Cato said his phone had been running hot about the market move with brokers wanting to take a placement in the company as it moved to acquire Kvanefjeld in a complex transaction.
Kvanefjeld is one of the biggest untapped uranium and rare earth deposits in the world, but Greenland has a ban on uranium mining.
Mr Cato said TGC, which had a market capitalisation of $9 million before yesterday's gain, had been approached about taking on Kvanefjeld and it was not something "you would walk away from".
"It's not only uranium we are looking at - it is quite a unique project area."
To acquire an initial 61 per cent interest in Kvanefjeld, TGC will issue Chahood Capital 35 million shares and form a joint venture company with Westrip Holdings, which holds the exploration licence for Kvanefjeld.
Mr Cato would not go into detail on what Chahood was or who was involved with it, but said the details would emerge before a June meeting of TGC shareholders to approve the transaction.
TGC will also issue 65 million shares and pay $3 million to Westrip for a 61 per cent stake in the company. The shares are likely to have a price of 28c, where the stock traded when the transaction was announced on Monday.
TGC, which will be rebadged as Greenland Minerals & Energy, will pay $50 million and a further $10 million in either cash or cash/scrip to gain 100 per cent control of Kvanefjeld.
Kvanefjeld has an inferred uranium resource of 50,700 tonnes and is similar in size to the Ranger uranium mine in the Northern Territory.
TGC shares closed up $1.52 to $1.80.
|Uranium hopeful Alara in strong trading debut
May 24, 2007
YELLOWCAKE explorer Alara Uranium has debuted on the Australian stock exchange at a premium to its initial public offering price.
Alara opened at 40 cents or a 60 per cent premium to its IPO price of 25 cents.
By 12.27pm (AEST), Alara was trading at 39 cents with over 3.2 million shares changing hands.
Alara has compiled a portfolio of five projects prospective for uranium in Australia and Peru.
"Peru is a major mining country and a top five producer in several base and precious metals, including copper and gold," chairman John Stephenson said in the company's prospectus.
"While the current regulatory environment in Australia precludes the development of new uranium mines, the issue is now being debated more openly among the states/territory and federal Government."
The company plans to spend about $7.6 million on exploration over the next two years.
Joining Dr Stephenson on the board is Shanker Madan, who takes on a managing director role and Farooq Khan, who takes on an executive director role.
Alara raised $10 million through the sale of 40 million shares.
|China Embraces Nuclear Future
Optimism Mixes With Concern as Dozens Of Plants Go Up
By Ariana Eunjung Cha, Washington Post Foreign Service
May 29, 2007
YUMEN, China - Not far from the old Silk Road, Chinese government scientists have begun boring holes deep into granite in the first steps toward building what could become the world's largest tomb for nuclear waste.
As governments worldwide look at nuclear power as a possible answer to global warming, China has embarked on a nuclear-plant construction binge that eventually could exceed the one the United States undertook during the technology's heyday in the 1960s.
Under plans already announced, China intends to spend $50 billion to build 32 nuclear plants by 2020. Some analysts say the country will build 300 more by the middle of the century. That's not much less than the generating power of all the nuclear plants in the world today.
By that point, the Chinese economy is expected to be the world's largest, and the idea that it may get most of its electricity from nuclear fission is being met with both optimism and concern. Nuclear power plants, unlike those that run on fossil fuels, release few greenhouse gases. But they produce waste that can be dangerously radioactive for thousands of years.
China's plans already have been felt in world markets. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has been traveling the world to secure contracts for the uranium needed to power nuclear reactors, striking deals recently with Australia and Niger. Higher worldwide demand and a fear of future shortages have driven the price of processed uranium ore from $10 a pound in 2003 to $120 this month.
A big reason Toshiba of Japan spent $5.4 billion last year to acquire Westinghouse Electric of Pennsylvania is expectations that China will buy into the company's nuclear technology in a big way over the next 20 to 30 years.
Even by the standards of China, where economic growth has been running at blistering double-digit-percentage rates for four years, the nuclear plans are ambitious. The country derives only 2.3 percent of its electricity from nuclear power, compared with about 20 percent in the United States and nearly 80 percent in France. Nine countries get 40 percent or more of their electricity from nuclear power, but worldwide, it supplies only 17 percent of the total.
Les mer her
THE MYSTERY BEHIND URANIUM PRICING
Jonathan Ratner, Financial Post
May 30, 2007
If you think those uranium sales that are often cited as the basis for recently skyrocketing prices are secretive processes, you're right. Everyone wants to know what price people are willing to pay for the nuclear fuel.
While they are often referred to as auctions, these uranium sales are done via a single round of private sealed bids, according to Eric Webb, senior vice president of information services at Ux Consulting Co LLC.
Market monitors like UxC and TradeTech provide commentary and develop uranium spot price indicators based on the most competitive offer price out there and other deals, but they never reveal actual bids.
Unlike gold or oil, there is no formal exchange for uranium. However, the recently-established NYMEX futures market may push the showdown between traditional uranium players and a new crop of participants further.
The next auction -- for 100,000 pounds of U3O8, the naturally occuring form of uranium -- has its bids due on May 30 and comes from Mestena Uranium LLC. A previous auction of the same size from the Texas-based company drove spot uranium prices to a new record of US$113 a pound in early April. Prices now stand at US$125, according to UxC.
Another unidentified seller, possibly a hedge fund, reportedly has two lots up for sale with bids due by June 1. The first lot is said to be 200,000 pounds of U3O8, while the other is for 100 kilograms of an enriched version of uranium(UF6), which is equivalent to 260,000 pounds of U308.
These two offerings constitute the largest amount of spot uranium into the market in many months, so it wouldn't be surprising to see price indicators move again sometime soon.
When a seller is prepared to go ahead, a letter with all the bidding specifications goes out to potential buyers with accounts that can hold physical uranium. These are primarily industry participants like utilities, suppliers and those in the broader category of fuel cycle companies, as well as traders and brokers.
Canada's Uranium Participation Corp. holds its uranium through management company Denison Mines Inc. for example. However, few in the financial community have direct accounts and suppliers have generally not been interested in their business, Mr. Webb said.
While he doesn't see any acceleration in the number of lots put up for sale, the way transactions take place has changed somewhat in the last couple of years. Traditionally, buyers make requests and sellers respond with offers to sell. These days, Mr. Webb said, sellers are increasingly putting their material up for bid.
Meanwhile, another interesting development raised by some uranium experts is that speculators may be driving up the spot price of uranium in order to boost the value of their investments in mining stocks.
[Endret 31.05.07 17:37 av OldNick]
|Nuclear reactors possible on Commonwealth land - Bracks
Source: MELBOURNE, May 30 AAP
Published: May 30 2007, 11:08AM
Victoria would not be able to stop a nuclear reactor being built on commonwealth land whether the state wanted it or not, Premier Steve Bracks said today.
Speaking on ABC radio, Mr Bracks said the government opposed nuclear power generation, but had no power to prevent reactors being built on commonwealth land in Victoria.
"We can't stop that occurring," he said today. advertisement
The state government could act in the case of land being purchased for that purpose where a permit or an application to the state was required, he said.
"(But) when it comes to Commonwealth land ... we have difficulty of course in ensuring that the state legislation is applied effectively."
Mr Bracks said any moves by the federal government to build reactors in Victoria would clash with what Victorians wanted.
"They'd be overriding the wishes through the electorate of the Victorian people to go ahead with nuclear power in this state," he said.
"One of the planks on which we were elected, which we made clear in our policy in the election was there'd no nuclear power industry in Victoria."
[Endret 21.01.08 04:02 av Grey]
|Uranium May Reach $200 in Two Years, Macquarie Says
By Angela Macdonald-Smith
June 5, 2007
(Bloomberg) - Uranium spot prices may reach $200 a pound within the next two years, buoyed by a shortfall in supply and increasing investment in the nuclear fuel by speculators, said Macquarie Bank Ltd., Australia's biggest securities firm.
The price, which reached $125 a pound in mid-May, will probably average $125 a pound this year, rising to $135 next year, Macquarie said in a June 1 report. RBC Capital Markets, UBS AG and producers Rio Tinto Group and SXR Uranium One Inc. are among those also forecasting further gains.
Uranium prices have jumped 12-fold since early 2003, underpinned by a shortage, concerns over future production and a lack of investment in new mines, Macquarie said. Efforts to limit emissions of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels have bolstered demand for uranium for power generation.
"In the near term, with the market expected to remain in significant deficit in 2007-08, risk on the supply side and growing speculative interest, it is hard to see what could prevent spot prices going higher," Macquarie analysts Max Layton and John Moorhead said. "We would not be surprised to see prices move up to around $200 a pound over the next two years."
Layton, based in London, is an economist who joined Macquarie in January from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the nation's central bank. Moorhead, based in Sydney, has been at Macquarie for a year and earlier held roles at ABN Amro Morgans and BHP Billiton Ltd., owner of Olympic Dam, the world's biggest known uranium deposit.
Global uranium supply fell last year as a gain in secondary supplies from dismantled nuclear weapons failed to offset a fall in mine production.
There is no formal exchange for spot uranium, and the two principal companies quoting spot prices are Ux Consulting Co. and TradeTech. Ux quoted the spot price at $125 a pound as at May 28, while TradeTech put the price at $133 as at May 31, according to the companies' Web sites.
The New York Mercantile Exchange started a market for uranium futures last month. The price of the June contract closed yesterday at $137 a pound.
The start of the uranium futures market, where settlement is by cash only, not physical delivery, may add to price swings in the spot market through 2008, Macquarie said.
"We note the massive drop-off in spot volumes in mid-late April and early may, prior to the beginning of the commencement of futures contracts on Nymex, suggesting that one short-term risk is that the financial settlement-only futures take demand away from the spot market," the analysts said.
Macquarie's price forecast is less bullish than that of Neal Froneman, chief executive officer of Toronto-based SXR Uranium One, who said the spot price may more than double to $250 a pound next year as demand outpaces production. SXR yesterday agreed to buy Vancouver-based Energy Metals Corp. for C$1.59 billion ($1.5 billion) in shares, after in February agreeing to buy UrAsia Energy Ltd. for $3.1 billion in stock.
RBC Capital Markets last week raised its forecast for uranium spot prices. Its 2007 average forecast is now $120 a pound, up from an earlier estimate of $100, the bank said in a May 28 report. That's still lower than Macquarie's estimate. RBC raised its 2008 forecast to $145, from $85, which is higher than Macquarie's estimate for next year.
UBS also expects further gains, the bank said in a May 16 report.
"Despite sharp growth in the spot prices we remain confident that the uranium spot market will continue to strengthen over the next several years," UBS said. "Strong long-term global energy values and mounting environmental pressures will continue to drive the market forward."
Rio Tinto, the world's second-biggest producer of uranium, sees "plenty of upside" to uranium prices, Preston Chiaro, energy group chief executive officer, said last month. Rio is examining expanding output at mines in Namibia and Australia as it seeks to benefit from higher prices.
One of the risks to the forecast for higher prices in 2007 and 2008 is any positive news from Cameco Corp., the world's biggest uranium producer, about the start-up of the Cigar Lake mine in Canada, Macquarie said. Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based Cameco said last month that a flood in October at the mine, the world's largest untapped deposit of high-grade uranium, will delay start-up for three years until 2010 and help double construction costs.
Any turn in sentiment by traders, speculators and hedge funds, which have helped drive up prices in recent months, would also quickly push prices lower, Macquarie said. About 8,000 tons of uranium or almost 20 percent of mine supply, may be in the hands of speculators and hedge funds, it said. Any move by Rio Tinto to accelerate expansions at the Rossing mine in Namibia and the Ranger mine in northern Australia pose a further risk to the higher forecast, the bank said.
The uranium market supply deficit, which was 10,572 metric tons last year, should halve this year and narrow further next year to 3,945 tons, as supplies increase from new mines in Kazakhstan, Africa and North America, Macquarie estimates. Beyond 2008 the market will probably move into surplus as supply responds to higher prices, it said.
Total supply is forecast to increase by about 46 percent to 90,500 tons by 2013 from 62,192 tons in 2006. Mine supply is set to surge by 85 percent to 72,821 tons by 2013, while secondary supplies are set to fall 23 percent over the period, the bank said.
Macquarie forecasts the average uranium spot price will fall to $100 a pound in 2009, $80 in 2010 and $65 in 2011, then to a longer-term average forecast of $40.
[Endret 05.06.07 15:23 av OldNick]
Empire buys WA uranium prospect
June 7, 2007 - 12:00PM
Uranium explorer Empire Resources Ltd has bought a full interest in the Yarlarweelor uranium prospect in Western Australia.
Empire finished the sole licence application agreement with Zetek Resources Ltd, where it will explore the approximately 575 square kilometres area in the Wilthorpe region, about 125 km north of Meekatharra.
Previous exploration for the region was undertaken between 1978 and 1982, with primary and secondary uranium minerals found in a number of places.
"A major exploration program is planned to test the prospect," managing director David Sargeant said.
"We will start with ground radiometric surveys and drilling to confirm the previously identified occurrences of primary uranium mineralisation," Mr Sargeant said.
Empire issued five million shares to Zetek and paid $70,333 with a further 2.5 million shares to be issued once a bank feasibility study begins.
Mr Sargeant said this purchase brought another great early-stage exploration site to the company's portfolio in Western and Southern Australia.
"Uranium, as a commodity, is well placed to build shareholder value," Mr Sargeant said.
|Mega Uranium cashed up for acquisitions
June 8, 2007 - 4:54PM
Canadian-based Mega Uranium Ltd says it is cashed up with a $112 million warchest for potential acquisitions, with Australian companies likely to be high up on the shopping list.
The company has already made a foray into Australia's uranium sector through the acquisition of Hindmarsh Resources Ltd and Redport Ltd last year.
Mega Uranium director Tony Grey said Australia was the best place in the world to explore for uranium and the company had the funds and was keen to build on its portfolio.
"I consider that Australia is still the best place in the world for uranium exploration, particularly in the Pine Creek Geosyncline in the Northern Territory," he told delegates at the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies conference in Perth on Friday.
"(Mega Uranium) has got $C100 million ($A112 million) in cash ... so it's got some firepower, which is going to be directed in increasing its portfolio.
"It is a very acquisitive company, it only does things on a friendly basis, but it is acquisitive in the sense that it want's to build up its portfolio ... and become a major factor in the uranium business worldwide."
Mr Grey said past uranium policies had made Australian-based companies cheaper in comparison to their North American peers.
"They have been cheaper because of the policy and there has always been a cloak of doom over Australian's uranium potential because of that - but that's beginning to open up now," he said.
Mr Grey also questioned Queensland and Western Australia's continued opposition to uranium mining, warning the state's might miss the window of opportunity to cash in on the current yellowcake frenzy.
"At the present time Australia is split politically," Mr Grey said.
"Queensland and WA are against uranium development, the Northern Territory and South Australia are in favour.
"The question now is not whether Australia will miss the boat again, but whether Queensland or Western Australia will."
[Endret 08.06.07 09:27 av Grey]
|Litt fra Juniors i Otish Mountain, Quebec.
Uranium digs get growing reaction
Strateco plans. Mine expected to be in place in 2011
LYNN MOORE, The Gazette
June 13, 2007
The $125-million question came at the end of uranium explorer Strateco Resources Inc.'s annual meeting in Montreal yesterday.
It was a natural one for Strateco, which is widely seen as the current leader of a growing pack of uranium explorers poking away in northern Quebec. Last year, about $16 million was spent on uranium exploration in Quebec.
This year's educated guess by government geologists is that about $30 million will be spent, much of it near the Otish Mountains. That's where Strateco has laid claim to 164 square kilometres that have about 88 drill holes in one sliver of the property.
Guy Hebert (centre), president of Strateco Resources, speaks with Jean-Guy Masse (left) and Jeff MacKean after the company's annual meeting at the Queen Elizabeth Hotel in Montreal yesterday. Photo: PHIL CARPENTER, THE GAZETTE
"Should everything go according to plan ... when do you anticipate having a uranium mine?" a shareholder asked company president Guy Hebert, a mining veteran who has led successful exploration companies such as Audrey Resources.
He did not rush the answer. There are many hurdles between promising drill-hole results - where Strateco is at now - and a mining operation, especially for one of the most regulated metals in the world.
In addition to an array of resource calculations, feasibility studies and myriad permits, a formal environmental impact assessment has to be undertaken. If that assessment takes three years to complete, that's considered fast, Hebert told the assembly.
But, when all is said and done, "we think there will be a mine in 2011," Hebert said. And that mine should cost $125 million and require one year to construct.
With global energy demand rising steadily, nuclear-generated power is now seen by some as a viable alternative to coal and oil. According to the World Nuclear Association, reactors now number 435 and are expected to rise to 506 by 2015.
Les mer her
Uranium: Past, Present and Future
By Jackie Steinitz, ResourceInvestor.com
12 Jun, 2007
LONDON (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Although uranium was discovered in 1789 its commercial history has been relatively short; the first practical use of nuclear power was to light four light bulbs in Idaho in 1951, and the first nuclear power plant was built just 50 years ago in Pennsylvania. An understanding of uranium’s history, albeit a short one, is important in understanding its outlook, as it is a commodity for which history is still very much shaping its future.
A man well qualified to speak on the past, present and future of uranium is Steve Kidd, the Director of Research and Strategy at the World Nuclear Association (WNA), who gave an eloquent presentation at the recent 20:20 Uranium Day conference in London.
The WNA, formerly known as the Uranium Institute, is an association of some 135 producers and consumers of uranium from 35 different countries which seeks to promote the peaceful worldwide use of nuclear power as a sustainable energy resource. It has a wide-ranging brief (see its website for details) including the provision of a respected information service on nuclear energy.
Here Mr. Kidd speaks to Resource Investor about his views on the outlook for uranium.
Cameco uranium deposit an absolute "gold mine"
Jun 29, 2007
By Cameron French, Reuters
McARTHUR RIVER, Saskatchewan - You could say Cameco Corp. (CCO.TO) is sitting on a veritable gold mine these days, but such a compliment would actually undersell the value of the high-grade uranium buried in its flagship McArthur River mine in northern Saskatchewan.
With spot uranium prices around $135 a pound and the mine producing an industry best 21 percent pure uranium ore, the product piped up from the half-kilometre deep deposit is far more valuable than anything you'd find in a typical gold mine.
The mine -- which is also 30 percent owned by France's state-owned nuclear group Areva (CEPFi.PA) - holds 367 million pounds of reserves and should produce 18.7 million pounds this year, about 17 percent of global supply and enough to meet about 7 percent of U.S. electricity demand, the company says.
"It is the single most unique mine of any mineral commodity in the world," Cameco Chief Executive Jerry Grandey told reporters at the company's head office in Saskatoon this week.
"Take the best gold mine in the world at 2 ounces per tonne, and gold is at $650 an ounce, so it's $1,300 per ton of rock. You take 410 pounds (of uranium per tonne) times $136 a pound, and you're where, $50,000?"
"Do the math, it's astonishing."
Of course, Cameco isn't selling its ore at the spot price of around $135, as it mostly sells into long-term contracts at lower prices. But even so, the mine is a lucrative operation, and promises to remain so as it contains reserves that should last another two decades.
On a tour of the mine this week, reporters saw a high-tech operation that extracts the radioactive metal using techniques that would have been out of reach of the miners of the last uranium boom that ended in the 1980s.
[Endret 20.06.07 08:26 av OldNick]
[Endret 30.06.07 07:49 av OldNick]
The ore deposit sits about 500 to 600 metres (yards) below the surface, where dry bedrock meets the water-saturated sandstone of the Athabasca Basin -- the same type of sandstone that flooded Cameco's Cigar Lake mine last year, delaying its expected date of production to 2010.
Underground tunnels at McArthur River are carved in the bedrock and holes are drilled vertically into the ore to retrieve the uranium. to avoid flooding, the water-soaked sandstone is frozen in the immediate area by piping in brine at -30 degrees Celsius (-22 Fahrenheit).
"It's just a sponge under pressure, and we're just working right underneath it," says mine manager Joel Rheault, adding that at 530 metres underground -- the upper part of the deposit -- the water pressure is equal to being 530 metres underwater.
The surrounding water pressure is evident on the half-kilometre (1,640-foot) elevator ride down to the tunnels, as a steady rain cascades down the elevator shaft.
To maintain air quality, high-powered vents blast fresh air through the tunnels at a rate that recycles the underground atmosphere every 7 minutes.
The uranium ore, which at an average 21 percent is too concentrated to be handled safely, is dealt with only from afar, as it is picked up by remote-controlled front-end loaders, or "scoops", which deposit it in an underground processing system.
The purity of the deposit is about 100 times that of an average uranium mine, meaning the volume of ore extracted is a mere fraction of what would be pulled from a typical mine.
However, despite the radioactivity, the main concern is the potential of flooding, particularly after an "inflow" in 2003 that was stopped before it could become much worse.
Since that incident, the mine has added extra precautions, including increasing the capacity to pump out water and not using explosives in tunnel boring.
At Cigar Lake, workers were unable to stop the water, forcing them to abandon the mine and let it flood. The resulting delay in production has been a factor in the continued rise in uranium prices, as the mine's annual production is expected to almost match McArthur River's once it gets going.
With the small amount of actual ore extracted, McArthur could quite easily raise its own production, Cameco says, but is prevented from doing so by federal environmental laws. The company has applied to boost production to help make up for the delay of the Cigar Lake's output.
Cameco -- along with several other companies -- is also exploring elsewhere in the area, hoping to stumble upon another "gold mine" buried deep under the Saskatchewan sandstone.
"It's a lot of guesswork," said Rheault. "Its just a matter of poking at it until you hit something."
The Future of Nuclear Power, MIT 2003
Speculators Fail to Find Buyers at US$135/Pound
July 2nd, 2007
After 47 consecutive months without a drop in price, weekly spot U3O8 had a small hiccup.
According to the month-ending edition of Nuclear Market Review (NMR), the spot uranium price registered at US$135/pound at the end of June – down by US$3/pound from the previous week.
“After 23 months of tight supply, rising spot prices, and intense bidding for material, buying interest has waned considerably,” wrote NMR editor Treva Klingbiel. “And the market now sees increasing interest on the part of sellers to move material.”
Lack of aggressive buyers helps explain why TradeTech dropped the consulting service’s U3O8 price indicator this past week.
“A few told us they would be willing to sell at US$135/pound, but have not been able to find buyers at this price,” chief executive Gene Clark told StockInterview in a telephone interview. “No one really needs it to meet contract delivery requirements right now. All the buying interest seems to be from discretionary buyers.”
According to the June 30th issue of NMR, active spot supply rose to 2.5 million pounds U3O8 while active demand dropped to less than 900 thousand pounds. The supply/demand ratio rose to 2.8 during June.
For the rest of the summer, and especially during August, Clark predicts the market will remain slow, given the historical experience. “Maybe we’ll see more buying in the fall,” he told us.
According to Matthew Smith of TheInvestar, “Uranium stocks hit support levels across the board this past week.” Smith believes his Canadian uranium mining stocks index could drop by another 10 percent or more
[Endret 02.07.07 09:28 av OldNick]
[Endret 03.07.07 17:13 av OldNick]
|Uranium in for correction, not a rout
July 02, 2007
BEING unashamedly and firmly one of the glass-is-half-empty crowd, Pure Speculation needs to detect only a zephyr of doubt to begin looking on the gloomy side of life. And being able to smugly throw in a "we did warn you" rider does add lustre to a spot of bad news.
The latest quarterly report from Sydney-based Resource Capital Research reminds us that the present uranium spot price is $US136 a pound; that's 45 per cent up from the $US95/lb level three months ago and a 111 per cent gain on the $US65.50/lb six months back. RCR is bullish, saying indications are for $US148/lb in the near term and $US165/lb by September 2008.
But we're now seeing a growing tide of reports from Canada saying there is concern the uranium price may have already peaked - although you have to factor in that power utilities are anxious to talk down the price. Buy orders are drying up, and some uranium for sale has been withdrawn from the market. Cameco, the world's biggest producer, saw its stock take a terrific hammering on the Toronto exchange early last week.
But it will be a correction, not a rout. The usual pattern is for buyers to re-emerge once prices come off a little, and there's no doubt that uranium demand will be strong in the years ahead. But those investing in companies with low-grade or unexplored tenements might like to pause for reflection.
NO doubt a good many investors are already scratching their heads at the price retreat in a range of uranium stocks.
Having one mine in operation and another on the way hasn't stopped Paladin Resources falling from $10.70 in April to $8.26 on Friday. On the exploration front, the once hot Toro Energy closed at 95c, compared with $1.28 two months ago. Alliance Resources has a slice of an advanced 15,000-tonne deposit in South Australia, with more high-grade hits last month. No good: its shares are at $1.74 compared with $2.85 in May.
And reports of further high-grade hits at Bigrlyi haven't restored Energy Metals to its April high of $8.34. Other recent market darlings have also suffered share price pain - Crossland Uranium Mines, A-Cap Resources and Black Range Minerals among them.
Yet a few continue to do well. Marathon Resources, one of the better fancied South Australian plays, was $3.88 at the start of April, $6.75 on Friday.
THIS all suggests that buying a uranium project might no longer be the quick fix for a lagging share price. But this hasn't stopped more from leaping in. The latest entrant is Pacific Enviromin. This company has previously been concentrating on bentonite, which, among other things, makes good cat litter. Now it has acquired 22,000sqkm of uranium tenements in the Northern Territory and a smaller parcel in Queensland.
But we still like something a bit more advanced. Thatcher Soak in Western Australia is living up to promise, with Uranex reporting intersections up to 0.82 per cent U3O8.
BACK in 1958, Don Walker acquired the Herberton assets of the Great Northern Tin Co, which had been a Queensland producer of that metal since 1881. He was subsequently Australia's representative on the former International Tin Council. Without him and his tenement holdings, North Queensland Metals would probably not exist.
NQM was a modest float last December, going to market for just $2.5 million with Walker on the board. It has just picked up another 13 tenements in the old tin mining area inland from Innisfail. And the company has an interesting strategy.
Tin mining in the area boomed until the 1930s, revived in the 1960s and then closed down again when the tin market went bust in the 1980s. There were several big companies mining their own deposits as well as buying ore from the hordes of small-time players (there being about 400 recorded mines in the area).
There are still plenty of prospectors with their own piece of turf, and NQM's plan is to develop several deposits on their own to supply one central treatment plant, but then go back to the strategy of the old days in terms of buying from any individuals who want to start producing ore.
The company hopes to have its core Baal Gammon project producing by late 2008 as a copper-tin proposition. But the 5.8 million tonne resource also has indium, used in electronics, at an average grade of 29 grams/tonne. NQM has received a lot of calls from Chinese companies about the indium.
INVESTORS in iron ore players getting up and running in Western Australia's mid-west might soon need to re-crunch their numbers. It had been assumed that companies not near railways would have to build their own and, indeed, Murchison Metals is working on such a study. There is also the Yilgarn Infrastructure Group, which fancies itself as the big port-rail player in the region, but it now faces having its nose put out of joint.
Babcock & Brown Infrastructure Group has entered the picture. It controls WestNet Rail, the 5100km railway network in WA. And it wants to build its own iron ore lines in the mid-west - serving Murchison's Jacks Hill mine near Meekatharra, passing the proposed Midwest Corp Weld Range development, with a branch out to Wiluna where Golden West Resources is working up a resource.
This means B&B would be putting up the capital for rail developments, not the individual mining companies - a huge slice off mine capital costs.
THIS column has always had a soft spot for energy juniors chancing their arm in the US. So it is heartening to see Redfork Energy believing it has a company-maker. This junior reports an initial coal seam methane reserve in Oklahoma of 37.5 billion cubic feet, worth about $270 million at present prices. Pipelines riddle the area, and the city of Tulsa is in close proximity.
Redfork is presently pumping about 600,000 cubic feet of gas a day with prices running at about $US7 per 1000 cubic feet. That's about three times what gas goes