|Mining, generell topic
|Starter en ny topic om temaet "Mining", som innebefatter alt som har med gruvedrift og metall- og mineral-produksjon å gjøre.
Topic'en kan sies videreføre den "gamle topic'en: Metall-rally, er Nikkel & Kobolt et alternativ?, som har et visst historisk innhold (siden den ble startet i Jan-2003).
Den er dog ikke blitt oppdatert det siste året, så derfor fant jeg det mer opportunt å starte en ny.
På tross av finanskrisen (eller gjeldskrisen) som vi (dvs. i-landene) er i, så ser de fleste råvarebransjene (som gruvebransjen) ut til å gjeninnhentet boom-trendene vi så fra 2003-2007.
Årsaken finner vi ikke i vår del av verden, for i de industrialiserte landene har etterspørselen etter slike varer ikke hentet seg igjen, og ligger stort sett betydelig under nivåene fra 2007.
Nei, årsaken finner vi i den økonomiske boom'en som bare ser ut til å fortsette i u-landene som har fått vekstsmaskineriet opp i et høygir igjen.
Enkelt sagt er det Kina, Kina, Kina som fortsatt driver markedene, og for mange råvarer er vekstprognosene enten høye 1-sifret eller 2-sifret % per år.
På slutten av dette 10-året (2001-2010) utgjør Kina's etterspørsel mellom 20 og 50% av verdensmarkedet for mange industrielle råvarer (commodities).
I slutten av dette 10-året vil vi se at Kina vil utgjøre >50% av verdensmarkedet for de samme råvarene, det være seg kull, jernmalm/stål, aluminium, kobber, nikkel, sink, sement etc.
Problemet for Kina (og delvis India som ligger ca. 10 år etter i utviklingsløypa), er at de ikke har de fysiske ressursene innenfor egne landegrenser, og er avhengig av en stadig økende import av disse, enten i ubearbeidet form (som malm eller halvfabrikata såsom konsentrater eller andre "intermediates") eller i ferdig bearbeidet form (raffinerte produkter), og det vil da være basis for forretningsideen til en stadig økende etablering av nye selskaper innenfor bransjen.
Endret 28.11.2010 12:20 av OldNick
|Pris- og lagerbildet for noen børsnoterte råvarer underbygger denne utsikten:
Metallpris- og lager diagrammene er hentet fra: http://metalprices.com/PubCharts/
Fra siden MetalPrices, som har lagt ut chart som kan linkes på private, interne nettsider.
Endret 28.11.2010 12:22 av OldNick
|Børsutviklingen for de globale, diversifiserte greuvegigantene viser samme bildet (i rekkefølge etter børsverdi):
BHP Billiton, Australia/UK (ASX:BHP, L:BLT, N:BHP)
VALE, Brazil (SaoPaulo:VALE3, N:VALE - ord., handles også i Paris og på Euronext) (SaoPaulo:VALE3 - pref.)
Rio Tinto, Australia/UK (ASX:RIO, L:RIO, N:RTP)
Xstrata, Sveits (Zurich:XTA, L:XTA)
Anglo American, Sør Afrika/UK (L:AAL, J.burg:)
Børsvedien på disse 5 ligger mellom ca. US$60 og 250 mrd.
Det er mye forventninger innebygget i disse chartene, det skal også være sagt.
Endret 28.11.2010 12:26 av OldNick
|Denne tankevekkende artikkelen kan danne en grei innledning til denne topic'en.
Gold Miners & Explorers Face Serious Supply Problems
Brent Cook, Exploration Insights, for The Gold Report
Geologist Brent Cook, of Exploration Insights, in this exclusive article for The Gold Report, takes a look at the major gold mining companies' dilemma-declining production as the gold price is hitting record levels. He also explains how the junior gold explorers are confronting a similar dilemma-fewer legitimate exploration properties with the real potential to host a major economic deposit. The rare micro-cap company that discovers a meaningful gold deposit is immediately in the sights of the cash-rich gold mining companies in need of new reserves. More importantly, anyone owning these junior companies, a few of whom are mentioned later, stands to make a substantial profit.
Exploration Success Comes from Being in the Right Place
Geologic success can only come about if a company is exploring in the right geologic terrain-a terrain that is capable of hosting a major deposit. This is, of course, easier said than done, and it is critical that the speculator in this sector be able to recognize the difference between a legitimate play and a questionable story.
Unfortunately for the speculator, Mother Nature has been very generous and supportive to the exploration sector. She has scattered gold, copper and silver anomalies all over the world, then hidden what lies beneath them under gravel and jungle. She has then left the elucidation of what lies below the surface to a discipline that is best described as art informed by science: geology. Geology and minerals exploration are not exact sciences. Minerals exploration is not accomplished through the careful mixing of measured quantities at a sterile laboratory or by complex mathematical calculations done on a computer. It is done by geologists working in the frozen wastelands and barren deserts of countries that most of us didn't know existed 10 years ago. They are invariably dealing with a limited data set and projecting that information into the third and most important dimension, depth. Testing that dimension requires drilling, an expensive endeavor that usually provides more questions than answers.
Success for the speculator therefore depends on 1) investing in management that is intelligent, honest, and financially committed and 2) properly assessing a property's potential to host a major deposit as early as possible. The "Life cycle of a junior explorer" graph presented below (Fig. 1) illustrates the normal evolution of a successful discovery from startup to production. The time to buy is when you find the right management team exploring in the right place-at the right price, of course.
(Fig. 1- Life of a junior mining share)
Profiting Comes from Selling at the Right Time
Knowing when to sell becomes a more complex issue after the initial success: you have to know what the mineral deposit could actually be worth. To do so early on requires a realistic estimate of the probable mining, processing and capital costs, plus, metallurgical recovery, strip ratio and local infrastructure. Tax rates, royalties, permitting, and social and political issues all have to be factored in as well. Ultimately, your sell price should be dependent on a rough net present valuation (NPV) estimate of the deposit the junior company has discovered, or at least appears to have discovered. That basic knowledge provides the edge that allows an investor to sell a stock when other less informed speculators are still buying.
Endret 28.11.2010 12:28 av OldNick
|Gold Mines and Discoveries are in Short Supply
Major gold mining companies are facing a big problem. They are unable to find and develop enough ounces to keep up with demand, for the simple fact that economic gold deposits are extremely rare. The chart below (Fig. 2) of global gold mine production during the past 30 years demonstrates this fact. Production shows a very simple trend: it rose until about 2000 and has fallen since then. This reduced production occurred even as the price of gold has increased nearly 400% in the past 10 years. This incongruity tells us something fundamental-there's a problem.
(Fig. 2- Global gold mine production 1980 to 2009)
From 1980 to about 1992, production from South Africa, North America and Australia increased dramatically. Since then it has been falling just as dramatically. Production in the rest of the world (Rest of World) picked up at about the same time production dropped in the established mining districts, and has been filling the gap in production since then. The reasons for the early increase in production from South Africa, North America and Australia, and the later increase in the rest of world are due to factors that are not likely to be repeated. This has important implications for major gold mining companies, exploration companies and ultimately us here at Exploration Insights.
There are three main reasons why gold production increased up to 2000, despite declining gold prices.
The first is the advent of new mining and processing technologies that made previously uneconomic low-grade deposits economic. This was mostly a result of heap-leach technology and bulk-mining methods. This meant mining companies could now scrape up large areas of low-grade mineralization and sprinkle a cheap solution of cyanide on the rock to recover the gold. This primarily worked on near-surface oxidized deposits in relatively dry climates.
The second is that vast regions of the world that had previously been closed for various reasons were opened up to exploration. These new areas include much of Latin America, Africa and the former Soviet Union. I was part of that movement; we were able to walk onto obvious deposits with new eyes and rapidly drill out those resources. It also became markedly easier to get into these areas, so we were able to go deeper into the jungles and deserts.
The third is that geologists had a whole slew of new exploration tools with which to scan the earth. These include satellite imagery, geophysics and more sensitive chemical tools.
The net result was that new technologies kept old deposits going longer and made previously uneconomic ones viable, thereby ramping up production into the early '90s. New deposits in previously unexplored and off-limits areas kept that production going until about 2000. All well and good, but as the image below shows (Fig. 3), the industry is not finding as many new deposits as they need to in order to maintain current production levels. And, although we can expect incremental technological improvements in processing, mining and exploration, there is nothing revolutionary on the horizon.
(Fig. 3- Global gold discoveries by size. After McKeith, Schodde, and Baltis, 2010)
This is a worrisome slide for major gold producers-they are unable to sustain themselves. For the most part they are surviving via old deposits that are running out of ore and newer deposits that are quickly headed into the "old" deposit category. Reserves from these aging deposits are not being replaced by new discoveries. Producers' problems are further exacerbated by rising exploration and development costs, plus the significant time it now takes to permit and finance a new deposit, if they are able to at all-a subject for another day.
Endret 28.11.2010 12:29 av OldNick
|Everything I have said up to now is good news for the junior explorers and for those of us speculating in this sector. If a company can make an economic discovery, there are ready buyers willing and able to pay a significant premium for something they want and need.
Now for the Bad News: It Ain't Easy. Consider this Next Diagram
(Fig. 4- Schematic diagram of geologic models, environments, and types of deposits associated with subduction related magmatic arcs; after Corbett)
This very complex schematic diagram, a small cross section through the earth's surface, illustrates all of the deposit types and settings associated with subduction related magmatic mineral systems: essentially the Pacific Ring of Fire and some zones running up through Central Europe and Eurasia. With each of these individual settings comes a characteristic mineral and alteration assemblage that changes with distance from the hydrothermal source. This "zoning" reflects and is a result of different chemical, pressure and temperature environments. On top of those primary factors we have to overlay the structural setting and rock type, either of which can be the make-or-break feature for the formation of an economic mineral deposit. An economic mineral deposit results from the unique combination of all of these features, a combination that rarely occurs in nature.
Although nearly every intrusive magma body (the hatched bodies in the diagram) will have some of the right stuff, I would estimate that 90% of these mineral systems do not contain a geologically economic deposit-they have anomalies; the very same anomalies that keep the exploration industry in business. That "geologically economic" classification doesn't consider the added criterion that takes the mineralization into the truly economic category: it has to be near enough to the surface and recoverable to be economically viable. To those hurdles we can add political, environmental and social obstacles.
Now place the same diagram under thick jungle cover or hundreds of meters of gravel and you begin to get the sense of how hard it actually is to make a real discovery. This is why maybe less than 1% of the exploration projects out there will ever turn into an economic discovery, and nearly all the exploration companies eventually go broke.
It is also why the Exploration Insights portfolio is comprised of relatively few companies-almost everyone is looking in the wrong place. Some of the companies on our list that were, and are, clearly the right people in the right place include AuEx Ventures Inc. (TSX:XAU), Lydian International (TSX:LYD), Mirasol Resources Ltd. (TSX.V:MRZ) and Kaminak Gold Corporation (TSX.V:KAM). We recognized early on that they were run by intelligent and committed people and just as importantly, they were exploring in the right place. That is really all it takes, plus a bit of luck.
If, for example, you are a company exploring for gold, you have to know where you are, and, more importantly, where you are not in these geologic models. If you are an investor in said company, you had better know too. It means all the difference between making a fortune on what the market has presented you-a sweet spot where the major miners need new deposits and can afford to pay top dollar for discoveries-and missing a real opportunity.
Economic Geologist and Author
Brent Cook brings more than 25 years of experience to his role as a geologist, consultant and investment adviser. His knowledge spans all areas of the mining business from the conceptual stage through to detailed technical and financial modeling related to mine development and production. His hallmarks include applying rigorous factual analysis to the projects and companies he examines, and augmenting his analysis with on-site field evaluations. He has worked in more than 60 countries on virtually every mineral deposit type. Brent's weekly Exploration Insightsn
|Et av problemene med majors, er at de har fått problemer med oppkjøp pga. en gryende nasjonalistisk og proteksjonistisk politikk i ressursrike land, ikke bare i u-land men også i i-land som Canada.
Som denne artikkelen illustrerer med Globe's analyse av BHP's mislykkede bud på Canadiske Potash Corp.
Protectionist sentiment dogs BHP
Andy Hoffman - Asia-Pacific Reporter, Perth, Australia
Nov. 16, 2010
A surge of global protectionism has hamstrung the world's biggest mining company, but BHP says it has no plans to retreat from the pursuit of top-tier resource assets.
During the brief tenure of chief executive officer Marius Kloppers, BHP has attempted to seal three blockbuster multibillion-dollar deals in the past two years. Every one of them has died.
BHP chairman Jac Nasser blames the company's dismal M&A record on a rising tide of protectionist sentiment across the globe that has emerged in response to the global financial crisis.
"The world is changing, whether you want to call it protectionism or nationalism," Mr. Nasser told reporters after the company's annual general meeting in Perth. "But there is certainly a trend towards a more difficult process when you're looking at larger cross-border transactions."
The economic downturn has heightened regulatory scrutiny for major acquisitions and contributed to the string of failed deals attempted by the Australian mining giant. Amid threats of a global currency war, an increase in protectionist sentiment and the subsequent decrease in foreign direct investment could add to the world's economic challenges.
Under the guidance of Mr. Kloppers, BHP has spent $875-million (U.S.) in the past two years on the pursuit of three major deals that it failed to close.
This week, BHP killed its hostile bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., 11 days after Ottawa ruled that the proposed $38.6-billion hostile takeover would not be a "net benefit" to Canada.
BHP abandoned the bid after the government demanded it explicitly commit to building its own early stage potash development project in Saskatchewan - an estimated $10-billion investment decision that BHP was unprepared to make at such an early stage of development. Ottawa also wanted BHP to commit to selling its potash production through the Canpotex marketing arm "indefinitely," according to sources close to BHP.
The Potash rejection followed the European Union's decision to block a proposed combination of BHP's iron ore mining assets with those of U.K. rival Rio Tinto PLC. Before that, BHP abandoned a full takeover bid for Rio Tinto at the height of the economic downturn.
"It is a natural reaction that governments and society will have when things are difficult," said Mr. Nasser, adding that he hopes the rise in protectionist sentiment will prove to be a short-term issue rather than a "long-term structural shift."
Critics now say that BHP, the sixth-largest company in the world with a market value approaching $250-billion, may have become too big to execute its strategy of acquiring top-tier resource assets as governments and regulators push back against major mergers and takeovers.
Mr. Nasser suggested that had BHP attempted to buy Potash or execute the iron ore joint venture with Rio Tinto several years ago, "it would have been a different process."
But the BHP chairman dismissed reports that it will now refashion its acquisitions toward smaller, more manageable targets.
"We're not about to change from transactions that potentially involve tier-one assets ... to go after second-tier, lower-quality acquisitions," Mr. Nasser told shareholders. "Don't look to us to be chasing smaller acquisitions of lower quality."
Speculation is now rampant that BHP may set its sights closer to home on Woodside Petroleum Ltd., which is Australia's larg
Endret 28.11.2010 12:46 av OldNick
|Rio Tinto - Investorseminar 26 Nov. 2010
Endret 01.12.2010 07:38 av tas1
|Copper Stockpiles Slumping Makes Metal a Goldman Pick
By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen (Bloomberg)
Dec. 6, 2010
The biggest slump in copper inventories in six years is compounding shortages as prices head toward record highs, making the metal a top pick for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley.
Demand will outpace supply by 367,500 metric tons next year, enough for wires, pipes and appliances in about 1.8 million U.S. homes, according to the median forecast of 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Stockpiles may drop to an all- time low of less than one week's usage, said Michael Widmer, a London-based metals analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Global exchange inventories have dropped 22 percent this year, heading for the largest slide since 2004, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Prices advanced 35 percent since June 30 even as the International Monetary Fund predicted slower world growth, U.S. unemployment stuck near its highest level in more than a quarter century and China, which uses two in every five tons of copper, curbed lending and raised interest rates. Now, banks from Credit Suisse Group to Barclays Capital are predicting higher prices, with the median in the Bloomberg survey at a record average of $8,542 a ton for 2011, 15 percent more than this year.
Demand for the metal, used in everything from smart phones to brake pads, will increase 4.2 percent next year, compared with a 2.6 percent gain in production, Barclays Capital said in a report Nov. 11. Supplies fell 363,000 tons short of demand in the first eight months of this year, the Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group said in a report Nov. 23.
Mining companies have failed to keep pace with demand because new reserves are getting harder to find and the quality of ore is declining, meaning less metal is extracted from each ton of earth. Average grades declined to about 1.1 percent this year from 1.6 percent in 1990, according to Guildford, England- based researcher Brook Hunt, a Wood Mackenzie company.
Production at Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, will drop as much as 10 percent in the 12 months ending in June because of lower grades, Melbourne-based BHP Billiton, the largest shareholder, said in a statement Aug. 25.
Freeport-McMoRan, the largest listed producer, said Oct. 21 that its copper sales from North America would drop to 1.1 billion pounds this year from 1.2 billion pounds in 2009. Sales from Indonesia will probably decline to 1.2 billion pounds from 1.4 billion, the Phoenix-based company said.
"The major copper reserves that are being produced today come from 100 year-old mines, with few exceptions," Freeport Chairman James R. Moffett said in a conference call on Nov. 17.
Analysts' forecasts for shortages may not yet be reflected in futures markets. Copper for delivery in December 2011 traded at $8,555 on Dec. 3 on the LME, 1.9 percent below than the benchmark contract for delivery in three months.
Goldman predicts prices of $11,000 by then and buying the December 2011 contract is one of its seven recommendations in commodities, according to a report Dec. 1.
The forecast gains could be stunted by slowing growth. Prices slumped 7.7 percent in three days last month on concern China's steps to control inflation may curb demand for metals and that Ireland would need a banking bailout.
Prices now may also be skewed by who owns metal. One unidentified company held 50 percent to 79 percent of the LME's deliverable stockpiles as of Dec. 1, bourse data show. Buyers that day paid the largest premium in two years for immediate supply, relative to the three-month contract. Deliverable inventories total 324,375 tons, the exchange said Dec. 6.
Record prices could encourage users to substitute cheaper materials. Global consumption may be 100,000 tons less than
Endret 07.12.2010 20:34 av OldNick
Substitution may take out 3 percent of demand this year and next, according to London-based Rio Tinto Group. New uses in electric and hybrid cars should make up for some of that, Andrew Harding, chief executive officer of Rio's copper business, said Nov. 26. The average North American car contains about 23 kilograms (51 pounds), while an electric car uses about 75 kilograms, he said.
The tripling of prices since December 2008 is also spurring use of scrap metal, alleviating shortages signaled by this year's 22 percent drop in stockpiles monitored by exchanges in London, Shanghai and New York. The supply of metal from wires and electronic goods jumped 25 percent in the first eight months, the International Copper Study Group reported in November.
The biggest threats to higher prices are China tightening its monetary policy and a worsening European debt crisis, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Widmer, whose March prediction for this year's average price is accurate to within 2 percent.
China may raise bank reserve requirements to counter capital inflows and a possible jump in lending at the start of 2011, Li Daokui, an adviser to the central bank, said Dec. 3. The bank pushed the one-year lending rate to 5.56 percent in October, the first increase since 2007.
Still, manufacturing grew at a faster pace for a fourth straight month in November, according to the nation's logistics federation. China's economy will expand 9 percent in 2011, compared with 10 percent this year, according to the median of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would still be more than three times the speed of the U.S., the second-biggest copper user, the survey shows.
Consumption in China, India, Brazil and the Middle East will expand at an average annual rate of 7 percent per capita through 2015, according to Barclays Capital.
"Where is all the new copper going to come from?" said Tom Patton, chief executive officer of Quaterra Resources Inc., a Vancouver-based company developing mines in North America. "New deposits take 10 to 15 years to start up."
Aurubis AG, Europe's largest smelter, is also predicting higher demand next year.
"We presently see a very positive order flow for next year," Bernd Drouven, chief executive officer of the Hamburg- based company, said by e-mail. "Every copper price dip is recognized by customers as an opportunity for new orders."
Demand from Asia helped Santiago-based Codelco, the biggest producer, increase the surcharge on sales to China next year by 35 percent, more than the 23 percent increase for Europe, industry officials said last month. Buyers pay the fee on top of the price of LME copper for immediate delivery.
The gain is driving shares of mining companies. Freeport- McMoRan climbed 38 percent in New York trading this year, beating the 9.7 percent gain the S&P 500 Index.
Demand may also be boosted if JPMorgan, BlackRock Inc. and ETF Securities Ltd. start exchange-traded products backed by the metal. Such funds could hold as much as 250,000 tons, Aurubis said in a report Nov. 15. Similar products backed by gold accumulated 2,098 tons since they started in 2003, equal to nine years of U.S. mine output.
"The real story is metals and we've dubbed this the metals decade," Mari Kooi, chief executive officer of Wolf Asset Management International LLC, said at the Bloomberg Link Hedge Fund and Investor Briefing in New York on Dec. 2. "What we have is a set up of shortages in the metals."
Goldman ser følgende ved slutten av 2011:
Olje: $105 pr fat
Gull: $1690 pr oz
Goldman Sachs 2011 Forecast: Stocks, Gold, Oil Higher
Dec. 6, 2010
Endret 07.12.2010 20:54 av OldNick
|Tight Supply/Demand Picture Leaves Analysts, Investors Bullish On Copper
Allen Sykora, Of Kitco News (http://www.kitco.com/)
Dec. 17, 2010
(Kitco News) - Copper's supply/demand picture may become so tight that many analysts and institutional investors say it is one of the commodities on which they are the most bullish for 2011.
Copper has already staged an impressive rally from the commodity-wide sell-off that occurred when the global financial crisis hit in 2008. While Western economies were weak, copper demand remained strong in emerging economies such as China, the world's largest consumer of the metal. Whenever recovery picks up in the West, demand should rise further.
Meanwhile, analysts say, mining companies will not be able to ramp up output fast enough to keep up with demand, leaving a global supply/demand deficit for 2011.
"It's our top commodity pick for next year," said Bart Melek, global commodity strategist with BMO Capital Markets.
The same was true for many institutional investors surveyed by Barclays Capital during an investor conference in December. More than 300 participants were asked to rate which commodity or sector will perform best in 2011, and copper got the highest rating with 26%, followed by grains at 23% and crude oil at 19%.
Analysts have been releasing commodity forecasts for 2011 this month, and Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Capital are among those listing copper as one of the markets they expect to fare best.
"We expect to see pretty tight market conditions for copper next year," Melek said. "The crux of the story is that we are expecting supply to be outstripped by demand growth."
BMO projects a 2011 copper deficit of around 380,000 metric tons. Standard Bank analyst Leon Westgate looks for a deficit of 385,000 metric tons, widening to 562,000 in 2012.
"I think the real tightness in the market is going to come in 2012," Westgate said. "While I'm bullish next year, I'm super bullish for 2012."
BNP Paribas analyst Stephen Briggs looks for a supply deficit of 200,000 metric tons this year, widening to 500,000 in 2011.
Analysts often measure tightness by looking at the how many weeks current inventories will last, based on global consumption. For 2011, this is likely to fall to around 2.2 weeks, comparable to the 2006-2008 period, Westgate said. But then in 2012, he looks for a further drop to 0.7 week.
A recent Morgan Stanley report said the stocks-to-consumption ratio fell to 3.4 weeks at the end of the third quarter. This was a "remarkable" given below-par growth in developed nations, plus risks to emerging-market growth arising from inflation, Morgan Stanley said.
There is a wide range of price forecasts. Morgan Stanley looks for average of $7,900 a metric ton in 2011, up from $7,300 for 2010 although down from current levels. VM Group lists an average of $8,833 but a three-month target of $9,100 and a 12-month target of $8,500. VM Group looks for prices to top $10,000, but with volatility and potential for a correction if Chinese authorities are aggressive reining in money supply.
Citi also expects copper to hit $10,000 in the next to 12 months. Barclays looks for copper average $9,950 in the third quarter alone. Goldman Sachs looks for LME copper to hit $11,000 a ton in 12 months.
Global Recovery Driving Demand While Constraints Limit Supply
Copper demand should be driven by a continuing global economic recovery, Melek said. In particular, an improving auto sector likely will consume more copper, while China will also need more metal to keep building its power and other infrastructure.
Also, there is potential for physically exchange-traded funds in base metals to take still more copper off of the market. ETF Securities launched an ETF on Dec. 10, and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and BlackRock Asset Management International are also looking to launch
Endret 21.12.2010 00:31 av OldNick
Some analysts wonder if base-metals ETFs will become as popular as those in precious metals.
"We have our doubts about the attractiveness of these investment products, but so tight is the copper market likely to become that even modest tonnages risk material being bid away from consumers," Briggs said.
Meanwhile, a number of factors are limiting the ability of mining companies to hike production.
For starters, there were relatively few mine cutbacks in 2008-09, meaning little in the way of restarts, Briggs said. Where cutbacks did occur, miners have been slow to reverse them, he said.
Ore grades are declining at aging mines, Briggs and Melek said. For instance, in late summer, controlling owner BHP Billiton reported that production at the Chile's Escondida mine, the largest in the world, will fall as much as 10% by the middle of next year due to lower ore grades.
There have been limited major discoveries and developments in recent years, analysts said. Furthermore, some of the potential new operations are in regions of the world with high geopolitical risk, which makes companies cautious about investment, Melek said.
"The difference in copper, compared to a lot of other commodities, is the supply side really is extraordinarily tight," said Kevin Norrish, managing director of commodities research. "The problem for copper is there just aren't lots of large projects out there in the way that perhaps there were 10 or 15 years ago. It's becoming very difficult to grow supply."
Prices above $10,000 could make some projects feasible, whereas maybe they would not be at $7,000 or $8,000, Norrish said. "But it will take time to get those up and running," he said.
Analysts with Goldman Sachs, in a research report, said base metals such as copper are even closer to a "structural bull market" than oil because of supply issues. In the case of crude, declining inventories and rising prices may be followed by OPEC producing from spare capacity. But for many base metals, producers are already at full capacity and existing inventories are the only "spare," Goldman said.
In fact, Goldman said, nearly all exchange inventories may be exhausted over the course of 2011, forcing the market into demand rationing.
"We are expecting copper stocks to fall to the lowest that they've ever been," Norrish said.
|Er det noen her som har investert i Nordic Mining?
|Kommende gruveeventyr i gammel gruvekommune : http://www.an.no/indresalten/article5491916.ece
|EU har fått utarbeidet en analyse av ressurs situasjonen for kritiske materialer for nye energiteknologier.
Announcement: New report on Critical Metals in Strategic Energy Technologies
Rapport (164s. PDF)
Due to the rapid growth in demand for certain materials, compounded by political risks associated with the geographical concentration of the supply of them, a shortage of these materials could be a potential bottleneck to the deployment of low carbon energy technologies.
In order to assess whether such shortages could jeopardise the objectives of the EU's Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET Plan), an improved understanding of these risks is vital.
In particular, this report examines the use of metals in the six low carbon energy technologies of SET Plan, namely:
- carbon capture and storage (CCS) and
- electricity grids.
The study look at the average annual demand for each metal for the deployment of the technologies in Europe between 2020 and 2030.
The demand of each metal is compared to the respective global production volume in 2010. This ratio (expressed as a percentage) allows comparing the relative stress that the deployment of the six technologies in Europe is expected to create on the global supplies for these different metals.
The study identifies 14 metals for which the deployment of the six technologies will require 1% or more (and in some cases, much more) of current world supply per annum between 2020 and 2030.
These 14 metals, in order of decreasing demand, are
- niobium and
The metals are examined further in terms of the risks of meeting the anticipated demand by analysing in detail the likelihood of rapid future global demand growth, limitations to expanding supply in the short to medium term, and the concentration of supply and political risks associated with key suppliers.
The report pinpoints 5 of the 14 metals to be at high risk, namely:
- the rare earth metals neodymium and dysprosium,
- and the by products from the processing of other metals) indium, tellurium and gallium.
The report explores a set of potential mitigation strategies, ranging from expanding European output, increasing recycling and reuse to reducing waste and finding substitutes for these metals in their main applications. A number of recommendations are provided.
|Ernst & Young: Bulk of post-crisis equity to flow to junior miners
at Mines and Money conference, London
by Michelle Madsen
Dec. 6, 2011
Junior miners will be in line for the bulk of equity available to mining companies when the economic crisis finally eases, according to Ernst & Young. "We expect to see a greater proportion of equity reach the pre-production end of the market," Ernst and Young's global mining and metals advisory services leader Lee Downham told delegates at the Mines and Money conference in London on December 6.
Fundraising has become increasingly difficult for small cap miners, Downham said, highlighting the low levels of initial public offering (IPO) activity in 2011 after Glencore listed on the London Stock Exchange in May.
"Glencore was clearly the standout IPO of the year," he said. "It would be interesting to see if all that money would have gone to other miners if Glencore had not listed."
Despite the severity of the European sovereign debt crisis and widespread economic uncertainty across the globe, Downham said equity would not be needed by the mining majors in the same way it was in 2009, after the financial crisis of the preceding year.
"We wouldn't expect the same decline as we saw in 2009," said Downham. "I'm not suggesting we'll enter another financial crisis, but it's reassuring to see that [...] the majors Vale, BHP, Rio Tinto [and] Xstrata won't need to call for equity should we suffer a decline in economic conditions."
Engaging is 'key to surviving resource nationalism'
at Mines and Money conference, London
Dec. 6, 2011
London - The key to navigating the pitfalls associated with resource nationalism in resource-rich countries is to forge relationships and engage with governments and state mining companies, according to Brian Menell, founder of South African mining and industrial conglomerate Anglovaal Group.
"We need to engage not so much through persuasion as to offer and provide resources and experience," Menell said at the Mines and Money conference in London on December 6.
"Unfortunately or fortunately, the degree to which we as mining companies derive benefits is through driving personal relationships. We need to take a step back and focus more time and effort on that," he said.
Legislation arising from increasing resource nationalism - for example, in developed economies such as those of Canada and Australia - may hold potential benefits as well as burdens for mining companies, he added.
The phenomenon is growing globally, and is likely to continue to do so in the long term, as democratisation spreads and governments look to derive value from the mining industry in increasingly uncertain economic times.
Opportunities to be exploited
In countries such as Zambia, Peru and Guinea, governments have introduced higher levels of taxation and imposed royalty requirements on mines in response to short-term fiscal stress, according to Menell - but this may present opportunities that can be exploited, he added.
"We are seeing increasingly assertive implementation of use-it-or-lose-it-type regulations. This is a constructive response to the dominance of short-term opportunistic investors," he said. "If these regulations are correctly and fairly administrated, I believe they are entirely positive for the industry as a whole, and should be encouraged."
There are, however, still hurdles to be overcome, he added, as countries as diverse as Canada, Venezuela and Russia are continuing to introduce legislation aimed at increasing local ownership of mining assets.
"Other than showing we are good and obedient corporate citizens, there's not much mining companies can do [about this]," Menell said.
"There are increasing demands across the mining industry to grow local beneficiation - for example, banning exports of unsmelted tin in Indonesia, which has created a local smelting industry," he said.
"This may b
|U.S. Department of Energy - Critical Materials Strategy
This report examines the role of rare earth metals and other materials in the clean energy economy. It was prepared by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) based on data collected and research performed during 2010.
Report 2010 (PDF)
Department of Energy Releases its 2011 Critical Materials Strategy
Dec. 22, 2011
The 2011 Critical Materials Strategy is DOE's second report on this topic and provides an update to last year's analysis. Using a methodology adapted from the National Academy of Sciences, the report includes criticality assessments for 16 elements based on their importance to clean energy and supply risk. The report is the product of extensive research and data collection by the Department over the last twelve months.
Report 2011 (PDF)
Analytikerestimater for internasjonale gruveselskap
Bill Matlack, Kitco, 29des2011
Endret 02.01.2012 19:18 av OldNick
|Quote: "Put simply, many businesses now recognise that we are living beyond the planet's means.
Rare Earth Metals Scarcity: A 'Ticking Time Bomb' for the World?, Asks PwC
PwC press release
Seven core manufacturing industries could be seriously affected by a shortage of minerals and metals, which could disrupt entire supply chains and economies, according to new PwC research.
PwC surveyed some of the largest manufacturing businesses across manufacturing, chemicals, automotive, energy/renewable energy, aviation, metals, infrastructure and high-tech hardware to see what impact such a scarcity would have, and where, over the next five years.
Of these, business leaders in automotive, chemicals, and energy sectors fear they will be hit hardest according to ,b.PwC's Minerals and metals scarcity in manufacturing: A 'ticking time bomb', report.
PwC's global sustainability leader, Malcolm Preston, said:
"Put simply, many businesses now recognise that we are living beyond the planet's means. New business models will be fundamental to the ability to respond appropriately to the risks and opportunities posed by the scarcity of minerals and metals."
The report's main author, Hans Schoolderman of PwC Netherlands, added:
"The world's growing population, an increase in GDP levels and changing lifestyles are causing consumption levels to rise globally - creating a higher and higher demand for resources. Governments and companies should all be aware of the scope, importance and urgency of the scarcity of both renewable and non-renewable natural resources: energy, water, land and minerals."
Among the minerals & metals on the 'critical' list are:
* Beryllium: used as a lightweight component in military equipment and in the aerospace industry. it is used in high-speed aircraft, missiles, space vehicles and communication satellites.
* Cobalt: a material used in industrial manufacturing. Used in jet turbine engines and automotive rechargeable batteries.
* Tantalum: used in mobile phones, computers and automotive electronics
* Flurospar: used in construction, cement, glass, iron and steel castings.
* Lithium: used in wind turbines and lithium-ion batteries in hybrid cars
Elsewhere in the survey, 77% of major manufacturing companies consider minerals and metals scarcity as an important issue for their business, but are concerned that only 39% of their customers do. Chemicals and energy and utilities sectors believe they will be severely impacted until 2016 with the percentage of chemical businesses that expect to be affected by this scarcity will TRIPLE over the next five years.
Endret 04.01.2012 21:06 av OldNick
|Instability of supply
The risk of scarcity across all sectors is expected to rise significantly, leading to supply instability and potential disruptions in the next five years, but this will also create opportunities for competitive advantage, the report says. The survey shows that whilst 80% of automotive respondents are currently worried about reserves running out, only 33% in aviation are, for example.
Renewable energy (78%), automotive (64%) and energy & utilities (57%) are all currently experiencing instability of supply. Aviation, high tech and infrastructure sectors are also expecting to experience high rises in supply disruption from now to 2016.
When asked about other primary concerns around scarcity overall, 84% cited an increase in demand, 78% said it was geopolitics, and 72% said extraction shortage. The report also indicated that European companies were better prepared with policies and programmes in place to mitigate risks.
PwC's global sustainability leader, Malcolm Preston, said:
"With the need for new business models, a key challenge for business is how to draw the line between collaboration and competitive advantage. This is where strategic decision making meets sustainability. Getting this right will define the winners and losers of the future."
A 'top 10' checklist for businesses on how to identify and prevent resource scarcity is in the report which also includes advice around creating risk assessments for three main areas, geopolitical, economic and physical.
Notes to Editor
69 executives from seven different industries, across three continents, Asia Pacific, the Americas and Europe were surveyed. The majority of companies are key players globally, with revenues of over $10 billion.
PwC Press statement (PDF)
Report 'Minerals and metals scarcity in manufacturing: the ticking time bomb' (PDF)
|Leder i Metal Bulletin Weekly 9-13 jan
China's shift to two-tier quota system shows how much it values heavy rare earths
China's recent decision to distinguish between light and heavy rare earths in its export quotas is of greater long-term significance than the headline increase in quota volumes for 2012.
China's ministry of commerce set the overall quota for the first half at 24,904 tonnes, and - for the first time - issued provisional guidance for full-year allocations of 31,130 tonnes, up 3% from last year, easing any immediate concerns about supply.
Under the new two-tier system, full-year heavy rare earth exports are likely to total about 4,050 tonnes, or 13% of the total.
The ministry's decision last month to increase overall export volumes was made to "guarantee international market demand and keep rare earth supplies basically stable".
This concession to the international market was interpreted by some as a victory for national governments, which have been pressing China to relax its export restrictions over recent months.
But the new two-tier system may bring less relief to end-users of heavy rare earths, particularly over the longer term.
China sets a precedent for greater control...
While demand is currently slack, the ministry of commerce has now set a precedent to tweak exports of these scarcer and more valuable rare earths in a more targeted fashion, in a move that may hurt global buyers as economies recover and China's domestic demand rises.
Over the longer term, China's burgeoning domestic demand for heavy rare earths may progressively erode supply to the international market, particularly as the country forges ahead with large-scale green energy projects as demanded by its latest five-year plan.
"I believe the heavy rare earth quota is enough, but it may not be. If it is not enough, I am afraid that Japanese magnet producers, such as Showa Denko and Hitachi, will be forced to produce magnet alloys and magnets in China," an analyst in Japan told Metal Bulletin last week.
...so it can seek value-added advantages
Industry analysts have often cited China's ambition to manufacture more value-added rare earth products as one of the driving forces behind its decision to limit rare earth supply outside the country.
Technological joint ventures with Japanese magnet makers and the like may be delayed while international supply is sufficient and global demand remains slack.
Nevertheless, the move to a new two-tier system should clearly signal that China, like the rest of the world, views its heavy rare earths as material of particular strategic importance.
In the medium term, new mining output outside of China will create a healthy surplus of light rare earths, but China will still be the world's largest producer of heavy rare earths.
The new two-tier quota system will only strengthen its ability to manage the supply, and price, of these critical metals in years ahead.
Endret 13.01.2012 15:23 av OldNick
|Junior har ikke vært stedet å være i det siste.
Vil det bli bedre fremover?
Sikkert ikke så ille, men ingen oppgang i sikte for dem ennå, bort fra som alltid - spesielle case, som har en gruveforelkomst med medverdier som skal komme frem i lyset fremover.
Junior miners lost nearly a third of their value in Q2, E&Y says
Aug. 7, 2012
Junior miners listed on London's Alternative Investment Market (AIM) lost 31% of their value in the second quarter of 2012, advisory firm Ernst and Young (E&Y) has said.
The year so far has been "incredibly tough" for financing within the junior mining sector, E&Y said, and the decline also reflects the sector's lacklustre performance in the first quarter.
The 31% decline in the firm's Mining Eye index over the three months ended June 30 was more than double the losses suffered by the AIM all-share index.
|Mining M&A activity down in Q2 - PwC
Aug. 9, 2012
The volume and values of merger and acquisition deals dropped during the second quarter of 2012, following the downward trend in metals prices, PricewaterhouseCoopers' (PwC) metals team said in a report.
There were 35 deals during the period, valued at a total of $18.55 billion, PwC said in its second quarter mining and metals M&A analysis. Nearly half of these were in China.
Asia and Oceania continued to drive local transaction value and volume during the first half of the year, they added.
"This region could continue to drive local deal activity in 2012, given that China is both the world's largest steel producer and its largest steel consumer," PwC said.
India has also had high levels of activity so far this year, including four local transactions and one cross-border deal, the team said.
"We should also note that Asia's emerging markets are relatively fragmented, which contributes to consolidation within the region," they added.
Western Europe, however, did not generate any deals with a value of $50 million or more during the three months ended June 30.
The continent was the primary driver for outbound deals during the first half, with three deals valued at a total of $2.3 billion, but these deals all happened in the first quarter.
In North America there were six local deals in the first six months of the year, and three of these were in the second quarter, valued at a total of $1 billion.
"It is likely that North American activity has been constrained recently for a number of reasons, including the relative maturity of the industry in the region and the economic uncertainty," PwC said.
"However, the dollar has been rising in value recently, particularly against the euro. If this improvement continues, US acquirers may be able to pursue relatively cheap acquisitions in the near future."
Commodities pricing is still a concern, the team said, as prices for base metals are expected to keep falling for the rest of 2012.
"If current levels of M&A activity continue through the end of 2012, the sector could experience a year-over-year decline of nearly 20% in deal value," PwC said.
"Unless and until prices and demand improve, the deal environment is likely to remain constrained."
Moreover, the outlook for the global economy has continued to deteriorate, particularly in the eurozone and the US, and the emerging markets are also seeing slower growth, they added.
Over the past year, meanwhile, liquidity has remained strong and there has been an increase in cash balances, while debt-to-equity levels have fallen.
"Normally, this augurs well for future deals, because it indicates that potential acquirers are becoming better capitalised over the long term," PwC said.
"However, given the current environment, it appears that metals players are waiting to see an improvement in pricing, demand, or both."
European activity has been much quieter overall, they added, and has been held back by the economic uncertainty in the UK and the eurozone, as well as the unresolved sovereign debt problems across the continent.
Based on the negative deal environment in the second quarter, the outlook for the near term continues to be uncertain, they said.
"A number of issues may cause investors to postpone deals as they wait for conditions to improve," PwC said.
This includes the falling metals prices on the London Metal Exchange, which have yet to return to higher levels seen at the beginning of the year.
"The average London Metal Exchange aluminium cash price for June fell almost 6%, and since January the monthly average prices are down more than 12%," the metals team said.
|NGU har oppdatert sin database over viktige metall-forekomster i Norge
Metallmilliarder i bakken
Metallene i bakken i godt dokumenterte forekomster i Norge er verdsatt til 1388 milliarder kroner
Gudmund Løvø, NGU
26. september 2012
Beregningene er basert på kjente metallforekomster av nasjonal betydning og knyttet til prisene på verdens metallbørser i april 2012.
Det har lenge vært et ønske fra myndigheter på flere nivå om en mer nøyaktig vurdering av verdien på norske mineralforekomster. Nå foreligger rapporten fra Norges geologiske undersøkelse (NGU).
NGU-rapporten har tatt for seg kjente metallforekomster i Norge og beregnet verdien "in situ", altså der de ligger i berget.
Undersøkelsene har tatt hensyn til kvalitet og mengde av viktige forekomster med økonomisk interessante metaller. Beregningene er basert på prisene ved verdens metallbørser i april i år.
Oversikten viser at jern- og titanmalmer alene har en verdi på 1224 milliarder kroner med Sydvaranger Gruve og Rana Gruber som norske malmlokomotiv.
Forekomster av kobber knyttet til edelt metall er beregnet til 25 milliarder kroner. Her ligger de største kjente verdiene i Nussir-forekomsten i Kvalsund kommune i Finnmark, i tillegg til kobber-gull-mineraliseringen i Biddjovagge i Kautokeino.
Basemetaller, som blant annet kobber, sink, bly og nikkel, er prisvurdert til 117 milliarder kroner, spredt over en lang rekke forekomster i Norge.
En gruppe spesialmetaller; niob, cerium, lantan, yttrium, neodym og beryllium, er i den nye rapporten prisfastsatt til 22 milliarder kroner.
- Vi har ikke vurdert verdien av mulige forekomster som kan finnes på større dyp i historiske malmfelt, ei heller av flere store forekomster som er kjent, men ikke godt nok dokumentert når det gjelder tonnasje og gehalter.
- Trolig er det et betydelig potensial her, sier seniorforsker Ron Boyd ved NGU.
Han påpeker at verdiene som kan realiseres i en framtidig gruvedrift i de enkelte forekomster avhenger av både driftsforhold, oppredningsteknologi og framtidige prisvariasjoner.
Boyd mener at rapporten ikke inneholder store overraskelser, men han ønsker likevel at rapporten blir revidert med jevne mellomrom for å sikre en oppdatert dokumentasjon av både kjente forekomster og nye funn. På den måten blir også virkningen av endringene i metallpriser kartlagt.
- I løpet av høsten kommer vi med en rapport om verdier av industrimineralforekomster. Det gjelder blant annet kalkstein, olivin, nefelinsyenitt, kvarts og dolomitt. Også her snakker vi om betydelige beløp, fastslår Boyd.
Uttak av byggeråstoffer som grus og pukk, utvinning av kull på Svalbard, samt natursteinproduksjon av for eksempel eksportsuksessen larvikitt, blir omtalt i andre rapporter i løpet av året.
Den norske bergindustrien solgte i fjor 94 millioner tonn mineralske råstoffer til en samlet verdi av 12,4 milliarder kroner.
Senere i høst legger vi fram tilsvarende verdivurderinger for industrimineraler, som kalkstein, olivin og kvarts, og for byggeråstoffer og naturstein.
- Tallene her er også betydelige, fastslår Boyd.
NGU-rapporten er åpen:
Boyd m.fl.: Mineral- og metallressurser i Norge: "In situ" verdi av metallforekomster av nasjonal betydning (pdf), NGU-rapport nr. 2012.048
Endret 26.09.2012 19:10 av OldNick
Her er en gruppe som har studert om det blir restriksjoner på tilgangen til ingrdiensene (fødematerialene) til stålindustrien i fremtiden.
Metal Bulleting: Assessing raw material risks (PDF)
8 Oct. 2012
A team at the Technical University of Berlin has developed a model to make more realistic assessments of raw material availability risks.
When the research sponsors, Oryx Stainless, brought the team together to discuss their results with industry and trade representatives in mid-September,
Richard Barrett accepted an invitation to participate and summarise key factors debated.
Utdrag av konklusjoen:
Oryx CFO Roland Mauss imagines that, 20 years hence, there could effectively be two markets for commodities: "One for those who have done their research, assessed their vulnerability, and then taken strategic measures to defend their production and secure access to sufficient raw materials for the future, and another for those who expose themselves to the 'last resort price' of the spot market, placing them at a competitive disadvantage."
Finkbeiner stresses that large manufacturers are also assessing their vulnerability to future raw material shortages, so it is in the interest of steel and metal producers to be well informed when their customers turn to them for indications of how the risks associated with their products compare with those for other finished materials.
Det interessante er kanskje ikke den omtalte studien, men det faktum at den er gjennomført. Ressurstilgang vil bli den store krisen i dette århundret (og videre utover), ikke klima og andre tulle-forestillinger som politikerne finner det for godt "å fore" almuen med.
Endret 12.11.2012 10:32 av OldNick
Ref.: "there could effectively be two markets for commodities: "One for those who have done their research, assessed their vulnerability, and then taken strategic measures to defend their production and secure access to sufficient raw materials for the future, and another for those who expose themselves to the 'last resort price' of the spot market, placing them at a competitive disadvantage."
Dette har vi allerede sett med REE (Rare Earth Elements), hvor Kina med sin langsiktige tilnærming har sikret seg langt over 90% av verdens produksjon, og også kontrollerer både prisene og tilgangen på de for store deler av high tech-industrien helt nødvendige elementene, mens "Vesten" og resten av verden løper etter og lurer på hva som skjedde...
China's Rare Earth Metals Monopoly Needn't Put An Electronics Stranglehold On America. Forbes 4/15/2012
"China presently produces more than 95% of all rare earth materials that are vital in the creation of a big variety of electronic technologies including lithium car batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, flat-screen television, compact fluorescent light bulbs, petroleum-to-gasoline catalytic cracking, and military defense components such as missile guidance systems. It also dominates abilities to process them.
This enables it to attract product manufactures to operate there as a condition of doing business, ration exports to maximize prices, and punish nations that don't go along with its policy interests through supply embargoes. Beijing reduced rare earth shipments by 9% in 2010 over 2009, and has recently announced plans to reduce exports by another 35%.
(Artikkelen fortsetter, og viser også til flere tiltak som forhåpentligvis skal bidra til å redusere avhengigheten av Kinas forgodtbefinnende)
|riktig det, Renud.
REE er kanskje det beste eksemplet, men de gjør det og har gjort det i industri etter industri. De vil kontrollere så mye av produksjonskjeden som mulig.
Om de er fattige på mange ressurser, bygger de seg opp nedstrøms, og oppstrøms går de inn med investeringer og gode avtaler i fattige u-land med gode naturressurser for å lokke inne leveringsavtaler til China eller gjennom kanaler de kan kontrollere.
Innenfor metaller/mineraler er Mg, Al, stål andre gode eksempler.
Idag ble fusjonen mellom Glencore International og Xstrata vedtatt i respektive generalforsamlinger.
Noe dramatikk var det nok for Xstrata og Xstrata's styre og toppledelse, da fusjonsforslaget med en bonuspakke på ca. £140m til toppledelsen i holdingselskapet og de ulike divisjonene ble nedstemt.
Et sterkt signal fra Xstrata's aksjonærer, men ikke veldig uventet for de som har fulgt med i all turbulensen rundt disse avtalene.
Xstrata Holders Vote for Glencore Offer Excluding Bonuses
By Jesse Riseborough, Firat Kayakiran and Leigh Baldwin
Nov. 20, 2012
Glencore (GLEN) International Plc's $31 billion takeover of Xstrata Plc (XTA) was approved by investors, leaving clearance by regulators in Europe and China as the remaining hurdles for this year's biggest deal.
Shareholders voted in favor of a resolution to approve Glencore's offer without retention payments for about 70 Xstrata managers and then rejected the bonus packages in a separate ballot, ensuring the deal proceeds, Xstrata said in a statement today.
The votes remove an obstacle to Glencore Chief Executive Officer Ivan Glasenberg's plan to create the world's fourth- largest mining company by adding Xstrata's coal, nickel, zinc and copper operations to his cotton-to-crude-oil commodities trading empire. While the European Commission is due to rule on the deal within the next two days, this isn't expected to be a major stumbling block, Liberum Capital Ltd. analysts said.
Investors in Glencore, which already owns 34 percent of Xstrata, voted 99.4 percent in favor of the deal earlier today.
Glencore sweetened its all-stock offer in September to 3.05 shares for each one in Xstrata to win support from Qatar Holding LLC, the nation's sovereign wealth fund and holder of a 12 percent stake in the world's largest exporter of power-station coal. Qatar Holding said last week it would vote in favor of the two resolutions on the transaction, while abstaining from giving its view on the bonuses.
Xstrata shareholders voted 67.85 percent in favor of a first resolution, which included the incentive package, falling short of the required 75 percent, the mining company said. A second poll in favor of the deal without incentives was agreed by 78.88 percent of shareholder votes. Shareholders voted 78.43 percent against the retention bonuses, according to the statement.
Glencore Xstrata International Plc, the new name for the company approved by shareholders today, will have interests in about 35 coal mines in Colombia, Africa and Australia, and account for about 10 percent of global seaborne exports of the fuel.
It will be the world's third-biggest producer of mined copper, the largest zinc miner, and the biggest exporter of coal burned by power stations. The combined group will have about 11 percent of the 13 million-ton global zinc market and about 40 percent of the 1.9 million tons of the metal produced in Europe.
|Norges Naturvitenskapelige Universitet (NTNU), Nordic Mining gjennom
datterselskapet Nordic Ocean Resources og Statoil har inngått et
samarbeid om mineralressurser på havbunnen.
Partene har i dag inngått en avtale om et forprosjektet som skal
kartlegge status for kunnskap på området og etablere prioriterte
behovsområder for ny forskning og utvikling.
Prosjektet har som målsetning og øke kunnskapsnivået innen marine
mineralressurser og vil fokusere på kartlegging av eksisterende kunnskap
på området, undersøkelsesmetoder, samt fremtidige satsningsområder.
Prosjektet vil vare i ett år og vil i hovedsak bli utført av Institutt
for geologi- og bergteknikk og Institutt for marin teknikk ved NTNU.
Prosjektet har en samlet kostnadsramme på NOK 2 millioner. Som en del av
prosjektet vil NORA finansiere en Professor II stilling innen marine
mineralressurser ved NTNU.
"Norge er verdensledende på undervannsteknologi etter 40 år med olje-og
gassvirksomhet i noen av verdens mest værharde havområder, og oppbygging
av norsk kompetanse har vært et viktig element i norsk
petroleumspolitikk. Norge har i dag en velutviklet og internasjonalt
konkurransedyktig petroleumsindustri. Samarbeidsprosjektet vil kunne
være starten til utvikling av flere teknologiske nyvinninger med
utgangspunkt i norske kunnskapsmiljøer", sier dekanus Ingvald Strømmen
"NORAs strategi er å samarbeide med andre for å se på felles
muligheter", sier daglig leder i NORA, professor Fredrik Søreide. "Norge
har både kunnskap og muligheter. Etter kontinentalsokkelutvidelsen i
2009 har Norge store havbunnsområder som det er naturlig å undersøke om
inneholder drivverdige mineral- og metallforekomster av f.eks. kobber,
gull, sølv og kobolt."
Arbeidet er i en tidlig fase og mye forskning og kunnskapsinnhenting
gjenstår før man kan si noe konkret om potensialet i norske
Men, realiteten er at det vi i beste fall ta 10-talls år før vi ser kommersiell gruvedrift på norsk sokkel, om de da ikke skulle finne noen spesielle forekomster med edle (les: verdifulle) metaller/mineraler i høye konsentrasjoner på veldig grundt dyp.
Det er fortsatt alt for mye ressurser på land som nesten alltid vil være billigere å ta ut enn fra havet.
Dette sagt, det er betydelig interesse fra "Asiatiske tigre" for å kartlegge havbunnen og se om det finnes ressurser som kan utvinnes.
For 40 år siden var Mn-noduler i søkelyset, de finnes det nesten uendelige mengder av på store havdyp. Imidlertid finnes det fortsatt altfor mye tilgjengelige av såkalte laterittiske ressurser tilgengelig i tropiske områder hvor mange av de samme metallene kan utvinnes fra. Mn-noduler kan dessverre ikke konkurrere økonomisk med disse (er min oppfatning).
Men, også Mn-noduler studeres det ivrig på nå.
Men, vi ser også aktivitet mot magmatiske forekomster, hvor kanskje australske Nautilus Minerals (NUS.TO) er det mest kjente leteselskapet (det finens også andre). Aksjekursutviklingen forteller deg at markedet blir mer og mer skeptisk til selskapets suksess.
China Cuts Rare Earth Mining Rights by Half to Aid Consolidation
By Bloomberg News
Jul. 16, 2012
Her er en analytiker som faktisk mener China får et oppsving til neste år, som derfor skal slå ut i en miniboom for råvarer.
Best Metals Forecaster Smirk Sees China Recovering: Commodities
By Phoebe Sedgman and Chanyaporn Chanjaroen, Bloomberg
Nov. 15, 2012
Industrial metals will rally through the middle of next year as the economy strengthens in China, the biggest user of everything from aluminum to zinc, according to the most accurate price forecaster tracked by Bloomberg.
Justin Smirk of Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) in Sydney beat as many as 25 others in predicting metals for two consecutive quarters on a rolling two-year basis, data compiled by Bloomberg Rankings show. He expects copper, nickel and zinc to gain through June and forecasts a 22 percent rise in aluminum.
China will accelerate through the end of September after slowing for seven consecutive quarters, the median of economists' estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. That's boosting prospects for demand as policy makers from Europe to the U.S. to Japan pledge more action to bolster growth. Smirk, 47, says he focuses primarily on economic cycles, central banks and financial markets to make his commodity predictions.
"We do see this point in time as perhaps the worst for the growth cycle," said Smirk, who has worked at Australia's second-largest lender by assets since 1999. "Commodity prices should be moving stronger through this year and into next."
Smirk's average margin of error in the most recent rolling eight-quarter period was 7.4 percent, Bloomberg Rankings data show. That compares with 11.7 percent for his nearest rival, Bart Melek of TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. Prices are often volatile, with nickel surging as much as 24 percent after plunging 31 percent this year.
Aluminum will advance to $2,380 a metric ton by June because of China's recovery and central-bank actions in Europe and the U.S., Smirk said. That will boost energy prices, which account for about 40 percent of smelters' production costs. Nickel, used in stainless steel, will climb 15 percent to $18,500 a ton, as copper rallies as much as 12 percent to $8,500 a ton and zinc gains 8.6 percent to $2,100 a ton, he says.
Mer på link over
Endret 21.11.2012 10:08 av OldNick
|Nå er tiden kommet for å avskrive "gamle synder" for gigantene i gruveindustrien.
Synder som stort sett stammer fra tiden før finanskrisen, hvor euforien dominerte og forledet selv garvede ledere som tross alt hadde vært en god stund i gamet.
Noen selskap hadde ledere med kortere erfaring, men mange hadde fartstid fra 80- og 90-tallet, hvor industrien hadde vært i en slags depresjon som burde fortalt dem hvor lavt priser kunne gå og at de skulle se at det nærmet seg toppen og de burde sluttet å kjøpe opp juniors og mellomstore selskap til overpris. Vel, de mest "aggressive" må nå ta konsekvensen og forlate toppjobbene.
En følgekonsekvens av det som nå skjer, er at mørket igjen kan senke seg over junior mining sektoren (igjen), og det kan bli vanskelig å hente penger i markedet via aksjeemisjoner og evt. obligasjoner.
Metal Bulletin Comment: After the writedowns, miners enter an age of austerity
Mark Burton, Metal Bulletin
Feb. 15, 2013
What does Barrick Gold, the world's largest gold miner, have in common with Rio Tinto, the world's second-largest iron ore producer? Quite a lot, as it became clear this week.
On Thursday, Barrick posted a $3 billion loss for the fourth quarter, while while Rio recorded the same loss for the full year, as both suffered writedowns against mining assets they bought at the top of the market.
Rio Tinto's first ever full-year loss came shortly after it announced a $14.4 billion charge against its aluminium and coal businesses, while Barrick's $3.8 billion writedown of its Lumwana copper assets wiped out otherwise strong returns for the year.
With the benefit of hindsight, the valuations look hopelessly toppy, but few people called them that at the time.
Copper prices were just coming down from all-time highs of $10,100 per tonne as Barrick made its bid for Lumwana owner Equinox in April 2011; aluminium prices topped out above $3,200 per tonne a few months after Rio's $38 billion takeover of Alcan closed in November 2007.
Equinox was already struggling with Lumwana's costs at the time, but the mine economics made sense if one was to assume, as many did, that copper prices would hold at those levels.
And while the price tag for Alcan appears steep today, it is worth remembering that Alcoa was ready to pay $33 billion before Rio stepped in as a white-knight bidder.
It is also worth remembering that Rio and Barrick are not alone in facing writedowns: Vale has taken a $4.2 billion hit on its nickel and aluminium assets, while BHP Billiton is expected to make a multibillion-dollar impairment against its aluminium business when it posts full-year results later this month.
On Friday, Anglo American reported a full-year loss of $1.5 billion following a $4 billion writedown on its Minas Rio iron ore assets in Brazil.
And after the writedowns, divestments will follow, as both Barrick and Rio Tinto signalled on Thursday, using identical terminology.
Barrick is focused on 'disciplined capital allocation', while Rio Tinto pledged to reinforce 'capital allocation discipline'. Anglo used the same term on Friday as it sought to move on from its loss.
What this sterile phrase signals is that after years of massive spending chasing equally massive commodity returns, the mining industry is returning to an age of austerity.
Tom Albanese and Aaron Regent - who led Rio and Barrick during the age of abundance - have paid for their excesses with their jobs, as has Anglo chief Cynthia Carroll.
With their departures fresh in the mind, it is not surprising that Rio boss Sam Walsh and Barrick ceo Jamie Sokalsky echoed each other so closely in their pledges to live within their means.
Aside from returning cash to shareholders, capital allocation discipline will mean divesting
Endret 20.02.2013 08:58 av OldNick
|or mothballing all non-core production assets, while new projects are likely to be scaled back or scrapped altogether. As Sokalsky said on Thursday, as a policy the company will not be building any new large mines.
He calls this strategy a "new paradigm; a new way of running the business", but really there is nothing new in this approach: it is a natural and cyclical function in markets where supply responds to prices in an inelastic way.
Producer discipline is not new to the mining industry, and nor is the chronic underinvestment it inspires. But that's a discussion for a few years' time.
Nå har alle de 5 største gruveselskapene skiftet toppleder.
BHP var den siste, Vale (ikke nevnt i artikkelen under) den første (skiftet leder i mai 2011 etter sterkt press fra majoritets- og kontrollerende eier den Brasilianske regjeringen) etter finanskrisen.
Og skiftene (Xstrata unntatt, her var det et oppkjøp/fusjon som var hovedårsak) er gjort etter at de fleste av disse har gjort kjempebrølere, de fleste via oppkjøp av sterkt overprisede, mellomstore selskap innen ressurs-sektorene.
BHP Billiton's Kloppers to retire; Mackenzie to be ceo
February 20, 2013 - 08:25 GMT Location: New York
KEYWORDS: BHP Billiton , Marius Kloppers , retire , Andrew MacKenzie , Jac Nasser
Marius Kloppers will retire as ceo of BHP Billiton, the latest in a line of FTSE-listed mining firms to see a change at the helm. He will be succeeded by the company's non-ferrous head, Andrew Mackenzie.
Kloppers will leave his role on May 10 and retire fully from the group on October 1.
Kloppers leaves the firm "a safer and stronger company", BHP Billiton chairman Jac Nasser said.
"Marius was appointed ceo just prior to the global financial crisis. Despite an exceptionally difficult economic environment during his tenure, Marius and his team have delivered for shareholders, significantly outperforming our peers in terms of total shareholder returns," Nasser said. "He drove new investments into next-generation opportunities, including US onshore gas and liquids, and created one of the most valuable companies in the world."
The past several months have seen announcements of the planned departures of Rio Tinto ceo Tom Albanese, Xstrata ceo Mick Davies, and Anglo American ceo Cynthia Carroll.
Kloppers said that his decision to retire was a difficult one, and that finding the right time to leave "was never going to be easy".
"However, after almost 20 years with BHP Billiton, 12 as a senior executive and nearly six as ceo, I believe now is the right time to pass the leadership baton," he added.
Mackenzie, who joined London-based BHP Billiton in November 2008, has more than 30 years of experience in oil and gas, petrochemicals and minerals. He has held senior positions at London-based BP and Rio Tinto.
Endret 21.02.2013 09:54 av OldNick
|Ivan Glasenberg, en glitrende råvaretrader som snart sitter som leder for verdens 4de største gruveselskap (målt etter børsverdi) Glencore-Xstrata, gjorde iflg. mange tilhørere en bemerkelsesverdig opptreden på BMO's årlige metall- og gruve-konferanse i Florida for 2 uker siden.
Der overhøvlet han topplederne i alle sine største konkurrenter og anklaget dem for å ha overinvestert i nye gruveanlegg og smelteverk som har ført til overkapasitet og ødelagt avkastning for investorene i gruveselskapene.
Det er lett å være etterpåklok, men resultatet er til en viss grad slik han beskriver.
Et par-tre ting man kan fastslå dersom industrien tar Glasenberg's råd, er:
- Det kan få markedene rasker i balanse og holde prisene bedre oppe,
- dette kan gi oss en ny fase i supersykelen for råvarer, og ikke minst
- det lover dårlig for juniorselskapene i bransjen, kan det bli en ny "istid"?
Commodities 101, with Ivan Glasenberg
Metal Bulletin Weekly
Mar. 4, 2013
Glencore International's ceo Ivan Glasenberg launched a scathing attack on the records of the departing ceos of rival miners at a capital markets conference last week.
Glasenberg - who will take over as ceo of the combined Glencore-Xstrata entity when the deal is concluded, perhaps next month - lamented the "catastrophic" state of the mining business, which had collectively built too much new capacity, instead of keeping supply tight and margins higher for longer.
He hoped mining bosses had "[...] learned their lesson. They built, they didn't get returns for their shareholders. It's time to stop building," the executive was quoted by Bloomberg as telling delegates at the conference in Florida.
The comments come after Glencore's rivals - Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, and Anglo American - all recently switched their ceos, against a background of falling profitability and big writedowns.
Glasenberg has some tips for the new leaders: Sam Walsh at Rio, Andrew Mackenzie at BHP, and Mark Cutifani at Anglo.
Speaking just like the consummate trader he is, Glasenberg said: "What we've got to do, when the markets do get stronger, [is recognise there's] no need to keep building a new asset and let's keep the market tight for a while."
Glasenberg's trader strategies...
There are two main ways to look at this: on the one hand, perhaps miners could benefit by injecting some of the instincts of the trader. If miners were more used to seeking margins here and there, timing deals according to the ebb and flow of markets, perhaps they would be more disciplined in their approach to sustaining value.
They would be more alert to longer-term shifts in supply and demand, and more sensitive to the need for holding back to "keep it tight" and keep the buyers hungry.
On the other hand, Glencore's boss makes it all sound very simple but, well, isn't hindsight wonderful? It wasn't that long ago that miners were kicking themselves - and being kicked by investors - for being too slow to anticipate the explosive growth of Chinese demand.
...may not always ride the supercycle
Suddenly the buzzword for commodities investors was "supercycle". In such circumstances, when the quickest movers on supply are likely to reap the greatest benefit, which single miner is going to resist expansion?
It may sound neat to transfer the ethos of the canny trader to the whole commodities complex.
It's less easy to see how to put it into general practice in a competitive market. (Glasenberg himself dismissed any suggestion that his call to keep things tight could be seen as an attempt to reduce competition or as a call for an OPEC-style cartel.) Competitive markets are cyclical: periods of abundance and overinvestment are followed by periods of discipline and underinvestment.
Two weeks ago, Barrick Gold's ceo said his business had adopted a "new paradigm", in which no big new mines would be built, and cash would be conserved. We pointed out there was re
Endret 13.03.2013 01:02 av OldNick
|Dette er i hvert fall ubetinget godt nytt for både NOM-aksjonærer, og Norge som nasjon:
Giske legger fram Norges nye mineralstrategi i morgen (i dag),
som konkluderer med at sjødeponi ikke skal forbys og at det faktisk også er det beste alternativet.
Åpner for sjødeponi. 12.03.2013
Regjeringen kan gå med på at det etableres sjødeponi av gruveavfall.
Dette kommer fram i mineralstrategien som næringsminister Trond Giske legger fram onsdag.
- Regjeringen er åpen for at det kan være sjødeponi. Det er ikke hensiktsmessig med utsettelse i form av et moratorium, slik noen ønsker, sier Trond Giske til Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå (ANB).
Han sier det ikke er aktuelt å innføre forbud mot dumping av mineraler på sjøbunnen.
- Regjeringen har konkludert med at hvert enkelt prosjekt skal vurderes for seg på miljøfaglig grunnlag, sier næringsministeren.
Det er en kjent sak at SV har vært negativ til sjødeponier, men nå har altså regjeringen klart å konkludere i denne vanskelige saken.
|Hehe, du var litt snar med konklusjonen der, Renud.
Uansett, sentimentet innenfor mining og råvarer gjør at man bør sky junior mining selskaper, dersom det ikke er spesiellt unike assets de sitter på. De er lettest å finne innenfor oljen.
Ingen av de "norske" (såkalte) gruveselskapene har det, dessverre (etter min mening).
Kan kinesiske bankregler trigge en alvorlig korreksjon/"nedsmelting" innenfor råvarebransjene?
Denne artikkelen fra Business Insider/Reuters synes å indikere det.
Jeg må si jeg er usikker...
A Chinese Banking Regulator Could Be Behind The Trainwreck In Commodities
Mamta Badkar, BusinessInsider.com
Reuters - Last week, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) announced a crackdown on wealth management products (WMPs).
In a note today, David Lutz of Stifel Nicolaus writes that the selloff in commodities is because of a surge in the dollar, and in part because of this ruling to "remove leverage in the investment system."
Commodities "have been crushed" since the ruling he writes.
WMPs which are part of China's shadow banking sector had surged to 13 trillion yuan ($2.1 trillion) at the end of 2012, up 50 percent year-over-year. Even as traditional bank lending in China is slowing, non-bank lending has been picking up.
A lot of this non-bank lending is channeled towards the construction and property sector and also towards small and medium businesses (SMEs).
"Bottom line, it takes more leverage out of the system," David Lutz told Business Insider in an email. "It could even become destabilizing, if many projects were based on shadow financing, and the withdraw of those funds limits credit."
For commodities like gold however, he points to a bunch of other reasons including low inflation, concerns over gold demand in India, renewed optimism about the U.S. recovery, and ETF outflows, among other factors.
Business Insider's Matthew Boesler put together this chart that shows what a brutal first quarter commodities have had:
Endret 04.04.2013 19:18 av OldNick
|Lower equity prices could make miners attractive - Jefferies
June 5, 2013
Equities in the UK-listed mining sector could become more attractive from a value perspective after a long period of underperformance, analysts at Jefferies said in a note on Wednesday June 5.
"These equities have been affected by the relatively weak macro environment and negative sentiment towards the sector," they said.
"While we may not be in deep value territory yet, we foresee at least 15% upside to share prices of BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Glencore Xstrata and First Quantum over the next year."
After a longstanding bull market, the macro environment has been challenging for miners, according to the analysts, as slow global growth and an acceleration of supply growth of some key commodities led to a period of balanced markets and marginal cost-based commodity prices.
"High capex spending and lower commodity prices should imply limited free cash flow for the sector before 2015," they said.
"But share prices already reflect a weak outlook - while the consensus earnings downgrade cycle for the UK-listed miners has further to go, the sector has underperformed the broader equity markets over the past two years and is already discounting a weak fundamental outlook."
Even if commodity prices are not likely to be supportive for mining share prices in the near-term, they added, it is possible that some opportunities have emerged that could be significant for investors in the longer-term.
For example, price-to-book (PB) ratios at miners such as Anglo American, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are very low compared with historic levels.
"However, we would attribute these low PB ratios to a combination of lower returns on equity over the past two years and significant increases in book value over the past decade," the analysts added.
"We are therefore not convinced that these low PB ratios alone fully support the argument that these miners are trading at very inexpensive valuations."
Instead, they said, the PB ratios might be consistent with what the market should expect from a sector coming to the end of a prolonged bull market.
"We continue to recommend that investors buy shares of BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Glencore Xstrata and First Quantum," the analysts said.
"In the case of BHP and Rio, returns on equity should be reasonably high even in a lower commodity price environment, operating risk is low, geopolitical risk is low, and valuations are inexpensive."
In the case of Glencore Xstrata, they added, upside brought about by the merger, free cash flow growth, and dividend growth should be supportive of the share price.
Finally, First Quantum shareholders should see some benefit, as the company continues its programme of large organic growth in copper - one of the analysts' preferred commodities in the long-term.
"Unfortunately for the mining industry, [however], the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated for the sector over the past two years," the analysts said.
Chinese growth slowdown
"Chinese economic growth is decelerating as China's economy is on the verge of transitioning from an investment-driven to a consumer-driven model, and a still-sluggish US economic growth recovery is, perhaps by default, one of the most positive dynamics of the global economic landscape."
Furthermore, a wave of supply growth following major investment spending in new projects is finally emerging, and could lead to a long period of comfortably supplied markets.
In a balanced market, the analysts said, commodity prices ought to be a function of their marginal cost of production.
"Based on our analysis, most commodity markets have already balanced and prices for most commodities already reflect their marginal cost," they said.
Mer på link
Endret 07.06.2013 08:22 av OldNick
|Etterat Jefferies synset tidligere i Juni, har aksjekursene på miners generelt sinket betydelig (5-10%).
Har spådommen fortsatt gyldighet?
Jeg tror markedet fortsatt leter etter bunnen, og at det ikke haster å ta nye posisjoner.
Marc Rich, the controversial commodity trader, dies at the age of 79
It happened two weeksago, June 26, after he suffered a stroke in Switzerland.
Marc Rich has been honored for starting the spot marked in oil trading, thereby breaking 'the seven sisters' monopoly in the global oil market.
Marc Rich started his career as a trader at NY-firm Philipp Brothers, but broke with them to establish his own firm 'Marc Rich & Co' in Zug, Switzerland together with two PhilBro colleagues.
From this humble start, the company evolved into the behemot;
- GlencoreXstrata, the integrated, diverified mining company (4th in the mining sector after BHP, Vale and Rio Tinto)
Marc Rich sold his stake in the company to the management and fellow traders in 1993 (management buyout) after an big gamble in the Zn-market failed miserably. After Rich got out, Ivan Glasenberg was to become the driving force in Glencore's climb to the top of the commodity trading business, and he is now CEO of the combined entity GlencoreXstrata PLC.
A Google-search gives many hits
The best obituary I have seen (so far):
OBITUARY: Marc Rich, pioneer of modern commodity markets
June 28, 2013
According to stories from fellow business partners and others, Marc Rich was extremely secretive about his business. He never gave interviews. Until the swiss business journalist Daniel Ammann a few years ago got permission to interview him to write a kind of an official biography which ended up in the book: 'The King of Oil: The Secret Lives of Marc Rich' (2009, ISBN 0-312-57074-0).
For those of You who don't want to read the book, there's a good 45 min interview with the author by Jim Puplava at Financialsense.com, done July 1, 2010, where highlights of the book and Rich life are discussed.
Ammann's site: The King of Oil
UBS Rates Commodities 'Underweight' as Equities Seen Advancing
Maria Kolesnikova, Bloomberg
July 2, 2013
The commodity supercycle has ended and investors should reduce their holdings in raw materials, especially gold, and buy equities, UBS AG said.
Slow economic growth in the U.S. will boost equities more than commodities and reduced quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve will be negative for gold, Stephane Deo, a strategist at UBS in London, said in a report dated today. Industrial metals are rated "underweight" on increased supply and slower growth in top consumer China.
"Gold will continue to suffer," Deo said in the report. "After a stellar performance during the past decade, industrial metals have underperformed the stock market since the beginning of the current decade."
UBS joined banks from Citigroup Inc. to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. that have called an end to the commodities supercycle, or longer-than-average period of rising prices. The Standard & Poor's GSCI gauge of 24 raw materials fell 4.5 percent this year after almost quadrupling since 2001.
Endret 08.07.2013 12:13 av OldNick
|"Commodities are likely to generate positive returns if the cycle improves, but at a much lower rate than before," Deo said.
Mer på link
JPMorgan Turns Bullish On Commodities, Lukewarm On Gold
By Kitco News
July 2, 2013
For the first time in almost two years commodity analysts at JPMorgan have turned bullish on commodities and are now overweight the entire complex.
"In a number of commodities, prices have fallen far enough for long enough to force involuntary cuts in production and to spur fresh demand," the bank said in the report released Sunday. "Risk is now skewed toward demand growth surprise and production disappointment."
Although the firm's analysts do admit that downside risks remain high, their recommendation in the report has been very clear.
"Our analysis concludes that it is in the best interests of most commodity index investors to buy immediately," they said. "We would rather be premature in our pretend portfolio than you be late in your real portfolio."
The firm is slightly more bullish on energy commodities particularly oil than it is in precious and base metals - the analysts said in the report that their "overweight" view is based on the energy sector, "that dominates most indices."
The analysts laid out ten points to highlight their shift in sentiment:
- Seasonal factors will boost oil prices
- Fresh demand for storable commodities like gold and copper
- Involuntary production cuts due to the recent drop in prices
- Rising inflation in production costs, which they are expecting will filter through the economy
- Tight spare capacity and rising supply risks
- Lagging benefits from interest rate cuts and monetary stimulus measures
- A shift in U.S. export policies
- A shift in Chinese energy policies
- Adecoupling of the U.S. dollar with commodity prices
- A bottoming of global growth and inflation rates
Mer på link
|Som JPMorgan (i motsetning til Goldman Sachs og Citigroup) så tror heller ikke Societe Generale at råvare supersykelen er over enda.
Begrunnelsen er fortsatt urbanisering i "tidligere u-land" vil drive etterspørselen etter årvarer videre. Det er fortsatt mer enn nok potensielle middelklasse-mennesker som idag er blant de fattige, men som vil ha lyst og muligheter til å klatre på den økonomiske stigen.
SocGen Bearish on Gold Sees Commodity Super Cycle Persisting
Luzi Ann Javier, Bloomberg
July 8, 2013
Gold will probably extend its decline through 2014, even as the commodity super cycle that's brought longer-than-average rising prices may persist for a further two decades, according to Societe Generale SA.
Bullion may average $1,150 an ounce next year, said the head of commodities research, Michael Haigh, who in April correctly predicted the metal's rout. That would be the lowest annual average since 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Gold is heading for its first yearly loss since 2000 as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it may slow asset purchases this year if the economy continues to improve. While Societe Generale is bearish on bullion, it expects the decade-long bull market in commodities to extend for a further 15 to 20 years, driven by rapid urbanization and growing population in countries including China and India, said Haigh.
"It would take something dreadful to happen to make the super cycle suddenly end," said Haigh, citing risks including a sharp slowdown in China, a scenario the bank doesn't expect. "If you believe that the third super cycle is a function of population and urbanization, you're looking at another 15 to 20 years. But it's not going to be an upward price for all."
The previous generation-long cycles ran from 1870 to 1913 and from the end of World War II to the early 1970s, Haigh said. The third super cycle began around 2000, he said.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. forecast the end of the cycle after prices that more than doubled in 10 years spurred expansions at mines, farms and oil fields. The Standard & Poor's GSCI Spot Index (SPGSCI) of 24 raw materials lost 2 percent this year, while the MSCI All-Country World Index advanced 5.1 percent.
"Prices are going to generally drop down throughout the year," Haigh said at a media briefing in Singapore today. Producers may increase hedging, he said. "They'll start selling into the market, which puts more downward pressure on gold prices."
Goldman says bullion will reach $1,050 by the end of 2014 and Credit Suisse Group AG anticipates $1,150 in about 12 months. Danske Bank A/S (DANSKE), the most-accurate gold forecaster tracked by Bloomberg over the past two years, predicts $1,000 in three months. Banks from Morgan Stanley to BNP Paribas SA to UBS AG cut their forecasts last month.
Haigh uses an algorithm called the Principal Component Analysis model to help him predict prices.
A "hard-landing" in China to end the commodity super cycle would mean growth in gross domestic product decelerating to an annual 3 to 4 percent, he said. That has a probability of just 20 percent, he said.
China's GDP may have expanded 7.5 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 31 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg ahead of a July 15 release by the statistics bureau. That would be the slowest pace since the three months through September 2012.
Endret 12.07.2013 17:52 av OldNick
|Trenden i big mining har en tid vært: kostnadsredusjoner "for alle penga".
Og nå slipper heller ikke toppledelsen unna, som både får kuttet grunnlønn og bonus, og gjerne endring av bonusformel, som inkluderer mer insentiv for aksjonæravkastning (utbytte/kursstigning).
Det vil endre fokus på f.eks. "corprate governance", slik at kostnadene kan senkes - betydelig. Her er det mye å hente på kostnadssiden.
Mining Firms Cut Pay for Top Management
Rhiannon Hoyle, WSJ.com
July 11, 2013
Sydney - As cutbacks across the mining sector intensify, companies with operations from Brazil to Australia are taking aim at the compensation of their top brass.
Falling commodity prices and soaring costs of extracting raw materials such as coal and gold are shackling resource firms that until recently had been riding what Australian policy makers called a once-in-a-century mining boom. Over the past year, companies have been forced to make deep cuts, from slashing jobs and cutting spending on exploration for mineral deposits, to shutting the spigot on free coffee and snuffing out barbecues for staff.
Now, the ax is falling on wages of management and directors, underscoring how an industry that at its peak was paying truck drivers as much as US$200,000 a year is adjusting to weaker demand from China.
Mining companies have vowed to strip billions of dollars in costs from their operations as China, a top buyer of many commodities, attempts to control property speculation and cool its economy. Rio Tinto RIO.LN -1.32% PLC, the world's biggest producer of iron ore, wants to save more than US$5 billion through cost cutting by the end of next year.
In the boom times, cutting executive pay would have been unthinkable; managers with track records of delivering returns to shareholders were as hard to find as the commodities they were looking for.
But even the biggest companies, such as BHP Billiton BHP.AU +1.43% PLC, have been tightening their belts when it comes to executive compensation. Andrew Mackenzie, who became BHP's chief executive in May, agreed to a base salary roughly 25% below that of predecessor Marius Kloppers and accepted a more limited bonus package.
In Australia-the world's biggest exporter of iron ore and coking coal-wages rose sharply as the economy notched 21 years of uninterrupted growth. Base salaries paid to the chief executives at Australia's top 100 companies rose every year in the decade through mid-2012, according to consulting firm Ernst & Young. Median annual increases topped 11% some years, although wage growth slowed when the global financial crisis rattled world markets and companies turned to incentive-weighted compensation plans.
Mer på link
|Kina skapte metallrally i Asia
Tirsdagens handel på børsene i Asia bød opp til gullfest, etter Kina kom med lovnader om å øke investeringene i infrastruktur.
|China slowdown bare en hildring?
Uansett, vekstlokomotivet har ennå mye å gi kan det se ut som.
Nye rekorder på løpende bånd...
Slowdown. What slowdown? China's copper, iron ore imports set records
Frik Els, Mining.com
Oct. 13, 2013
Worries about an economic slowdown in China - the world's number commodities consumer - have put a damper on metals and minerals prices this year.
But customs data released in China over the weekend seem to indicate those fears may have overblown.
China forges almost as much steel as the rest of the world combined and to meet the demand for steelmaking raw material China's iron ore imports surged to a fresh record in September.
China imported a new all-time high of 74.58 million tonnes of iron ore during last month September, up 8% from August and up a surprisingly robust 15% compared to las year.
China has continued to produce steel at a record pace, upping the rate by 100,000 tonnes in September to 2.14m tonnes per day (and up close to 8% compare to the first 8 months last year), showing demand in the world's second largest economy is not as slack as many observers believe.
China imports the bulk of its iron ore and that number is growing as the new Chinese leadership opens up the industry to market forces and highly fragmented domestic producers continue to struggle with high mining costs and low quality ore.
Iron ore stockpiles at major Chinese ports have been rising slowly but steadily in recent months but last week declined slightly to reach 73.3m tonnes.
These levels only represent around 60% of monthly consumption by the country's steel industry and are historically near record low levels which averaged around 100 million tonnes during the first half of last year.
The price of iron ore has defied expectations of slump in 2013 and on Friday benchmark CFR import price of 62% fines at China's Tianjin climbed to $133.10 a tonne, up from its 2013 low of $110 a tonne reached in May.
Copper imports, reversed declines suffered earlier in the year rocketing 18% to hit 457,847 tonnes in September, the highest since March 2012, thanks to a decline in high levels of warehouse stocks.
China consumes some 42% of the world's copper trade and bonded warehouse stocks have decline more than 60% since hitting a high of 1 million tonnes at the beginning of 2013.
Total imports of copper in the June-September quarter rose 21.4% over the second quarter to 1.26 million tonnes, according to the customs data.
Copper futures were priced at $3.21 a pound on Friday, down 11.8% since this time last year.
Endret 17.10.2013 19:40 av OldNick
|Nickel supply cut as Indonesia enforces ban
Leder Metal Bulletin
Jan. 14, 2014
Singapore - Indonesia has gone ahead with a ban on unprocessed mineral exports that threatens a sharp cut in global supplies of nickel ore and bauxite.
The long-planned January 12 ban was signed into law with last-minute modifications to allow shipments of copper concentrates and some other intermediate products for a further three years.
Final details were not yet available, but it looks likely that nickel ore and bauxite shipments will not escape the ban, in a move which will benefit refined nickel producers and prove a headache for Chinese aluminium and stainless steel producers.
"Starting at midnight on January 14, 2014, raw ore cannot be exported," Jero Wacik, energy and mines minister, told local reporters in Indonesia, according to media reports.
President Susilo Bamban Yudhoyono signed a government regulation in the eleventh hour on Saturday January 11 that softens the impact of the ban and allows big mining companies like Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold and Nemont Mining Corp to continue to ship copper concentrates until 2017.
About 66 companies that have plans to process domestically will be allowed to export, Wacik told reporters in Jakarta over the weekend.
Indonesia's finance minister Chatib Basri told reporters last week that the proposed regulation would hurt government revenue by 10 trillion rupiah ($846 million) in 2104 due to losses from royalties and export taxes. "What I heard is the minimum grade for copper is 15% Cu content; that means Freeport and Newmont can continue to export concentrates," Syahrir Abubakar, Indonesian Mining Assn's executive director said.
Spokespersons at Freeport and Newmont were not immediately available for comment.
Details of the regulation and a ministerial decree which would identify minimum processing requirements for each mineral were not public yet, Metal Bulletin understands.
"Nickel and bauxite ore can't be exported," a senior industry participant said from Jakarta, adding that for other minerals there could be a progressive increase in export duties from the initial 20% level.
"The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has estimated that bauxite production could fall to 1 million tonnes this year from over 47 million tonnes in 2013 and that nickel ore production could decline to 9 million tonnes from more than 47 million tonnes last year," Barclays analysts said in a note to clients on Saturday.
China's stocks of about 24 million tonnes of nickel ore are expected to soften the impact of the Indonesian ban.
The mining industry is currently discussing the export duty and plans to lobby the government to take a similar case-by-case approach as it did with the minimum processing requirements for each mineral.
"As of now, the export duty on minerals is 20% and they should change it on minerals and grade," Abubakar said. Executives from the mining industry were meeting this afternoon to discuss plans for a progressive export duty.
The cost structure for each commodity is different and therefore a higher export duty could make exports of certain processed minerals unviable, he said, pointing to the need for looking at each mineral and their cost structures for the progressive export duty.
Nickel Seen by Macquarie Swinging to Deficit in 2015 on Ore Ban
Jan. 14, 2014
The global nickel market may swing into a deficit next year as Indonesia's ore export ban will constrain production of nickel pig iron, a lower-grade alternative to refined metal, said Macquarie Group Ltd.
A surplus may narrow to 35,000 metric tons in 2014 from 150,000 tons in 2013 as NPI output falls 1.5 percent to 475,000 tons, analysts including Jim Lennon said in a
Endret 16.01.2014 20:28 av OldNick
The bank joins Barclays Plc predicting that the rule, which took effect Jan. 12, may push the market into supply shortages in 2015. Indonesia, the biggest mined nickel producer, accounts for 18 percent to 20 percent of global nickel supply, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates. The metal may reach $17,000 a ton this quarter, according to Citigroup Inc. That would mean a 19 percent gain from the current price.
We assume that stocks are adequate to sustain production in 2014, the Macquarie analysts said in the research note. For 2015, the market will swing into a deficit assuming that NPI production starts to get constrained.
Nickel for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 0.4 percent to $14,260 a ton, the highest since Dec. 30, and was at $14,258 at 11:58 a.m. in Shanghai. The metal, used in corrosion resistance in stainless steel, has climbed 2.6 percent this month, the most among the six base metals on the LME. Prices slumped 19 percent in 2013.
Global output will exceed demand by 41,000 tons this year, narrowing from a 181,000-ton surplus in 2013, while the ban may push the global market into deficit in 2015, said Barclays analysts including Gayle Berry this week.
mer på link
Et spørsmål for et Ni-marked som kan komme i underskudd med pris-oppgang som resultat.
Alle gruvene som har vært i drift i Indonesia, og som nå stopper pga. eksportforbudet, de har sagt opp/vil si opp mange ansatte gruvearbeidere og andre.
De har alledere streiket i Jakarta, vil det bli uro pga. dette?
Vi vet Indonesia er et av verdens mest korrupte land, kan gruvene bestikke seg til fortsatt eksport til China?
Kan selskap/industrien forhandle seg til unntak?
Slike ting kan skje når markedet blri stresset og vi får pris-spikes.
Better second half expected for mining equities - Citi analysts
Jan. 14, 2014
The mining sector could deliver a strong second half in terms of equity prices, analysts at Citigroup said in a note on Monday January 13.
"While we remain neutral on the metals and mining sector on a six-month view, we think the sector can potentially deliver a strong second-half 2014 performance based on free cash flow, cost cutting and volume growth as the market looks into 2015," they said.
"In 2013 the mining companies changed ceos, cut capex plans and focused on costs but, despite this, the sector underperformed the FTSE 100 by [about] 24%," they added.
Last year was the third year in a row that the sector underperformed, according to the analysts, following 19% underperformance in 2011 and 12% in 2012.
Into 2014, meanwhile, they believe the sector will perform in line with markets during the first half of the year, driven by a near-term slowdown in China and a "muted" commodity price outlook.
In the second half, the analysts said, they believe the sector will benefit from better free cash flow yields and improving balance sheets, thanks to lower capital spending and cost cutting.
"We see 2015 as a potential fillip year for the mining industry and we think that investors should position themselves for this by mid-2014," the analysts said.
"We forecast the sector to deliver a [compound annual growth rate] in earnings of [about] 7% until the end of the decade, driven principally by volume growth and cost cutting rather than by commodity prices," they added.
Importantly, they are predicting free cash flow yield to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 23.9% until 2020, which is a function of reductions in capital expenditure.
Overall, they estimate that the sector is trading at a price to earnings discount of about 10% against the UK market, and Rio Tinto remains the cheapest name on a relative basis on the London Stock Exchange.
Endret 16.01.2014 20:29 av OldNick
|MB APEX FULL YEAR 2013 BASE METALS
Chinese influence keeps metals in thrall for 2014 - Meir
Claire Hack, Metal Bulletin
Jan. 29, 2014
China will continue to have the greatest influence on base metals prices in 2014, according to Apex stalwart Edward Meir, who provides metals price research for INTL FCStone.
Meir appeared on no fewer than seven Apex leaderboards for his price predictions overall in 2013, including the top spot for iron ore, with 99.35% accuracy, and narrowly missed out on first place for his base metals predictions, with 92.05%.
"We're going to see China continue to slow down and that will remove a significant part from metals demand," Meir told Metal Bulletin.
"The reform package there is really very anti-growth in the short term. It's good in the longer term, but in the short term, it means higher currency, higher interest rates, a more difficult credit environment and tighter monetary policy."
This will be bearish news for prices over the next three to six months, Meir said, but it could also set the stage for a rebound later in the year.
In the final quarter of 2014, leading into 2015, the likelihood is that at least some supply will be taken out of the market in China on continuing weak prices, and this reduction in availability will eventually push prices back up.
"We will see an acceleration in supply spin-offs, and especially in sectors like aluminium, where the West has been cutting a lot of production, but China hasn't," Meir said.
"We think it will extend to China and they will take some supply out of the market: there will be a recalibration of the supply/demand balance," he added.
This could mean the emergence of a "mini bull market" for base metals at the beginning of 2015, Meir said, although there is still potential for a selloff in the first half of 2014.
The first half will be a period of vulnerability for the market, he said, adding that he believes there is still some ground to cover on the downside.
"We will be testing the 2013 lows for most of the base metals over the next six to eight months," Meir told Metal Bulletin.
"I think the best performing metals will probably be lead and zinc, then tin and copper, and aluminium and nickel are going to bring up the rear," he added.
The reason for this, he said, is that he does not believe the Indonesian ban on exports of unrefined mineral ores will necessarily remain in effect in its current form for long, which would have implications for all the base metals.
It is likely that the ban will be modified at least somewhat, according to Meir, which could mean nickel price levels in particular would suffer.
"Metal will need to come out. There's too much [of a risk] of job losses and balance of payments pressures. I don't think they're going to stand their ground," he said.
"It takes time for refineries to get up and running - I think the government will say, 'if you're building, you can export'."
If the Indonesian government decides to remove the export ban altogether, furthermore, this could destroy all the gains the nickel price has made in recent weeks, especially as there are no signs of any production cutbacks.
"It was an artificial boost because of the export ban, but I'm not sure the Indonesian government will have the financial stick-to-itiveness [to keep it]," Meir said.
"If they [keep the ban], it's a different story - the price could go to $17,000, $18,000, even $20,000 by summer."
Lead, on the other hand, will be in the tightest supply/demand balance, he added, and could even see a slight deficit in 2014.
"Tin will be in deficit this year as well, and copper will be in surplus, but less so than what was originally expected," Meir said.
Endret 03.02.2014 14:35 av OldNick
|"The tighter markets are going to do better. Lead is a very problematic metal - there's a lot of environmental pressure and nobody wants a lead smelter anywhere," he added.
As for aluminium, the major factor affecting prices and premiums will be the huge stockpiles extant globally, which could be up to 10 million tonnes, including off-exchange material.
"We will see what happens in April [when the new LME rules come in] and it will be easier to get metal out," Meir said.
"We'll see if premiums start to crack a bit then, but the spreads are still juicy enough for the financial trade to continue right now. As long as [the spreads] stay where they are, I don't think anything will change, except maybe some material will move off exchange."
Global demand holding firm
Globally, the demand picture looks relatively firm across the base metals, Meir said, as the US economy is likely to continue to grow, while the eurozone is stabilising, along with Japan.
"I think the demand picture is going to be more predictable. On the Chinese side, there will be 6-10% metals demand growth; the US will be a bit stronger this year and Europe a bit stronger as well," he said.
"For the BRIC countries, there will probably be more of the same in 2014, and the UK will be stronger."
US wild card could hit prices
The wild card, however, will be the impact of the Federal Reserve's plans to taper economic stimulus in the USA, he added.
"There's another meeting in [January] and there might be another $10 billion taken off the bond buying programme," Meir said.
It is likely that the US economy will be able to adjust to the changing pressures caused by the tapering programme, but a stronger dollar will almost certainly weaken metals prices.
Year of transition
The result is that 2014 will be a year of transition, after the market scrambles away from the rocky terrain of 2013.
"2013 was really a sideways slog for the most part. We had a few rallies but they all fizzled out," Meir said.
"The Cypriot [debt] crisis threw things off, as well as the Fed saying it was moving from an accommodative stance to a more restrictive stance," he added.
The market also began to come to terms with the idea that China would not continue its meteoric rate of growth indefinitely, and came to realise that its economy is susceptible to slowdowns, according to Meir.
The effect of this, he said, will be felt throughout 2014.
"There will be a sharper slowdown [in China] this year. We've had some numbers and GDP was decent, but these are still pre-tightening numbers - they're not capturing the full impact of the government moves," Meir said.
"There's just so much excess capacity that they need to rein in. It can't continue because there's too much supply in the market, too much debt and too many bad loans."
Because of their sheer scale, economic movements in China will therefore continue to dominate the landscape, overshadowing other potential influences, while the potential bearish impact of a stronger US dollar drifts towards the horizon.
For all Apex results, click here
Rare earths deposit worth close to global GDP found in North Korea
Metal Bulletin Hotline
Jan. 31, 2014
Private equity group SRE Minerals plans to develop what they say could be the world's largest rare earth elements (REEs) deposit as part of a joint venture with the North Korean government.
SRE estimates that the Jongju deposit in North Korea holds 216 million tonnes of rare earth oxides, which includes about 2.66% of heavy REEs, as well as light REEs and rare earth minerals.
This is double the world stockpile of rare earths, which, according to the US geological survey's most recent estimate, stands at 110 million tonnes.
Endret 03.02.2014 14:40 av OldNick
|SRE Minerals estimates the value of the resources in the ground at $64.9 trillion, an impressive amount considering North Korea's GDP stands at $12.4 billion and global GDP is $69 trillion.
The joint venture company, operating under the name Pacific Century Rare Earth Minerals (PCL), has a 25-year license to mine the deposit and plans to build a processing plant on site.
"This represents an exciting opportunity for investors to be part of the early stage exploration and subsequence [sic] production of possibly the largest rare earth deposit in the world," SRE Minerals said.
When Molycorp started producing REEs to combat supply risks in a market dominated by China, prices suffered against the effects of new supply. Hotline wonders what a mine containing over 200 million tonnes will do to the market.
But Hotline is also sceptical whether the mine will ever start producing rare earths given their weak prices and the current political climate in North Korea. But then again Metal Bulletin also thought aluminium premiums would fall.
Perhaps it's time for a Metal Bulletin questionnaire. What is more likely to happen in 2014? Suggested options:
- Rare earths are mined in North Korea
- Platinum is mined on asteroids
- Aluminium premiums will fall
Vinneren av 2013's MB Apex-konkurranse om å spå metallprisene mest nøyaktig, Angus Staines fra UBS blir intervjuet av Alex Harrison, MB.
5 min video på link
VIDEO: Copper prices are on the way down
Alex Harrison, Metal Bulletin
Jan. 30, 2014
UBS analyst Angus Staines, who came top in Metal Bulletin's Apex leaderboard for copper for 2013, talks to Metal Bulletin's Alex Harrison about what underpins his price predictions for copper this year, and when he thinks aluminium premiums will begin to fall.
UBS analyst Angus Staines, who came top in Metal Bulletin's Apex leaderboard for copper for 2013, talks to Metal Bulletin's Alex Harrison about what underpins his price predictions for copper this year, and when he thinks aluminium premiums will begin to fall.
"Storhertugen av Russland", Gregoriy Romanov setter opp eget konsulentselskap i Brussels...
Georgy Romanov leaves Norilsk
Claire Hack, Metal Bulletin
Jan. 28, 2014
Georgy Romanov is no longer working for Norilsk Nickel, Metal Bulletin has been told.
Romanov, who is also the Grand Duke of Russia, is understood to have left his role as president of Switzerland-based Norilsk subsidiary Metal Trade Overseas to set up PR firm Romanoff and Partners in Brussels.
Norilsk has confirmed he will not be replaced, as the post of president no longer exists at Metal Trade Overseas.
Romanov was previously the president of Norilsk Nickel Europe. In December 2012 he took over from Michael Heger at Metal Trade Overseas, which handles the servicing of the nickel producer's contracts and sales.
He is also the possible heir to the defunct Russian imperial throne - known as the pretender tsarevich - although this is disputed by some of the other Romanovs.
Endret 03.02.2014 14:43 av OldNick
|Forlenget bunn i råvaresyklusen?
Canadian miners struggle amid oversupply, price collapse
Rachelle Younglai, Mining Reporter, Globe and Mail
Sept. 23 2014
For more than a decade, China's growing economy fuelled the bull market in commodities. Mining companies spent billions on acquisitions and new projects around the world, adding waves of new supply to keep the country's steel mills and factories humming.
Then China's economic growth slowed and the good times stopped. Now the mining industry around the globe is suffering amid a price collapse for some key metals.
Iron ore has lost more than half its value since the boom days, trading at $80 (U.S.) a tonne from a high of $190 in 2011.
Metallurgical coal has sunk to $120 a tonne, down from $330 in 2011.
Copper has retreated to $3.03 a pound, compared with a high of $4.50 in 2011.
"It will be a while before we see a boom again," said Fabien Jurdant, chief operating officer with CRU Consulting, a global commodities adviser.
"We are not seeing any kind of major upturn for some time. Unless there was some miracle, if India becomes the new China. But we are not predicting that," Mr. Jurdant added
Now entering the third year of the commodity slump, miners are still adjusting to the harsh realities. Projects have been shelved and jobs have been cut, as the fallout from sharply lower commodity prices is felt around the world.
In Canada, Labrador Iron Mines Holdings Ltd. suspended operations at its mines this summer. Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. stopped production at its iron ore pellet plant on Quebec's north shore earlier this year. Baffinland Iron Mines Corp. sharply scaled back its Mary River iron ore project in Nunavut last year.
Also this year, Walter Energy Inc. suspended coal-mining operations and laid off workers in British Columbia, and Teck Resources Ltd. idled its Quintette coal property in the western province. Anglo American PLC will soon halt production at its coal mine in the same province.
China, which has became the world's largest consumer of iron ore, copper and other metals, is growing at a slower pace.
"China is still growing. The question is 'will it materially outpace supply?' The answer is becoming no," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy with Toronto-Dominion Bank.
Weakened Asian demand combined with a surge in production has left a glut of commodities.
According to the CRU's estimates, the iron ore market has a surplus of about 100 million tonnes over demand. The metallurgical coal market has a surplus of about six million to eight million tonnes because projects developed during the commodity boom are now starting to produce.
Over the past decade, production of iron ore, used to make steel, jumped to 1.85 billion tonnes in 2012 from 1.16 billion in 2003, according to the World Steel Association.
Output of metallurgical coal, also used in steel making, has increased to one billion tonnes in 2013 from 661 million tonnes in 2005, according to the International Energy Agency.
Copper, used in construction, electronics and energy, has jumped to 20.9 million tonnes in 2013 from 15.9 million in 2004, according to the International Copper Study Group.
And although the smaller iron ore companies are losing money and laying off workers, the world's biggest producers - Vale SA, Rio Tinto PLC and BHP Billiton Ltd. - have no plans to reduce output.
"They are low-cost producers and they are still generating okay margins," said Jessica Fung, commodity strategist with BMO Nesbitt Burns. "So rather than increase their profit margin per unit, they are going to produce more units," she said.
And more copper is coming onto the market, which will keep prices low for the foreseeable future. Big mines are expecte
|Kan være den endelige spikeren i kisten for Northland Resources
Supersykelen er over, sier investeringsdirektør Stig Myrseth i Dovre Forvaltning
Odd S. Parr, Hegnar.no
I sin seneste ukesrapport tar investeringsdirektør Stig Myrseth i Dovre Forvaltning for seg det han kaller høststormen i råvaremarkedene.
Hveteprisen stuper, jernmalmprisen er i fritt fall og Brent-olje handles på det laveste nivået på to år. Hva skyldes det skarpe fallet i mat-, energi- og metallprisene? spør han.
Fra investering til produksjon
Myrseth viser til et gammelt visdomsord som sier at høye råvarepriser er den beste kuren mot høye råvarepriser, og tegner bildet av et råvaremarked som har gått fra en investerings- til en produksjonsdrevet fase.
Det første tiåret etter sekelskiftet var preget av systematisk stigende råvarepriser. Kinas råvarehunger tok produsentene på sengen, og de responderte med å mangedoble investeringene i ny kapasitet.
Ledetiden fra investeringsbeslutninger fattes til produksjonen øker, er ofte lang, spesielt i gruve- og oljeindustrien. Resultatet av det siste tiårets investeringsboom begynner imidlertid nå for alvor å gjøre seg gjeldende, skriver Dovre-direktøren.
Supersykelen er over
At produksjonen av en rekke råvarer har skutt fart, har ifølge Myrseth ført til et trendskifte.
Supersykelen er over, og vi venter flate til fallende råvarepriser resten av dette tiåret, fortsetter han.
For råvareprodusenter som Statoil vil stagnerende priser ifølge investeringsdirektøren delvis utlignes av økte volumer.
Videre vil kontantstrømmen bedres av en mer behersket investeringstakt. Nettoeffekten trenger ikke å være negativ.
For underleverandører til råvareindustrien er imidlertid bildet mer dystert. Det blir mindre å gjøre, og prisen på deres tjenester er dessuten under press, poengterer Myrseth.
Spikeren i kisten for Northland?
Det negativt langsiktige bakteppet har, sammen med flere kortsiktige motvinder, ifølge Dovre-direktøren utløst høststormen i råvaremarkedet.
I kornmarkedet tynger utsiktene til rekordavlinger. På Oslo Børs er de lave matprisene godt nytt for Orkla, men negativt for Yara.
I jernmalm- og metallmarkedet herjer Kina-frykten. Kinesiske boligpriser har falt de fire siste månedene, samtidig som makrotallene skuffer, fortsetter Myrseth.
Han peker videre på at den labre kinesiske malmimporten har sendt bulkratene til bunns, noe som har gitt Golden Ocean-aksjonærene en tung start på høsten.
Dagens lave malmpriser kan også bety den endelige spikeren i kisten for Northland Resources, advarer investeringsdirektøren.
mer på link
|Glencore fortsetter sin aggressive oppkjøps/restrukturerings strategi.|
Som med Xstrata, Glencore lykkes nesten å selge selskapet til VALE for noen år siden, det var rett før finanskrisen, så har de vurdert Anglo American og nå altså Rio Tinto.
Rio Tinto/Glencore 2014/15 combination 'unlikely' - J.P.Morgan
"We expect GLEN will retain its M&A opportunism, therefore we conclude RIO should warrant a premium to its current share prices."
Dorothy Kosich, Mineweb
Oct. 7, 2014
RENO - As Rio Tinto (RIO.L) announced Monday that it had rejected a merger approach from Glencore Plc (GLEN.L) last month, J.P.Morgan Cazenove's European Corporate Research analysts Tuesday characterized the merger approach "opportunistic."
The comment was prompted by a story published by Bloomberg Monday quoting "people familiar with the situation", which reported that Glencore is laying the groundwork for a potential merger with Rio Tinto "that would create the world's largest mining company, valued at US$160 billion.
In a note published Tuesday morning, J.P. Morgan analysts advised, "RIO is undervalued " and reiterated its OW on RIO, "our Neutral on GLEN and expect RIO relative outperformance."
"We consider this an opportunistic approach by GLEN that reflects: 1) the spread between RIO's and GLEN's market cap is at its narrowest since mid-2013; 2) a combination would carry strategic merit for GLEN which has negligible iron ore exposure; 3) RIO's EPS is materially undervalued relative to peers in our view, with its 2015E/16E earnings trading at a 40%/43% discount to GLEN on spot commodity prices," said the analysts.
"We believe a future successful offer would require a significant premium to RIO's current share price, therefore we reiterate our OW on RIO and our expectation of outperformance versus GLEN," they added.
Glencore's unsuccessful approach last month was unanimously rejected by Rio Tinto's board of directors in early August "and there has been no further contact between the companies on this matter," said Rio Tinto in a media release published early Tuesday.
Rio Tinto Chairman Jan du Plessis said, "The board believes that the continued successful execution of Rio Tinto's strategy will allow Rio Tinto to increase free cash flow significantly in the near term and materially increase returns to shareholders. Rio Tinto's shareholders stand to benefit from the very considerable value that this will generate."
While J.P.Morgan analysts advised that a combination between Glencore and Rio Tinto is unlikely is 2014/15, they also suggested Glencore's approach was based on "credible strategic rationale."
"GLEN's approach affirms our view that GLEN has strategic appetite to pursue a tie-up with RIO. In our view, GLEN's management are attracted by the physical commodity trading opportunities potentially afforded by RIO's iron ore business, a commodity where GLEN has negligible exposure."
The analysts also suggested that Glencore spot earnings are an obstacle to a transaction. "We estimate GLEN currently carries the largest mark to market EPS downgrades of the diversifieds. The premium required based on current spot commodity prices would result in a loss of GLEN management control that would negative the transaction rationale, in our view."
En interessant artikkel i FT om jernmalmindustrien og markedet, som nå ser en lengre bunn i syklusen foran seg pga. massive overinvesteringer i utvidelser og nye gruver.
Det blir en blodig avskalling fra en industri som har et oligopolisk preg pga. de 3 store BHP, Rio Tinto og VALE (+en mindre Fortesque FMG.AX). VALE har sine gruver i Brazil, de tre andre i Australia (Western Australia). Og deres cash cost for å produsere malmen er lav, $20-30 per tonn (62% Fe), med ca. $10/tonn frakt til Kina.
Legger innhele artikkelen da FT er betalingstjeneste.
|End of the Iron Age
A collapse of ore prices throws miners' strategies into doubt and threatens an industry shakeout
James Wilson, Neil Hume, FT.com
Sept. 29, 2014
Iron is one of the most abundant elements on earth but pulling it out of the ground efficiently can be a daunting undertaking. Snaking through the low, green hills of southern Brazil is a 530km pipeline, the decisive link in Anglo American's $8.2bn Minas-Rio project to extract iron ore in the Brazilian interior and ship it from a new Atlantic port. Way over its original $3.6bn budget and two years late, Minas-Rio is finally close to the point of "first ore on ship".
For years, huge mining projects such as these have formed the backbone of global economic expansion. The world's most important commodity after crude oil, iron ore has been devoured by Chinese steel mills, emerging as the raw material for an infrastructure-led growth spurt.
But Minas-Rio is about to deliver its first ore into a much less welcoming world. The price of iron ore has plunged more than 40 per cent this year, the worst performance across metals and bulk commodities in 2014. From an average price of $135 per tonne last year, the benchmark iron ore contract sank last week to less than $80 for the first time since the global financial crisis.
"The iron ore market is in the midst of a transition without precedent in recent commodity history," says Macquarie, the Australian bank.
Behind the change is a big increase in iron ore exports - and not just the 26.5m tonnes that Minas-Rio will bring to market when fully operational in 2016. Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, the world's dominant three producers, have collectively raised output from below 700m tonnes three years ago to well over 800m tonnes and have plans to push supply past 1bn tonnes within a few years. Fortescue, the number four producer, has gone from 41m to 124m tonnes in the same period and expects to pump out 155m tonnes this year. Hancock Prospecting expects its new 55m tonne per annum Roy Hill mine in Australia to start loading ore next year.
Mark Cutifani, chief executive of Anglo American, says miners have "overbaked the supply pie" in the commodities boom - and iron ore is the most telling example.
The supply tsunami is not the only factor weighing on prices. Concerns about a slowdown in demand from China, the world's biggest steelmaker and consumer of seaborne iron ore, have also taken hold. "Given that two-thirds of traded iron ore ends up in China, Chinese demand for ore and Chinese domestic production are important determinants of the global price," says CRU, a consultancy in London.
A slowdown in China's residential property sector, where the construction boom has saddled many areas with oversupply and falling prices, has led to weakening steel demand. Unlike the big iron ore sell-off in 2012, when government stimulus helped prices rebound, Beijing is unlikely to alter its policy dramatically this time.
"If supply was the driver of iron ore weakness in the first half of the year, demand is now the problem," says Colin Hamilton, head of commodities research at Macquarie.
A recent Goldman Sachs report warned of the potential for a long trend of declining prices. It said 2014 was "an inflection point where new production capacity finally catches up with demand growth, and profit margins begin their reversion to the historical mean . . . the end of the Iron Age is here".
Given that iron ore accounts for between 50 and 90 per cent of profits at the world's three largest miners, a price collapse would be alarming for shareholders clamouring for better returns from the underperforming sector. BHP held off on an expected share buyback in August, citing the deteriorating outlook for commodity prices.
For smaller, emerging producers, the problems are existential and a shakeout, with ownership changes, is on
|the cards. In west Africa, some of the world's poorest countries have pinned development hopes partly on iron ore. But in Sierra Leone and Liberia, smaller miners including African Minerals and London Mining are scrambling for cash to stave off collapse. Yesterday shares in UK-listed London Mining fell by more than 60 per cent after the miner said it needed more funds and was talking to an investor about a capital injection.
That miners have done so much to bring down prices by pushing supply is, for some, a perfect example of the industry's cyclical ability to aim for the stars only to shoot itself in the foot. Ivan Glasenberg, chief executive of Glencore, the largest miner without iron ore mines, says: "Iron ore growth is good but you've got to look at supply. Iron ore is under pressure because everyone is adding growth."
Evy Hambro, head of the natural resources equity team at BlackRock, says: "The majors have been showing greater capital discipline but they need to keep on this path. The iron ore market is already in surplus, so miners need to decide if it is wise to spend more money adding additional tonnes or not."
Bigger producers argue they are acting logically. As the lowest-cost producers running vast operations, they assume they can withstand lower prices while rivals fall out of the market.
Sam Walsh, chief executive of Rio, insists that this is working. Mr Walsh says 85m tonnes of iron ore has already been driven out of the market because it is no longer competitive and he expects 125m tonnes to be withdrawn by the end of the year. "An adjustment is obviously taking place . . . All of that is supply and demand at work," he says. Mr Walsh believes the market presents miners with a prisoners' dilemma. No one company can refrain from production: others will fill the gap and the price will still adjust. Rivals would get a "free kick".
"People very simplistically say, 'If you took off 100m tonnes wouldn't we all be better off?'" he says. "The answer is no. Some of that capacity is going to come straight back on - from other people."
Rio, the lowest-cost producer, "should be the last person taking off capacity".
Miners' actions can also be viewed as an attempt to see off competitors. The trio of companies that dominated the market - Rio, BHP and Vale - have been joined by new producers: Fortescue will this year produce half as much as Vale, from a standing start in 2008.
Nev Power, Fortescue's chief executive, says his company has helped bring "the iron ore price back from unsustainable peaks back to more long-term and sustainable competitive pricing".
An executive at an African iron ore project says the largest miners "opened the door to Fortescue - the last thing they want to do is open the door to producers in west Africa. So they are ramping up the tonnage. They want to kill the other producers and give everyone the fright of their lives so no one builds another iron ore mine".
But so far supply has not left the market as economic logic should dictate. Cuts have come from non-mainstream producers in countries such as Iran, Indonesia and Mexico, as well as high-cost privately owned mines in China itself. But other parts of the Chinese mining and steel industry are controlled by large, state-owned steel companies where jobs, not profits, are the priority.
"The response by high-cost producers . . . has been much slower than certainly what I thought and what most in the industry thought," Mr Power says. "But inevitably that needs to happen . . . so the iron ore price will be low for long enough for that supply to exit the market. That's an economic reality."
Nor does it look as though demand will return to the buoyant levels of the past decade soon. The vice-chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association told a conference last week that China's apparent crude steel consumption - that is excluding net exports - had fallen 1.9 per cent to 61.9m tonnes in
Endret 08.10.2014 12:25 av OldNick
|August - the first decrease in 14 years.
Mr Hamilton says Chinese mills are cutting production heavily because demand is weak and they cannot sell more to a saturated export market. "In that environment they will want to hold less iron ore, particularly as steel prices are falling quicker than iron ore prices at the current time," he says. The futures price of reinforcing bar, a steel product used in building, has hit a record low.
The low prices of iron ore were the "new status quo", the president of Baoshan Iron & Steel, China's second biggest steelmaker, told the conference.
Tim Murray of J Capital Research says a property market correction is under way in China, with new starts in construction negative for five consecutive months. "We will see a 20 per cent reduction in steel demand from construction over the next 12 months."
Beyond shorter-term demand problems is a broader concern that China's appetite for steel - and hence iron ore - will peak, although CRU, a consultancy, reckons that "peak steel" will not occur for at least another five years as the country continues to experience absolute growth in construction activity.
Miners identify longer-term growth prospects in other regions, such as India or Africa. But while they may eventually follow China's trajectory, they may not do so with such concerted vigour.
Large iron ore miners are not consumed by panic yet. According to UBS analysts, Rio and BHP can break even by delivering ore from Australia to China at prices as low as $45 and $50 respectively. "Even at $80 iron ore is really good business," says Chris LaFemina, an analyst at Jefferies.
But if the miners have misjudged, and iron ore prices are driven further down, the shakeout could hurt shareholders. Liberum, a UK broker, thinks that at current iron ore prices neither Rio nor BHP can deliver promised capital returns next year while holding to their targets for net debt, although other analysts are more confident miners can stick to their plans.
At Anglo American, there is no talk of Minas-Rio's once-anticipated second phase - rather satisfaction that the miner's other output, from diamonds to copper, offers some protection from the battle raging in iron ore. "I have nine other commodities that have a different prognosis," says Mr Cutifani. "We will wait for the iron ore market to fall back into reasonable equilibrium."
Market index: In search of a more realistic pricing system
What determines the iron ore price? As with most commodities the obvious answer is supply and demand but the market is not quite the clear arbiter that economic theory would suggest.
The mining and steelmaking industry used to set the price of iron ore through annual contracts. But as China overtook Japan as the biggest consumer of internationally traded "seaborne" iron ore, the system began to break down. Like oil, aluminium and coal before it, the iron ore industry ditched annual contacts in 2010 and moved to the new system, using a spot market index - usually the Platts Iron Ore Index - to set the price of quarterly contracts. The market has evolved further since then with a big move towards short-term contracts that are more reflective of market prices.
Critics of the index pricing system say it has increased volatility and reduced the visibility of earnings for big miners. Others say the spot market is not yet liquid enough to provide accurate price formation.
"Ten per cent or less of the world's seaborne iron ore is traded on the spot market - and that sets the index price," says one market participant. "We find a lot of the participants in the spot market are high-cost, low-grade suppliers or struggling steel mills, which may have difficulty obtaining letters of credit from Chinese banks to buy ore."
He says the solution is for big producers to tip more ore into the spot market, which they are reluctant to do.
Endret 08.10.2014 12:25 av OldNick
|The benchmark price only partly reflects what a miner can expect to earn. Ore is sold in many forms and grades, with iron content of 62 per cent being the benchmark. Large miners and traders blend output. Some think China will increasingly want higher-grade ore to make steel, meaning this ore will attract a premium price.
As with many commodities, miners' best protection against falling prices is to produce as cheaply as possible. They need precise knowledge of where they and rivals lie on the "cost curve". If new competitive supply comes on line the price at which demand is met should fall. Mines further up the cost curve become uncompetitive and should cease output.
Additional reporting by Jamie Smyth
Bloomberg-artikkelen som refererte Goldman's analyse av jernmalmindustrien for 1 måned siden.
Goldman Calls End to Iron Age After 'Dramatic' Drop in Ore Price
By Jasmine Ng, Bloomberg
Sept. 10, 2014
Endret 08.10.2014 12:25 av OldNick
|Og majors fortsetter aa poese jernmalm inn i et overfylt marked, med fortsatt priskollaps som resultat.
Her skal mange hoy-kost gruver stenges ned.
Iron Ore Seen by Citigroup Below $60 as 2015 Forecast Cut
Jasmine Ng, Juan Pablo Spinetto, Bloomberg
Nov. 11, 2014
Iron ore prices will plummet to less than $60 a metric ton next year as global supply increases and demand remains weak, according to Citigroup Inc., which slashed its quarterly forecasts for 2015 by as much as 23 percent.
The raw material will average $72 a ton in the first three months of 2015, down from an earlier forecast of $82, Ivan Szpakowski, an analyst in Hong Kong, wrote in a report dated today. The second-quarter forecast was cut to $65 from $80, while the third was reduced to $60 from $78 and the figure for the final three months was put at $62 from $78, he wrote.
Iron ore lost 44 percent this year as surging supplies from BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and Rio Tinto Group in Australia and Brazil's Vale SA created a glut just as China's economy slowed. The surplus will more than double next year, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., which yesterday cut price forecasts through 2017. Falling ore prices are having a direct impact on Australia's budget, Treasurer Joe Hockey said today.
"We expect renewed supply growth to once again drive the market lower in 2015, combined with further demand weakness," Szpakowski wrote in the report, predicting the price will dip into the $50s a ton in the third quarter. "We still have a long way to go" in the bear market, he said in a phone interview.
Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao fell to $75.80 a dry ton yesterday, extending the biggest weekly drop since May, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. The commodity slumped to $75.38 on Nov. 6, the lowest since September 2009.
Iron ore's collapse this year prompted Macquarie Group Ltd. to say in a September report that the global market is in the midst of a transition without precedent in recent commodity history as supply jumps and higher-cost mines shut. The same month, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. declared the "end of the Iron Age" as a Chinese-led demand surge over the past decade that had brought record profits for producers came to an end.
In China, "we expect many mines that shut over the winter to simply not restart," said Szpakowski, who also reduced price forecasts for 2016 and 2017 while keeping the 2018 outlook at $80. "But the scope of such cuts is likely to be insufficient. As a result, prices will need to fall further."
Iron ore prices are 30 percent to 40 percent lower than in May, when Australia's budget forecasts were made, Hockey said in an Adelaide radio interview today. That has a direct impact on the budget bottom line, he said.
"Obviously we have to respond to the circumstances that we find ourselves in," Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said in an interview in Beijing yesterday when asked if falling ore prices made it harder to cut the budget deficit. "I don't think we should assume that the iron ore price is stuck at $75."
While 2015 was seen as another weak year for the iron ore market as supply rises and Chinese steel consumption remains flat, prices may be $80 to $90 a ton, according to Wood Mackenzie Ltd. The market will improve in 2016 and by 2020 prices will be significantly higher than today, Paul Gray, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in an interview yesterday.
"The Brazilian production is growing, the Australian production is growing, China is not having such big demand anymore," said Kleber Silva, head of iron ore at ArcelorMittal, the world's biggest steelmaker. "This supports prices of between $75 and $90," Silva said in an interview at an industry conference in Rio de Janeiro yesterday.
Endret 11.11.2014 17:58 av OldNick
|Pga. av kollapsen i jernmalmprisene (has falt under $70/tonn), begynner det å gå surt for flere av gigantene.
Det er nok sterkt medvirkende til at majors som BHP og VALE lufter ideen om å selge ut deler av sine basemetall-operasjoner/divisjoner for å skaffe cash og bedre lønnsomheten.
BHP roadshow for $10bn spin-off
Bridget Carter, Gretchen Friemann, The Australian
Nov. 28, 2014
BHP Billiton will launch an investor roadshow for its planned $10 billion-plus spin-off vehicle in February as large-scale fund managers start to assess how much money to allocate to the soon-to-be-divided mining behemoth.
The differing investor strategies, with some institutions targeting larger slices of BHP's core assets rather than the new diversified commodity company, is expected to result in a bookbuild at the time of the demerger.
According to sources, this move would follow the pro-rata distribution of NewCo shares to all BHP shareholders, enabling fund managers to recalibrate their weightings.
A number of large-scale investors are expected to insist the mining giant conducts an auction ahead of the split, which is scheduled for the middle of next year. However, such a move is likely to prove complex given NewCo would also be listed in South Africa, meaning the trade would span three territories.
Project River, as the demerger has been dubbed, also stirred up deep-seated investor frustrations. Earlier this year management was forced to abandon any plans to exit the London stock exchange after a string of one-on-one negotiations with fund managers.
Much of the discontent stems from the perceived mistiming on acquisitions. One large fund manager claimed the company had consistently purchased assets at the peak of the cycle, and characterised their M&A track record as "disastrous".
BHP's decision to concentrate on its major products, such as iron ore and oil, opened the door long ago to criticism that the restructure is a back-to-the-future move, with the company left holding the same asset mix it had prior to the Billiton merger.
But the demerger, which must be voted on by shareholders, has also won broad investors support.
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Brazil's Vale says mulling spinoff of base metals unit stake
Lucas Iberico Lozada, Reuters
Dec. 2, 2014
Brazil's Vale SA said on Thursday it is considering the sale of a minority stake in its base metals unit in an initial public offering, as it looks to raise funds for key projects in the midst of sliding commodity prices.
Chief Executive Murilo Ferreira told investors in New York that Vale is considering selling 30 percent to 40 percent of the division, which some analysts have valued at between $28 billion and $35 billion.
Ferreira said the company was in discussions with investors and that if the IPO went ahead it would likely first be listed in Toronto, confirming a Reuters story published late Monday.
Ferreira said the IPO would only happen if market conditions were "satisfied," and would not be sold at "any price." Vale will decide whether to go ahead with the IPO by August 2015.
The world's largest mining companies are shedding non-core assets in order to weather an era of lower prices caused by a glut in supply and slowing demand growth in key consumer China.
Vale's profit margins have suffered with the price of iron ore, which tends to account for over 80 percent of the miner's profits, down by half this year to $69.70 per tonne.
UBS estimates that it costs Vale $67 to produce a tonne of iron ore and get it to China, a tight squeeze as the company looks to complete its $20 billion Brazilian iron ore project known as S11D.
mer på link
Endret 03.12.2014 13:03 av OldNick
|Og jernmalm-prisene fortsetter å falle, og nå passeres snart den "magiske grensen" - $50 per tonn (på vei nedover).
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., the world's fourth-largest exporter, is planning further cost cuts, Chief Executive Officer Nev Power said in Hong Kong on Monday.
Iron Ore Will Breach $50 on China Demand, Citigroup Says
Jasmine Ng, Bloomberg
Mar. 23, 2015
Iron ore will slump below $50 a metric ton as steel demand in China, the world's largest producer of the alloy, remains fundamentally weak and mining companies' costs extend declines, according to Citigroup Inc.
Chinese steel demand shrank in January and February from a year earlier, the bank said in an e-mailed report on Monday that repeated its forecast for a breach of the $50 level, from $54.66 on Friday. Weaker currencies, lower energy prices and reduced freight rates will cut miners' costs further, Citigroup said.
Iron ore is headed for a record quarterly loss as slowing demand in China coupled with increased supply from Rio Tinto Group, BHP Billiton Ltd. and Vale SA spur a widening global glut. Citigroup has been among the most bearish forecasters for the steel-making commodity, correctly predicting last November that the price would drop below $60 a ton in 2015. Tougher environmental regulations in China were also hurting the outlook for steel output, Citigroup said in the report.
"We remain bearish iron ore and reiterate our expectation that prices will fall below $50," analysts including Ivan Szpakowski wrote in the nine-page report. "Real steel demand -- based on production, net exports, and changes in mill and trader inventories -- suggest significantly negative year-on-year growth for January-February."
Ore with 62 percent content at Qingdao sank on March 20 to the lowest since at least May 2008, according to daily and weekly figures from Metal Bulletin Ltd. Prices lost 23 percent this year, heading for a fifth quarterly retreat. Citigroup's full-year forecast remains at $58 a ton, Szpakowski said.
China set an economic growth target of 7 percent for this year, the least in more than 15 years, and flagged increasing headwinds that include a property slump. Premier Li Keqiang this month vowed tougher measures to combat pollution, saying that controls so far had fallen short of people's expectations.
"Perhaps the hottest topic in the Chinese market is increasing environmental pressure," Szpakowski wrote. "The revised environmental law that came into effect at the beginning of 2015 significantly strengthened enforcement mechanisms, including greatly increasing maximum fines."
Depreciating currencies and sinking energy prices helped producers to cut their costs, bolstering profit margins even as iron ore collapsed. Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., the world's fourth-largest exporter, is planning further cost cuts, Chief Executive Officer Nev Power said in Hong Kong on Monday.
"We'll continue to drive our costs down and position ourselves very strongly on the cost curve," Power said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. "It's a matter of how long before demand overtakes supply and absorbs that supply, and then we'll see a recovery in the price."
Endret 23.03.2015 10:37 av OldNick
|Og bearmarkedet for jernmalm, metaller og mineraler fortsetter bare dypere...
Citigroup sees iron ore falling below $40 on supply, demand pressure
Apr. 13, 2015
Iron ore will fall to $36 a tonne in the third quarter and stay below $40 for the rest of the year as big miners boost supply even further and China's demand declines, Citigroup said on Monday.
Spot iron ore has lost 60 percent over the past 12 months, dropping below $50 a tonne this month for the first time since a key index pricing began in 2008, amid a glut as mega miners Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton expanded production.
"We forecast incremental export production growth of over 110 million tonnes in 2015 of which 68 million tonnes alone should come from Rio Tinto," Citigroup said in its second-quarter commodities outlook.
"New Chinese mines are still coming online as well, with over 60 million tonnes in the pipeline."
Iron ore will drop to $36 a tonne in the third quarter from a projected $44 in April-June and should stand at $38 in the last quarter of the year, Citigroup said.
For the year, the steelmaking commodity will average at $45 a tonne, less than half of the 2014 average of $97, the bank said. It sees iron ore at $40 next year, $39 in 2017 and $40 in 2018.
"Iron ore demand in China is declining with steel production down year-on-year and domestic demand even worse," it said.
"Prices need to fall significantly below cash costs for a prolonged period to induce curtailments. Supply should become increasingly resilient as it becomes concentrated in large and integrated producers."
Iron ore prices for future delivery have slid 30 percent in the space of a month, and the outlook for the commodity is now more bearish than oil and more dire than ever for miners struggling to just stay in business.
Australian miner Atlas Iron Ltd became the latest casualty in a strategy by bigger iron ore producers to flood the market, saying on Friday that it will progressively suspend mining this month due to low prices.
|Mer om jernmalm, her er de siste analysene fra meglergigantene...
Selv om jernmalmprisene har løftet seg en del fra bunnen i begynnelsen av April, så er de langsiktige utsiktene elendige iflg. bl.a. Citi og Goldman.
Iron Ore Forecast Cut 32% by Citigroup as Goldman Predicts Peak
Phoebe Sedgman, Jasmine Ng, Bloomberg
May 27, 2015
Global iron ore demand will contract over the 2020s as steel consumption growth in China peaks, according to Citigroup Inc., which reduced its long-run price forecast for the raw material by 32 percent.
The long-run estimate was cut to $55 a metric ton from $81 as the world's major mining companies added more cheap supply, analysts including Ivan Szpakowski wrote in a report on Wednesday. From 2016 to 2018, prices may average $40, it said.
"The next decade is shaping up to be a complete reversal of the past decade," Citigroup said. After a period of rapid demand growth, the entry of new miners and rising costs, the years ahead will see lower demand, marginal producers forced out and major miners dominating supply growth, it said.
Iron ore lost 36 percent in the past year as Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. in Australia and Brazil's Vale SA expanded low-cost output to boost supply and cut costs, spurring a glut as China slowed. Major miners remain intent on expansions and a battle for market share is under way as they try to reduce costs faster than prices are dropping, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. Global seaborne demand will probably peak in 2016, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report on Wednesday.
"Competition in the iron ore market can only intensify," Goldman analyst Christian Lelong said in the report. "We expect the war of attrition will continue while prices gradually decline toward our $40 a ton" forecast by 2017, he wrote.
Demand for seaborne ore in China will slump to 982 million tons in 2025 from 1.18 billion tons in 2020, Citigroup forecast. Global demand for seaborne ore will drop to 1.57 billion tons from 1.68 billion over the period, it said.
"Perhaps the greatest structural challenge facing the iron ore market is the rolling over of Chinese iron ore demand, driven by declining domestic steel demand and rising scrap availability,' the bank said. ''As a result, despite growth from other emerging markets, we forecast a decline in global iron ore demand over the 2020s.''
Ore with 62 percent content at Qingdao, which bottomed at $47.08 a dry ton on April 2, rose 0.5 percent to $63.10 on Wednesday, Metal Bulletin Ltd. data showed. Prices rebounded 34 percent from this year's low, paring 2015's loss to 11 percent. They peaked in 2011 at $191.70 a ton.
The two lowest-cost producers, Rio Tinto and BHP, have a pipeline of extremely low-cost projects that should see combined production exceed 900 million tons by 2025, accounting for about 70 percent of global import demand, Citigroup said.
As Australia's bigger miners become even larger, smaller higher-cost rivals will shrink, it said. Operations at risk include capacity at Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. and BC Iron Ltd., while Atlas Iron Ltd.'s operations may close again, it said.
"We're bearish about iron ore prices in the medium-to-long term," BHP Chief Executive Officer Andrew Mackenzie said in an interview this month. Growth in demand is lagging behind the addition of low-cost supply, he said.
Citigroup's revised long-run price forecast is in line with the norm over the past century or more, according to the bank, which said that when adjusted for inflation, iron ore had averaged about $55 a ton since 1900 in 2014 dollars.
Endret 27.05.2015 19:13 av OldNick
|"We thus expect iron ore prices in the longer term to remain low relative to prices of the past decade," it said, describing the rates of more than $100 a ton seen in recent years as an aberration.
Iron-Ore Supply Cuts by Majors Just Won't Work, Says Goldman
Juan Pablo SPinetto, Jasmine Ng, Bloomberg
May 27, 2015
The world's biggest iron ore miners are right to press on with expansions into an oversupplied market as reining in supply growth would hurt efficiency and be hard to coordinate, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
"Efforts to support prices via voluntary production cuts would be counter-productive," analyst Christian Lelong wrote in a report on Wednesday. While such cutbacks are appealing in theory, any such proposal is misguided, according to Lelong.
This year's drop in prices to a decade-low spurred by the expansion of low-cost supply from BHP Billiton Ltd., Rio Tinto Group and Vale SA prompted criticism from rivals including Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., as well as political leaders. Glencore Plc Chief Executive Officer Ivan Glasenberg said this month that oversupplying markets regardless of demand was damaging the industry's credibility. The critique has been rejected by BHP Billiton and Rio.
"First, production cuts would go against the prevailing trend of improving efficiency," Lelong wrote. "Second, the required coordination among dominant producers with different incentives would be more difficult to achieve among three companies; successful cartels in oil and potash have featured only one or two dominant producers."
As so-called tier 2 iron ore producers have as much as 100 million metric tons of capacity to commission in the next couple of years, the majors would have to stomach further supply cuts to support prices over the medium term, Goldman said.
"Seaborne demand is likely to peak in 2016 and the iron ore market is becoming a zero-sum game," said Lelong. "We expect the war of attrition will continue while prices gradually decline toward our $40 a ton" forecast by 2017, he wrote.
Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao rose 0.5 percent to $63.10 a dry metric ton on Wednesday, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. While the price jumped 34 percent since reaching a decade-low of $47.08 on April 2, it remains 67 percent below a record set in 2011.
BHP rejected the idea of holding back output this month. The company's performance is dependent on being the most efficient producer, not on restraining supply, Vice President of Iron Ore Marketing Alan Chirgwin told a conference in Singapore, saying that BHP is operating in an economically rational way.
Among critics is Colin Barnett, the premier of Western Australia, where BHP and Rio operate mines in the ore-rich Pilbara. The biggest miners should slow their expansions as the signal there will be ever-increasing amounts of ore available even at lower prices is wrong, Barnett told Bloomberg in April.
Whether or not big producers shut capacity is the industry's top debate right now, said Luis Nepomuceno, a partner at Belo Horizonte, Brazil-based consulting firm LCN Mining and Metals.
"The smaller producers already shut their doors," he said by telephone. "Vale and the Australian producers take prices from the market. Nobody is supporting this situation."
|Råvarebehovet flater ut da Bejing prøver å transformere China til en mer service-orientert økonomi.
Det burde jo generere mange nye jobber når kineserne "skal begynne å klippe håret til hverandre"...
China's steel, iron, coal industry growth collapsing
Frik Els, Mining.com
June 12, 2015
A new report shows China's move away from industrialization and construction to consumption and services is happening much quicker than previously thought
China's economic growth is expected to slow to 7% in 2015 and may even slip below that - the slowest pace since 1990.
While slower overall growth has long been expected, the transformation of China from an investment-led to a consumption driven economy appears to be happening much quicker that previously thought.
After the years of breakneck infrastructure investment, urbanization and industrialization that created the supercycle in commodity demand, Beijing is now shifting focus of policy to the services-orientated sectors of the economy.
A chart from oil giant BP's Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 report shows how the energy intensive sectors of the Chinese economy "virtually collapsed".
This strategy of curbing the once red-hot property sector and placing restrictions on heavy industry also ties in with the government's fight against pollution after years of devastating environmental damage.
And much of the country's so-called war on pollution is centred on coal where the change in direction is just as startling.
Spencer Dale, BP's chief economist, commented that China's rapid urbanization and industrialization turned coal into the fastest growing fossil fuel over the first decade or so of this century.
"And it was equally true in 2014 as Chinese demand braked sharply and coal became the slowest growing fossil fuel," says Dale.
Global coal consumption grew by just 0.4% (15 million tonnes oil equivalent or Mtoe) - its slowest rate since the Asian crisis in 1998 - while production fell by 0.7% or 28 Mtoe.
Dale says "perhaps the single most striking number in the whole of this year's Stats Review is China's coal consumption, which is estimated to have essentially stalled in 2014."
China, which burns almost as much coal as the rest of the world combined, saw only a 0.1% (1 Mtoe) increase, compared to an average growth rate of almost 6% over the past 10 years. Chinese coal production was even weaker, falling by 2.6% or 49 Mtoe.
The world's top mining firms have already started to adjust their strategies to the new reality.
Andrew Mackenzie, CEO of BHP Billiton, told a conference in Beijing in June last year he expects rising Chinese demand for materials with more consumer uses, such as copper, while greater food consumption could lead to more demand for the soil nutrient potash:
"We see a Chinese economy gradually shifting from construction to consumption, and so, we will transition," said Mackenzie adding that "We imagine we will continue to creep our exports of steelmaking materials like metallurgical coal and iron ore, but we're much more likely to make major investments in what we feel are the next phase of China's growth in energy and in food."
Despite the moderating growth it's worth remembering that China would still be adding some $700 billion to gross domestic product (and that's excluding Hong Kong) this year.
That's greater than the size of mainland China's entire economy in 1994 when growth rates peaked at a stunning 30% year-on-year. $700 billion is also bigger than Switzerland's economy and worth almost 2 South Africas and 4 New Zealands.
It may be a different beast, but China's growth story is not over.
|Tungt for jernmalm og stål i China.
Samme story som tidligere, frykt for svekket vekst.
Iron ore price getting crushed again
Frik Els, Mining.com
July 6, 2015
The price of iron ore gapped down again on Monday as declines in fixed investment and steel prices in top consumer China cloud the outlook for the steelmaking raw material.
The benchmark 62% Fe import price including freight and insurance at the Chinese port of Tianjin lost $2.10 or 3.9% to $52.00 a tonne according to data provided by The SteelIndex, the lowest since April 21.
Benchmark spot prices are now barely more than $5 above record lows hit the beginning of April and down 14% in one short week.
The rally in iron ore was fuelled by declining stockpiles in China where steelmakers consume more than 70% of the 1.3 billion tonne seaborne trade.
But after falling for 10 weeks in a row, port stocks climbed again last week to just below 82 million tonnes.
While declining stockpiles seemed to indicate stronger demand, the disconnect between steel and iron ore prices pointed to underlying weakness in the market.
Steel prices continued to fall on Monday with the most-traded October rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closing at a record low of 2,027 yuan ($326) per tonne on Monday, down a whopping 5% in a single session.
Steel prices have been hurt by a combination of a government crackdown on the country's most polluting industries and declining fixed investment.
So far Beijing's economic stimulus measures have had little effect and a rout on Chinese stock markets is also damaging investor confidence.
And it could get worse before it gets better.
Reuters quotes Bernstein analyst Paul Gait as saying "we've not necessarily seen the lows (for the year) and short-term momentum is clearly negative, but sooner or later . probably by the fourth quarter . demand for steel will recover because of Chinese policy.
Led by Vale (NYSE:VALE) with a 4.5% fall shares in the big three producers all declined in New York trade on Monday wiping billions from their combined market value of some $230 billion.
American depository receipts of BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) lost 4% and 2.2% respectively bringing year to date market worth declines at the Anglo-Australian giants to double digits.
Hardest hit has been Fortescue Metals Group (ASX:FMG) which dropped 5.8% in value on the Sydney Stock Exchange on Monday. The world's number four producer is down nearly 40% so far this year.
Shanghai rebar tumbles 5 pct to record low, drags down iron ore
Ruby Lian, David Stanway, Reuters
July 6, 2015
* Rebar, iron ore futures hit daily downward limit
* Big fall in billet surprises market, further hitting sentiment
* Spot iron ore falls to lowest level since April 21
SHANGHAI/LONDON - Chinese rebar futures slumped 5 percent to hit a record low on Monday on expectations that demand in the world's top producer is weakening further, prompting mills to cut output and reduce consumption of raw material iron ore.
The most traded October rebar futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 2,027 yuan ($326.54) a tonne, the lowest since the contract launched in 2009, hitting its daily downside limit.
A sluggish economy and a property downturn in China has hit steel demand and prices, with steel mills suffering growing losses and curtailing output.
"The market fundamentals are too weak. Mills are making losses while traders don't want to stock," said Li Wenjing, an
|an analyst at Industrial Futures in Shanghai. "An increase in iron ore port inventories last Friday and a big decline in billet prices have dampened the market today."
Iron ore stocks at 42 Chinese ports rose to 81.97 million tonnes on Friday, up 1.7 percent from the previous Friday, data from industry consultancy Umetal showed.
mer på link
Som for Al, så øker også kinesiske stålprodusenter eksporten pga. en fallende innenlandsk ståletterspørsel.
En indikator for krympende etterspørsel innen indistri- og eiendoms-sektorene?
China Steel Flood Deepens, Cutting Earnings, Fanning Trade Rows
Martin Ritchie, Jasmine Ng, Bloomberg
Aug. 9, 2015
China is shipping ever more steel into world markets as its economy slows, leading to lower prices, reduced earnings at global producers and more trade disputes.
Mills in the country that produces half the world's steel are maintaining output as domestic demand falters, exporting the surplus. Overseas sales surged 9.5 percent to 9.73 million metric tons in July, the highest level in six months, customs data released on Saturday showed. Exports expanded 27 percent to 62.13 million tons in the first seven months, the highest ever for the period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
China's shipments are about the same as output in Japan, the world's second-biggest producer, World Steel Association data show, and Credit Suisse Group AG says they that have reached extraordinary levels. Citigroup Inc. raised its forecast for net steel shipments from China to 100 million tons this year from 79 million in 2014, according to a report on Monday.
"It's because of weakness in domestic steel demand, which has led mills to push their excess out into the international market," said Ivan Szpakowski, commodities strategist at Citigroup. "That's something which is not going to change."
Chinese mills face declining domestic demand for the first time in a generation amid a property slump. Steel demand will drop this year and next to extend the first annual contraction since 1995, the World Steel Association said in April.
Chinese mills are extending maintenance programs in light of the weak demand, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said in a commodities report on Monday. In addition, some mills around Beijing may be ordered to shut capacity to clean up the air for a parade in Beijing in early September, it said.
The steel shipments were a bright spot in the country's trade data, as China's overall exports in fell 8.3 percent last month from a year earlier in dollar terms. That was below the estimate for a 1.5 percent decline in a Bloomberg survey and compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in June.
Chinese imports of iron ore climbed 15 percent in July to 86.1 million tons, the highest level since December, as mills in the world's largest buyer replenished inventories that had fallen to the lowest level in 19 months. Purchases were little changed at 539 million tons in the first seven months.
Global steelmakers are battling lower earnings as prices slump. Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp. forecast the first drop in full-year earnings in three years last month, while U.S. Steel Corp. posted a quarterly loss. South Korea's Posco reported a profit slump and announced plans to cut staff.
Prices are retreating. The average U.S. rate of hot-rolled coil, used in buildings and automobiles, fell 33 percent to $456 a ton in the second quarter, according to The Steel Index. In China, rebar sank to the lowest level since 2003 last month.
The slump may eventually push Chinese producers to cut back on production and exports. The collapse in Chinese prices is set to push already stretched local steel mills even further into the red, curtailing production and exports, Lakshmi Mittal, chief executive officer of
Endret 12.08.2015 18:46 av OldNick
|Presset på high-cost produsentene av jernmalm fortsetter med uforminsket styrke.
Ser ut som om gigantene prøver å produsere hverandre inn i konkurs, og noe må til slutt gi.
Kanskje markedet (les: etterspørselen) vil hjelpe til på balansen etterhvert?
Superbillig jernmalm og stål bør jo gi stimulanse?
Citi says Vale will open big cost gap on Fortescue Metals
Sydney Morning Herald
Despite Fortescue Metals Group's race to crunch its production costs, the miner will inevitably become the marginal producer of the large iron ore players once Brazil's Vale brings its new mega expansion project online, Citigroup says.
Both Vale and Fortescue need a benchmark price of about $US40 a tonne to break even while BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto require about $US25 a tonne, Citigroup analyst Alexander Hacking said. Those break evens - the price at which the miners are not making or losing cash - have been calculated on an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation basis (EBITDA).
Within three years, after Vale's mega expansion in the Amazon called S11D comes online, the Brazilian giant should narrow that gap per tonne to about $US10 with Rio and BHP, while "opening up a clear $US5 to $US10 a tonne advantage over Fortescue," he said.
Vale's $US16.5 billion ($23.2 billion) S11D project is set to come online next year. Vale is also retiring high-cost supply and replacing it with production that will lower its average production cost.
Market theory suggests that, should the market drift further into oversupply, the highest-cost major will ultimately set the floor price for iron ore.
It is a close contest to avoid being the highest-cost major in iron ore.
However, Fortescue chief executive Nev Power has told The Australian Financial Review that it is "complete nonsense" that the miner is battling Vale to avoid becoming the marginal large producer.
The Fortescue boss said the miner is "way off" becoming the swing producer and there is a 400 million or 500 million tonne "buffer" of high-cost production to protect it, in a conversation with the Financial Review in July.
Iron ore has recovered slightly to trade at about $US55 a tonne, after hitting 10-year lows of about $US44 a tonne in July.
Sizeable gap to open
Mr Hacking was confident that Vale would open a sizeable gap with Fortescue because the Brazilian real continues to devalue more than than the Australian dollar and Vale continues to add to its low cost capacity.
"Vale appears to be executing an operational turnaround in iron ore and valuation is approaching floor levels on a company that will survive in any price environment."
In the six months ended June 30, Vale narrowed the gap with Rio and BHP but Citi's Mr Hacking said "the bad news is that Vale is still about $US15 a tonne less profitable than the two Australian majors, mostly due to higher freight costs to Asia, and neck-and-neck with Fortescue, which has made similar improvements".
Fortescue says it's all-in landed cost to China is $US39 a tonne, slightly ahead of Vale, which is about $US41.50.
Analysts and investors say despite Fortescue's race to cut costs, the price will simply chase it down if it becomes the highest-cost of the large producers, which include Vale, Rio and BHP, and newcomers Roy Hill and Anglo American.
UBS mining analyst Glyn Lawcock has told the Financial Review that "the concern the market has, is that the all-in cash delivered price that FMG needs to be cash-neutral is ultimately going to be the dictator of where the long-term price settles."
But Mr Power said; "it is completely irrelevant whether we are $US1 tonne more expensive, or lower cost, than Vale.
"There is about 400 million tonnes of higher-cost [than Fortescue] supply still being produced and supplied into the market, so how do we
Endret 02.09.2015 18:20 av OldNick
|Jernmalm er som "kanarifuglen i gruven", indikatoren for gruvebransjen.
Nå har de "3 (+ 1) store" (BHP, RIO, VALE og FMG.AX) agert som OPEC prøver i oljemarkedet, å overprodusere og presse prisene så lavt at de aller svakeste eksport-gruvene i andre deler av verden vil legge ned.
Og det ser vi går på stumpene løs nå.
Jernmalprisen vaker nå under US$40/tonn, og det spås snitt-priser rundt US$35-38 de neste 3 årene, og med dipp ned på $20-tallet.
Iron ore bear case puts price at $US28 a tonne, says Citigroup
Jasmine Ng, Bloomberg
Jan. 15, 2016
After oil sank into the $US20s this week, will iron ore follow suit?
"There's a strong possibility that iron ore falls below $US30 in 2016," Citigroup head of Asia commodity research Ivan Szpakowski said in an interview on Thursday after the bank cut price forecasts through to 2018 in a report. In the first half, "the biggest pressure is actually from the demand side. It's actually going to come from weak steel demand in China", said Szpakowski.
The raw material is seen at $US36 this year, 12 per cent lower than previously forecast, and $US35 in 2017 and 2018, down from $US39 and $US40, analysts including Szpakowski wrote in the January 14 report. The base-case forecast over a three-year horizon was cut to $US35 from $US40, while the bear-case was put at $US28.
Iron ore has been routed as the world's largest miners including Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton in Australia and Brazil's Vale expanded low-cost output while demand growth stalled in China. Lower costs including freight and energy and weakening currencies in producer nations are enabling suppliers to reduce their break-even rates and withstand lower prices. Costs had fallen more than expected, the bank said.
"Given the market's need for further curtailments, we see the evolution of costs as one of the two most important factors for the iron ore market, alongside Chinese policy decisions affecting steel demand," the bank said in the report. "We see challenges for iron ore ahead."
Ore with 62 per cent content delivered to Qingdao rose 1.8 per cent to $US40.22 a dry ton on Thursday after slumping 4.1 per cent to $US39.51 a day earlier, according to Metal Bulletin. The steel-making commodity bottomed at $US38.30 on December 11, a record in daily prices dating back to May 2009.
Steel output in China will probably shrink 2.6 per cent this year as local consumption weakens and mills encounter stiffer opposition to exports, Szpakowski estimated. Supply fell 2.2 per cent to 738.38 million tons in the first 11 months of last year, according to official data. China, which makes about half the world's steel, is set to report full-year output on January 19.
"Under our bear case, we believe medium-term prices would need to fall to around $US28 a ton, primarily due to assumptions of weaker oil and export-country currencies," Citigroup said in the report, with the bull case for iron ore at $US45. "These mid- term forecasts represent average levels, with prices expected to fluctuate below and above these levels."
Rio shares fell 1.8 per cent to $38.85 in Sydney, the lowest close since 2009, as BHP climbed 0.7 per cent to snap three days of losses. In Brazil, biggest supplier Vale has sunk 31 per cent this year after a 47 per cent loss in 2015.
Capital Economics raised the possibility of sub-$US30 iron ore this year in a forecast made at the end of 2015, saying that the commodity may slump into the $US20s in the first half as supplies rise, followed by a rally.
Endret 15.01.2016 13:36 av OldNick
|Goldman argumenterer med at gruvebransjen (kanskje noen sektorer?) vil ta mye lenger tid å rebalansere enn energi/olje-sektoren, hovedsaklig pga. to forhold:
- Olje er flytede og trenger (hovedsaklig) tette tanker for å kunne lagres. Malm, konsentrater og metaller kan lagres nesten hvor som helst.
- Innen noen sektorer innenfor gruvebransjen kan gruver få en negativ verdi pga. stadig strengere miljø-krav, med medfølgende høyere kostnader med å stenge ned en gruve. Hvis ikke dette er satt av i balansen (mange land krever avsetninger), kan netto-verdien bli negativ.
Goldman: Here's Why Miners Have It Worse Than Oil Producers
Tracy Alloway, Bloomberg
Feb. 1, 2016
Mining companies seem to have taken those lyrics to heart, opting to maintain production as long as their cash reserves allow and in effect delay a long-awaited resolution in the supply-and-demand balance of dry commodities, according to a new note from Goldman Sachs & Co.
The nature of the metals and mining business-legal considerations combined with an ability to store excess supply for the long haul-means the industry faces a longer shakeout than in the energy sector.
"Many of the [mining] structures are no longer assets but rather liabilities due to environmental regulations," write Goldman analysts led by Head of Commodities Research Jeffrey Currie. "This suggests that, in order to delay the environmental costs of mine rehabilitation, the penalties associated with employee layoff and non-performance of commercial obligations, owners will operate the facilities until they run out of cash and are obliged to suspend operations."
The trend is particularly true of U.S. coal miners, according to the analysts, and underscored by recent failed auctions of mining assets.
"[Last] week we saw Alpha Natural Resources cancel an auction of 35 coal mines at the last minute due to a lack of interest, illustrating the fact that some mining assets burdened with outstanding liabilities and negative margins are left without any residual value," Goldman notes.
Fundamental differences between metals and energy businesses have resulted in lower volatility for prices of gold, aluminum, and similar dry commodities compared with energy-related products such as natural gas, electricity, and crude, the Goldman analysts say.
"Theoretically, once an energy market breaches storage capacity, prices need to collapse below cash costs to immediately re-balance supply with demand. In practice, however, operational stress in energy is a local, not global concept as breaching storage capacity happens most likely in landlocked locations, but it does whittle away at the global supply overhang," the analysts write. "In contrast, metals can be 'piled high' in low-cost locations almost anywhere in the world with far greater density, i.e. dollar per square foot, than energy."
To illustrate the point, Goldman calculates that $1 billion worth of gold would, at current spot prices, fit into a generously sized bedroom closet, while $1 billion worth of oil would take up 17 very large crude carriers, each with a capacity of more than a quarter of a million deadweight metric tons.
With an estimated 12 months of cash reserves left for some U.S. coal miners, financial stress needs to deepen before the supply-demand balance even begins to resolve itself.
"This leads us to forecast that oil prices will outperform the base and bulk commodities once the current inflection phase has run its course, likely at some point in the second-half of 2016," Goldman concludes. "On a macro basis this also suggests that some of the slowdown in global manufacturing maybe more permanent, as high cost producers of capex commodities shutter facilities on a more permanent basis, particularly in the west
Endret 02.02.2016 17:42 av OldNick
|Råvareprisene har løftet seg også utenom olje/energi de siste ukene/månedene, hovedsaklig pga. positive signaler fra China, men spekulativ handel i futureskontrakter sies å ha bidratt, noe Goldman Sachs bekymrer seg for kan skape bobler (er det en boble de ikke er ansvarlig for å har kunne gjøre profitt på?).
Goldman Says China's Iron Speculation 'Concerns Us the Most'
Jasmine Ng, Bloomberg
April 26, 2016
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has expressed its concern about the surge in speculative trading in iron ore futures in China, saying that daily volumes are now so large that they sometimes exceed annual imports.
The increase in futures trading in the world's largest importer was among factors that have lifted prices, according to a report from analysts Matthew Ross and Jie Ma received on Tuesday. Iron ore volumes traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are up more than 400 percent from a year ago, they said.
"While increased fixed-asset investment in China, a bring-forward of steel production (ahead of a government curtailment) and mining disruptions help to explain the strong rally in the iron ore price, the one driver that concerns us the most is the increased speculation in the Chinese iron ore futures market," they wrote.
Iron ore has rallied in 2016, buttressed by the explosion in speculative trading in China's commodity futures markets as mills boosted monthly output to a record. The spike in raw materials trading in China has stunned global markets, according to Morgan Stanley, which cited the jump in local activity in iron ore as well as steel. The increase has prompted exchange authorities in Asia's top economy including Dalian to tighten rules on the trading of some contracts.
"There have been two days in the past month where futures volumes have been greater than the total amount of iron ore that China actually imported for the whole of 2015 (950 million tons)," the Goldman analysts wrote. To slow trading activity, the Dalian exchange has announced it would be increasing margin requirements and transaction costs on iron ore futures, they said.
Iron ore futures have rallied 40 percent on the Dalian exchange this year after gaining 16 percent last week. The most-active contract dropped as much as 4.4 percent on Tuesday after the exchange doubled trading fees. The benchmark spot price for ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao fell 5 percent to $62.78 a dry ton on Tuesday, up 44 percent this year, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd.
Other raw materials in China were also in retreat on Tuesday. Coking coal futures, which trade in Dalian, reversed early gains to lose as much as 5 percent to 777.5 yuan ($120) a ton. After bottoming in November, prices are still 38 percent higher so far this year.
The higher fees are part of an expanded effort to curb excessive speculation, the Dalian exchange said on Monday, adding that it has increased supervision and doesn't rule out taking more stringent measures if needed. The moves follow its decision last week to raise minimum margin rates.
Goldman has said it's bearish on iron ore as it expects a return to global oversupply on increased output from mines. The current rally is unsustainable, the New York-based bank said last week in an interview and a report, forecasting prices will probably slump to $35 a ton by the end of 2016.
|Toppsjefen for verdens største gruveselskap, BHP Billiton, sa på en pressekonferanse tirsdag at han nå trodde fallet i råvareprisene er over for nå. Jernmalmprisen har falt fra 190 dollar i 2011 via 40 dollar i vår før den har stabilisert seg på 60 dollar i sommer. Meglerhuset Morgan Stanley tror imidlertid at jernmalmprisen kan bli nesten halvert i fjerde kvartal. (Kilde: FA/Xi)
|For kinesiske småinvestorer, som er villige til å ta en høy risiko, har råvaremarkedet blitt en ny favoritt. Prisen på jernmalm har i løpet av et knapt år steget fra nesten 50 dollar for et tonn til over 80 dollar på mandag.
De siste døgnet har imidlertid prisene på jernmalm, stål, kopper, sink og aluminium falt kraftig.
Årsaken er Kina. Dalian Commodity Exchange har nemlig økt egenkapitalkravene ved marginhandel for kinesiske råvareinvestorer som investerer i råvarer - for å unngå nye bobler. (Kilde: DN/Xi)
|NHO har nok bedt NGU "resirkulere" rapporten de gav ut for 4 par år siden (se OldNick #13820 lenger tilbake i denne topic).
Boyd m.fl.: Mineral- og metallressurser i Norge: "In situ" verdi av metallforekomster av nasjonal betydning (pdf), NGU-rapport nr. 2012.048
Og så gi den et politiks korrekt "grønnskjær". Det skulle øke apetitten blant politikere og andre "opinionsdannere" slik tiden er nå i Norge.
Oljefondet er verdt 7.380 milliarder kroner - norsk stein verdt 8.000 milliarder
En rapport NHO presenterer, viser at den norske steinrøysa har verdier som kan gi 8.000 milliarder kroner i inntekter
Bjørn Haugan, E24.no
Norges geologiske undersøkelse (NGU) har laget rapporten «Mineraler for det grønne skiftet» i forbindelse med NHOs årskonferanse på nyåret.
Den viser at påviste og antatte ressurser i bakken representerer verdier for 2.500 milliarder kroner.
Lenger ned i saken kan du se på kart om det er gull eller gråstein i ditt nabolag.
Det er veldig spennende, fordi det i stor grad er mineraler som kan brukes i mobiler, elbiler, fly og vindmøller, som kan bidra til det grønne skiftet vi er nødt til å få til, hvis vi skal nå våre klimamål, sier NHO-sjef Kristin Skogen Lund.
Bearbeidingsverdien er mye høyere.
Jeg skal ikke si at den norske gråsteinen er den nye oljen - det skal jeg ikke. Men bearbeidingsverdien av mineraler for 2.500 milliarder kroner, er anslått til om lag 8.000 milliarder, sier hun.
Oljefondet er i dag på 7.380 milliarder kroner.
Den norske steinrøysa er undervurdert?
Ja, vi snakker lattermildt om av vi skal tilbake til steinalderen. Men det kan faktisk ta oss inn i en grønn fremtid: Den fornybare revolusjonen gjennom blant annet elbiler, solceller og vindkraft forutsetter at det skaffes materialer som kan brukes. Oversikten vi presenterer i dag, viser at Norge har en fantastisk mulighet til å utvikle industribedrifter og arbeidsplasser for å utvikle mineraler det er stor etterspørsel etter, sier hun og går gjennom noen av de mange prosjektene (Se kartet).
Det kan bli støy
Ved siden av å kunne bidra til miljøvennlig produkter, har de fleste av disse prosjektene noe annet til felles: De ligger i distriktene. Det er en historisk mulighet til å motvirke fraflytting og å skape arbeidsplasser lokalt.
Mange er omstridt fordi det ikke bare kommer arbeidsplasser, men også gir sår i naturen og omstridte deponier av slam?
Miljøaspektene er åpenbare og det kan bli støy av dette, men det får vi ta. Vi vet at utvinning ofte bidrar til innhugg i naturen og behov for deponi. Vi opplever at mange av stedene med stort potensial ligger på mindre steder, og at det er lett å si nei til ofte usikre investeringer, av hensyn til naturen, sier Skogen Lund.
Åpner for penger til kommunene
Men vi mener det er viktig å ta den debatten, fordi det dreier seg om så store uutnyttede ressurser som kan bidra både til arbeidsplasser i distriktene og til et grønt skifte.
Hvor store CO₂-kutt kan det gi?
Det er ikke så lett å beregne, fordi det i stor grad er materialer som vil bli eksportert til produsenter som utvikler miljøvennlige produkter.
Er ikke erfaringen at det ofte er internasjonale storselskaper som kommer inn og graver ut inntekter, uten at det skaper veldig store verdier i Norge?
Ja, det er en viktig debatt. Det skapes uansett lokale jobber, men vi mener i tillegg det må...
Endret 15.12.2016 16:52 av OldNick
|vurderes om det er riktig at noe av for eksempel selskapsskatten kan bli igjen lokalt, noe som vil gi kommunene direkte inntekter.
Du kommer ikke utenom at gruvedrift skaper lokal motstand?
Nei, men vi trenger å ta en nasjonal debatt, fordi det er så mange muligheter. Deponi, for eksempel, dreier seg i all hovedsak om stein. Den kunnskapen vi har i dag, viser at man snakker om små eller ingen skader på lang sikt. Dette er som sagt ikke vår nye olje, men det kan bidra til å tette igjen verdiskapingsgapet etter oljen og gassen.
Grus og gull
Hun trekker frem et annet miljøelement:
Transport av grus og pukk står for 20 prosent av all tungtransport på norske veier: Å organisere kjøringen, slik at pukk hentes mest mulig lokalt, er et meget viktig miljøtiltak.
Og selv om det svært sjelden er gull i noe som glimrer, er det flere gullforekomster i Norge, som har potensial til utnyttelse.
Rapporten forteller at en mobiltelefon inneholder 0,02 gram gull. Hvis ett års Iphone-salg skulle tas ut i en gruve, ville det utgjort et hull tilsvarende en seks kilometer lang biltunnel, sier hun.
Det er store verdier i norske fjell. Mineralene som ligger her gir muligheter for lønnsomme arbeidsplasser og økonomisk vekst, sier næringsminister Monica Mæland (H).
Hun sier regjeringen har lagt til rette for store mineralprosjekter.
Vi sier ja til de store, viktige prosjektene som har ligget på vent lenge. Samtidig er det viktig at veksten i næringen skal være bærekraftig.
Det er stort potensial, men også stor sjanse for mange lokale miljøprotester?
Vi vil fortsette å stille strenge krav og sikre miljøovervåkning. Vi tenker kanskje ikke over det i hverdagen, men mineraler inngår i alt fra sement og papir til medisinske implantater. Tilgang på mineraler er også en viktig forutsetning for å lykkes med det grønne skifte, sier hun.
Av 55 land vil kun Norge og Tyrkia tillate dumping av gruveavfall i sjøen
Naturvernforbundet mener regjeringen raserer fjordene
Klimaminsteren mener deponi på land ikke er bedre
Bjørn Haugan, VG.no
En interessant oversikt det der OldNick
Jeg for min del vil kanskje rette søkelyset på sjeldne jordarter (REE) og feltet i Ulefoss/Telemark og FEN feltet. REE danner grunnlaget for den grønne energirevolusjon (hmm.. er innforstått med dine meninger om den saken).
REE inneholder 17 ulike grunnstoffer men i denne sammenheng og når det gjelder volumbehov, snakker vi om først og fremst om grunnstoffene neodymium og dysprosium som inngår i power magnets Byggestenen som muliggjør kompakte motorer/generatorer da fysiske dimensjoner reduseres. En militær drone ville ikke kunne fly uten power magnets. I en vindmølle av rimelig størrelse, inngår hele 2 tonn neodymium. Knappheten på disse grunnstoffene er allerede fremtredende men med gigantplanene som de store bilprodusentene har mht. el-biler, vil knappheten forsterkes.
Her et innslag fra Telemarksavisa 5. september i år
Her en oversikt over hva som inngår i en moderne miljøvennlig bil (REE)
Endret 18.12.2016 12:29 av Provence
|re. provence #9466,
Interessant artikkel du la inn.
Ja, det finnes faktisk mye REE-mineral forekomster i Norge, og FEN-feltet er det absolutt største, kjente.
Det har de siste 10-15 årene vært en god del forskning på denne forekomsten, hovedsaklig gjort gjennom Alf Bjørseth's SCATEC sfære (som REETec AS).
Men, REE Minerals AS, som omtales over er en annen gruppe som ser ut til å være lokalt basert i Telemark. Alt dette er i unoterte selskaps-konstellasjoner, slik at man må inn i disse for evt. å investere.
Nå er REE-produksjon i større skala langt unna i Norge, og etter det jeg skjønner, er FEN's mineralene spesielt kompliserte å utvinne, hovedsaklig pga. problematisk geologi. Men, det ser ut REETec AS (Scatec) allerede har salg av REE's, men det er nok i små tonnager.
Det foregår forskning på disse med avanserte metoder, det er jeg kjent med. Foreløpig er jo luften mye gått ut av REE-boom'en som ble støttet av tilbakeholdelse av REE-produkter fra China's monopol for noen år siden. Men, den kan komme tilbake.
Problemet med REE-mineraler er ikke at de er sjeldne, men det er få forekomster hvor de er tilstrekkelig konsentrert til å tillate økonomisk utvinning. I mange gruver finnes de som biprodukter, men i for lave konsentrasjoner og havner i avfalls-strømmer som går til deponi.
I REE Minerals AS finnes vi kjente personer fra gruvemiljøet i rådgivningsgruppen.
De største, globale og "diversifiserte" gruveselskapene ønsker å bli mer lik Glencore, et selskap som er tunge og har kontroll med alle deler av mineral-industriene, fra leting, utvikling, produksjon fra gruve til ferdig raffinert metaller, til markedsføring og salg, samt en stor tradingbusiness hvor de handler, finansierer og har kontrollen med logistikken også.
Glencore in Society - How our products contribute to societies everyday needs
Miners sharpen marketing strategies in hunt for marginal gains
Barbara Lewis, Gavin Maguire, Reuters
Dec. 20, 2016
London/Singapore - The world's big mining groups are sharpening their marketing strategies in a post-crisis scramble for even tiny increases in profit, seeking marginal gains much like cycling teams in the Tour de France or Olympic velodrome.
Anglo American, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are using varying tactics to boost profitability on commodities such as copper, iron ore and coal, as the traditional model of simply producing more is under strain and the recovery from a deep downturn remains tentative.
The one thing in common is a philosophy championed by cycling coach Dave Brailsford: achieve marginal gains in as many areas as possible and the overall performance of the rider - or in this case the business - will improve significantly.
BHP and Rio Tinto, the biggest miners, have both appointed executives this year to extract the maximum value from every stage of their business process, from the mine to the consumer.
For BHP and Anglo American, the strategies include commodity trading - although on a far smaller scale than their rival Glencore, which began life as a pure trader and says income from this business helped it through the commodity slump.
Overall, the object is to help cushion the mining groups from the kind of extreme price swings that the market has experienced in recent years.
"I am very confident that the culture changes we're building on will allow us to move away from this boom and bust mentality," Arnoud Balhuizen, BHP's new head of marketing and supply, told Reuters.
Endret 21.12.2016 09:46 av OldNick
|The strategic shift, which began with the price crash that knocked billions off the miners' earnings in 2015, has gained momentum this year despite a revival on commodity markets.
"Prices have lifted, but the world will remain a very competitive place and everybody will still be looking for that extra dollar," one industry source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Even after investors piled back into mining stocks this year, making them the biggest gainers on the London's FTSE index, their prices are still barely back to where they were around the start of 2015.
Chris LaFemina, a managing director of research at Jefferies investment bank, said the new strategies were necessary but they would not transform the miners' fortunes.
"In a bull market, companies would not have been worried about incremental margins through marketing, but now everyone is focused on getting the maximum price and they can get a little bit of extra margin over a lot of tonnes," he said. "Small changes are important at the bottom of the cycle and it still matters, but it's not going to change the investment case."
CUTTING OUT MIDDLE MEN
Balhuizen, who was appointed to his newly-created position in May after more than a decade with BHP, said a traditional focus on selling large volumes through standard contracts may have been good for consumers, but not for producers.
Following zealous cost-cutting over the last two years, the next stage was to assess every stage of the value chain. That led to the conclusion that the best price could be achieved if brokers were cut out, long-term contracts torn up and specific products delivered to specific consumers.
It's an approach that echoes Glencore's use of its network of an estimated 7,000 customers to deliver a tailored service to clients willing to pay a premium over market prices.
Balhuizen offered the example of coal, the price of which has surged this year after steep falls in 2015. "You don't want to sell too much coal to someone who doesn't value it, because he won't pay you for it," he said.
Mining groups have traditionally steered clear of speculative commodity trading as a source of income, reluctant to take on the levels of risk involved. This contrasts to Glencore, which remains an active trader despite becoming a major producer when it merged with mining group Xstrata in 2013.
However, Balhuizen signaled a shift at BHP. The group gives no figures for how many marketing staff it employs, but he said traders - which he defined as "people who buy material on their own account and take risk" - were among them.
Anglo American also does some pure trading. While the group does not disclose volumes, it has said it met a goal set in 2014 that marketing activities should contribute $400 million in core earnings by 2016.
This remains modest compared with Glencore, which expects trading to account for $2.5-$2.7 billion of core earnings for the full year.
Outside trading, Anglo American has also boosted platinum margins by as much as 5 percent. This followed the ending of a deal under which Johnson Matthey sold all its platinum directly to customers. Instead of selling at a discount to the spot market, it now it sells at a slight premium.
Rio Tinto says it does not trade but under its CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques, who took over in July, it has a new division to analyze the group's business and extract value at every opportunity.
Steve McIntosh, who was appointed group executive of growth and innovation in July, told analysts in December the aim was to span "the entire value chain from ore body to market" in pursuit of the extra dollar.
Rio's traditional big earner, accounting for roughly 60 percent of core profit, has been iron ore, a high margin, bulk product.
Big four iron ore miners
Endret 21.12.2016 09:48 av OldNick
|However, Jacques has put an emphasis on copper. This needs to be processed, and Rio is increasingly blending copper from a variety of sources as the best grade material is used up.
Rio began buying copper from other sources to fill its smelter in the U.S. state of Utah because the quality of its own ores had declined. But the volumes are tiny - a few hundred thousand tonnes - compared with Glencore's copper trade of around 3.1 million tonnes per year.
While the strategies of Glencore and the rest overlap, the big difference is the level of trading risk that the miners are willing to take on.
Glencore has presented its trading business as the opposite of risky in that it was a source of cash and stable earnings even when commodity prices were crashing.
Glencore's business model
Trading does not involve the huge capital expenditure and asset depreciation of mining, but needs credit and can go wrong.
Glencore relies on complex funding arrangements with around 60 banks and sometimes investors are wary, with its shares among the biggest losers during the crash of 2015. But when all goes well, its trading can generate cash even in the deepest slump.
Ultimately, the risk could be for Glencore, as more players scramble for dwindling margins. However, Glencore investors say it would take years for rivals to steal significant market share, and any gains for the others are helpful but only incremental.
"It's extremely difficult to compete with someone who has the key relationships, logistics and infrastructure in place already," David Neuhauser, managing director at Livermore Partners, a Glencore shareholder, said.
"As with any competitive situation, it could potentially erode margins or volume, but I'd be hard pressed to see how they could lose out to the others."
Det var ingen tilfeldighet til at jeg kom inn på FEN feltet og REE. Jeg kjenner godt til selskapet REE Minerals AS siden jeg har vært aksjonær der siden 2013. Selskapet har ca. 100 aksjonærer og med basis i lokalområdet.
FEN feltet ligger sentralt til i en historisk utdødd vulkan (600 mill år tilbake i tid). Sannsynligvis er det selve vulkanen som har dannet grunnlaget for REE forekomstene. Det er derfor fylkesgeologen Dahlgren vil ha midler til å bore dypt, 1000 meter. Og siden vi snakker om en utdødd vulkan, strekker forekomsten seg sannsynligvis mange kilometer ned i dypet (størknet magma kollonne)
Hva REE minerals har gjennomført, er 2 borekampanjer. I et område på 800x200x300 meter, har man avdekket 2 mill. tonn REE som gir anslaget for verdiene her. Men som selskapet selv fremfører, området som er undersøkt er open ended i alle retninger. Man kjenner ikke til randsonene og begrensningene. Og det merkeligste av alt, man snakker om kalkstein, en bergart man finner i sedimentære områder. Geologien er faktisk ikke komplisert mtp. utvinning. Selskapet snakker sågar om å kunne bli en lavkostnadsprodusent.
Så har du en rak motsetning til dette, Tasman Metals som har erhvervet seg et område i Norra Kærr i Sverige. Siden man i EU har fokus på kritiske metaller, har EU opprettet en egen komite ERECON og Tasman har benyttet seg av midler fra det organet. Men slik det nå ser ut til, er geologien der temmelig vanskelig å håndtere. For høy kostnad (tror vi snakker om 40 USD/kg i en cocktail hvor alle elementer inngår - de 17 grunnstoffene - basket value)
Forekomsten i Sverige er av type en åre i berggrunnen og man må gjennomføre et finmasket boreprogram for å avdekke denne. Helt forskjellig fra hva som er tilfellet i FEN hvor man snakker om en homogen sone.
Tasman Metals Nora Karr Rare Earth Metals Project Excites Investors
I USA har man selskapet MolyCorp og forekomsten i Mountain Pass/the rockies..). selskapet har gått konkurs og USA som militærmakt er i skikkelig klemme mtp. militære droner og er avhengig av REE fra Kina.
Forhenv. statsminister Gerhardsen fikk til en avtale med USA og utvinning av Niob grunnstoffet i FEN for å bygge kampfly (etter den 2. verdenskrig). Kan bli et nytt moment her.
FEN er et spennende område. Man har hatt gruvevirksomhet her i forhistorisk tid. Og ulikt alle andre områder hvor man finner verdifulle mineraler så ligger disse langt ute i ødemarken. Mtp. utbygging, ligger FEN i nærområdet med all tilgjengelighet til offentlig infrastruktur.
|Denne videoen fra youtube.com var det som fikk min nysgjerrighet inn i dette.
REE - Rare earth elements.
Videoen gir en innføring i om hva REE er og hva den vestlige verden står overfor når den grønne energirevolusjon griper fatt
|Her fra NHOs årskonferanse - "Made in Norway" og innslag fra NGU - Norges geologiske undersøkelse
Kan være starten på et nytt industrieventyr
Telemark som fylke har en lang historie i industriutviklingen for Norge. Kanskje er det på tide å revitalisere dette og med tanken på et nytt industri eventyr. Fylkesgeolog Dahlgren har fått midler fra regjeringen og at man nå skal bore temmelig dypt. Interessant fordi området er en utdødd vulkan og da har man en størknet magmakollonne .. bore dypt og temmelig dypt og fantasiverdiene blir en lek med tall !
Når regjeringen legger frem sitt reviderte statsbudsjett på torsdag inneholder det en bevilgning på åtte millioner til kartlegging av mineralforekomster i Fensfeltet, noe som kan bli starten på et nytt industrieventyr med utspring i Telemark.
|Dette blåses nok opp helt til de (igjen) finner ut at forekomstene også inneholder (for mye) uran og thorium.
|Høy radioaktiv stråling i Fensfeltet
Alle verdens REE gruver er koplet til thorium så den saken kommer ikke overraskende. Det er graden av thorium som er avgjørende for en utvinningsprosess.
FEN feltet kontrolleres i hovedsak av Cappelen i den nordlige sone mens selskapet REE Minerals kontollerer den sydlige sone "Fensmyra". Det er dette selskapet som har gjennomført boreundersøkelser og estimater på 500 mrd. verdier i bakken. Forekomsten er godt dokumentert http://reeminerals.no/press/ og dokumenter er kvalitetssikret av geologer i Danmark og selskapet North21. Det er i denne sonen (Fensmyra) at graden av thorium er lavest.
Jeg kjenner godt til selskapet siden jeg har vært aksjonær der siden 2013.
Dagens melding fra regjeringen er noe som vil sette fart på dette. Dahlgren har intensjoner om å få rekkevidden i denne ressursen men når sant skal sies og ut fra hva vi vet så vil grunnlaget skape virksomhet for gruvedrift > 100 år om man tar høyde for utvinning av 10.000 tonn sjeldne jordarter (REE) pr. år. Verdens produksjon (Kina 95%) er på 120.000 tonn.
Og det er Kina som kontrollerer dette markedet. Med satsingen fremover og den grønne revolusjon så kommer vesten i en knipe og avhengigheten her. Det er forventet at Kina selv vil være avhengig av alt landet er i stand til å produsere. Og det militære aspektet er vel så viktig (droner). USA som militærmakt kommer i en skikkelig knipe og avhengigheten til Kina.
Europa har ingen REE produserende gruve.
Endret 10.05.2017 17:41 av Provence
|Alle odds for å være involvert i gruvesektoren ut fra et historisk perspektiv er temmelig dårlige. Senest og med Northland Resources (NAUR) som gikk dundrende konkurs. Selv ledelsen hadde gjort innsidekjøp men kalkyler og forarbeid som fundamentalt sviktet. Kan skje i de beste sammenhenger. Men når vi snakker om NAUR så var fundamentet jernmalm. Og der er det også mange konkurrenter man må forholde seg til.
Sjeldne jordarter er i en helt annen kategori hvor knappheten på disse metallene er fremtreden og få alternativer. I denne sammenheng snakker man sågar om gruvedrift på havbunnen (!) for å understreke poenget.
I påsken viste BBC et innslag fra et engelsk selskap som hadde gjort undersøkelser på havbunnen ved Tenerife. 1000 meters dybde ! Også ukontrollerbare konsekvenser mht. det marine liv og i en utvinningssammenheng.
Renewables' deep-sea mining conundrum
Kan godt være at gehalten av sjeldne mineraler her er så mye høyere enn på land og det må til for å i det hele forsvare et slikt konsept.
Fra artikkelen ..Samples brought back to the surface contain the scarce substance tellurium in concentrations 50,000 times higher than in deposits on land.
Gehalten av det edle som man er ute etter kan aldri bli høyere enn 100%. Så referansegrunnlaget på land må da være 100%/50.000 =>0,002%
På land og ressurser man snakker om, er gehalten rundt 1%
Endret 11.05.2017 14:23 av Provence
|Hvis det fremdeles er for høy radioaktivitet (noe som sikkert skal undersøkes på nytt), så hjelper det ikke at det ikke er REE-produserende gruver i Europa.
Norge (inkl.Sverige) og for høye grenseverdier er lik ikke aktuelt likevel, men du må gjerne prospektere deg "ihjel" i mellomtiden.
All grunn til å være skeptisk til dette. Men man skal heller ikke overdrive dette. I linken du viste til så må man også ta hensyn til i hvilken kontekst dette dras inn i. For meg så var dette et innspill til beboerne som har hus der og hele tiden vil være eksponert for radongass etc.
I gruvesammenheng, snakker man om en arbeidsplass. For moderne gruvedrift er ikke basert på at man drar ned i gruven med hakker og spett (!). Moderne gruvedrift er basert på tunge maskiner (boremaskiner og transport "Caterpillere"). I rimelig grad beskyttet av selve cock pitten hvor man sitter i et metallbur og styreredskapen.
Slik jeg ser det, er ressursen i en rimelig fremskytt posisjon og mye er faktisk dokumentert.
Endret 11.05.2017 15:24 av Provence
|Jeg er fullstendig klar over dette Provence!
Det var en gang... et svensk prospektering-selskap som undersøkte et felt i Sverige som het Olserum - Olserum ble også omtalt som et av Europas største forekomster av REE (Sverige har forresten mye REE!) - men så viste det seg (til slutt) at halten av uran oversteg verdiene for forsvarlig utvinning.
Tasman Metals (som i sin tid overtok Olserum) har også et felt som heter Norra Karr ("Tasman's Norra Karr heavy REE project in Sweden is the only one on the European mainland, with a capacity to sustainably supply Europe's needs for decades."), men det er dessverre ikke så enkelt når alt kommer til alt.
Endret 11.05.2017 16:02 av tas1
|Oh yes, mye der .. les tilbake i tråden ! Norra Kærr til ekspempel!
I denne nyheten om regjeringen som bevilger 8 millioner i regi fylkesgeolog Dahlgren, var dette en særdeles oppløftende melding. Jeg har noen skyts på tråden "Hven f.. skal vi stemme på?" Spissformulering men jeg er begeistret over det politiske engasjement som bidrar til at dette kommer til å bli noe veldig stort.
Initiativ fra statlig hold er hva saken dreier seg om. På slutten av 60 tallet var det Jens Evensen som sikret grunnlaget for dagens velferdssamfunn og ressursene i Nordsjøen. En politiker (AP) second to none
Dahlgren er en fylkesgeolog i Telemark uten kommersielle interesser så langt hva jeg ser men som en statlig forlengelse i å sikre verdier.
Med utsiktene til Fen og som eier gjennom i et selskap som har vært bidragsytende til at denne forekomsten kommer på dagsorden, ønsker jeg at staten kommer på banen og sikrer disse verdiene på vegne av felleskapet.
Endret 11.05.2017 17:08 av Provence
Hva er grenseverdien for uran i Norge vedr. bearbeiding/drift, og hva er verdien (ikke radon) for Fensfeltet?
|Jeg vet simpethen ikke, surprise ?
Uran i en cocktail og i Fensfeltet er veldig lav ref. rapporter. Lav ? hmm
|Grenseverdien i Sverige er 200 ppm (Olserum som jeg nevnte ovenfor hadde en verdi på 258 ppm, og dermed overskred feltet verdien for kommersiell utvinning).
Jeg vil tro (uten at jeg vet) at grenseverdien ikke er høyere i Norge.
I 2008 sa forresten Dahlgren følgende om Fensfeltet; "Dette kan ikke gjøres av mennesker, men må gjøres av roboter. Gruvedrift på thorium vil også innebære store helse- og miljømessige utfordringer for lokalsamfunnet, sier Dahlgren, som mener dette må undersøkes nærmere."
Utfordringen er mao. ikke å finne REE, men å utvinne det.
|Mht. linken med tas1 og stålingskartet.. tar da utgangspunkt i gradientene mht. strålingsintensiteten her og plassering her ifm. hva REE Minerals foretar seg
Selskapet REE Minerals har gjennomført to kampanjer og drilling.
Første drilling 2012 ga estimat for 500.000 tonn REE
Andre drilling periode 2015 ga et utvidet estimat på 2 mill tonn.
Med utvidet horison, hva da ?
Alt hva REE Minerals har foretatt seg så langt så er det vesentlige, man kjenner ikke til randsonene til denne forkomsten Open ended in all directions..
I bildet over drilling så forekommer boreaktiviteten seg som horisontal. Men dette er en projeksjon for man setter ikke boret vertikalt i grunnen men med innfelt bilde og boremaskinen, er det en en vinkling på 45 grader i en hensikt på å få frem et tverssnitt på forekomsten horisontal kombinert med dybde scenarioet. Dette er fysiske begrensninger ut fra et observasjonssynspunkt og i en hensikt å få optimal informasjon
Endret 11.05.2017 18:59 av Provence
|Okay, så den men artikkelen er hentet ut fra 2008 ?
Thoriumgruve gir farlig stråling
Blir mye snakk om ord her og forestillinger med Dahlgren som en advarende pekefinger, likevel er det viktig for han å få dette videre inn et nasjonalt perspektiv. Eventyrlig muligheter ligger der men hvordan skal man tolke hans advarende utsagn?
Journalister sin vinkling ?
I all oppvask så kommer det frem at opprinnelig argumentator for det hele ikke mente det sånn. Alt for journalistens fortolkning.
Noe her henger simpelthen ikke på en greip !
Endret 11.05.2017 20:43 av Provence
I linken som du viser til i ditt #9692, så står det følgende:
Regiongeolog for Buskerud, Telemark og Vestfold fylkeskommuner, Sven Dahlgren visste ikke om nyhetene i forkant av pressekonferansen.
- Dette var overraskende. Jeg ble invitert for å holde et nytt foredrag om hvorfor vi skal gjøre dette, men så kom jeg hit og får beskjed om at de har tenkt å bevilge pengene.
Dahlgren viste altså ikke om dette på forhånd (fordi han hadde advart tidligere om at verdiene var for høye?) + at han ble overrasket.
I linken din sier han også; "Nå kan vi pirke litt mer i materien og virkelig få en ide om hvorvidt dette er tilfelle eller om det er et luftslott, sier regiongeologen."
Jeg sier ikke at dette er et luftslott e.l. men jeg sier at det ikke nødvendigvis er så enkelt som overskriften sier (at det kan være starten på et nytt industrieventyr) - fordi gruvevirksomhet i Norge (og Sverige for den saks skyld) dessverre ofte ender som "eventyr".
Eks: I Sverige (Nordens gruveland) så kunngjøres det ca. 200 nye letetillatelser i året, men det er til tross for dette bare 16 gruver i drift (ifølge Bergstaten).
|Tasman Metals endret forresten navn i 2016 til Leading Edge Materials, men de har ikke lenger Olserum i sin portefølje (men de holder fast ved Norra Karr).
I 2013 meddelte Tasman Metals følgende; Tasman Submits Mining Lease Application over Olserum Heavy Rare Earth Element Project, Sweden - men jeg kan ikke se at verdien på uran er nevnt.
Dette viste de selvsagt om (eller de burde vite det), for i 2007 meddelte daværende eier at Höga uranhalter stoppar gruvdrift .
"Uranhalten är 258 ppm, vilket överskrider gränsen 200 ppm. Detta komplicerar tillståndsprocessen."
Har så dette noe med Fensfeltet å gjøre? Nei, men det kan likevel ha sin relevans når det kommer til stråleverdier m.m.
|.. følger deg så langt inntil ..fordi han hadde advart tidligere om at verdiene var for høye
Okay du leser hva som formidles til oss utenforstående og jeg er der. Hva Dahlgren formidler er mht. alle dimesjoner i dette og journalistene ikke får med seg alt.
En bekreftelse på at samfunnet vårt styres på en transparent strategi.. uten korrupsjon.
Flott å være en tilhenger til dette samfunnet !
Du får tro hva som helst, dette er ikke min sak. Dokumetnasjonsgrunnlaget er der mht. REE Minerals!
Endret 11.05.2017 22:13 av Provence
|Skjønner ikke hvorfor du baldrer rundt med Tasman Metals. Har du ikke fått med deg historien her eller leser du ikke tråden ?
Endret 11.05.2017 22:03 av Provence
|Jeg skrev; "fordi han hadde advart tidligere om at verdiene var for høye?"
Det var altså ett hypotetisk spørsmål - ikke en konklusjon.
Tråden heter "Mining, generell topic"!
Lykke til med investeringen (og hvis du virkelig lurer på noe... ikke les deg blind på overskrifter eller artikler fra NRK m.fl. - spør selskapet direkte). Jeg har også personlig fått "gruvejournalister" fra Finansavisen til å måtte dementere innlegg, så du gjør rett i å ta det disse skriver med en klype salt.
Nå skal jeg ikke baldre mer (siden det tydeligvis irriterer deg og det kommende industrieventyret;)
Endret 11.05.2017 22:17 av tas1
|Ok, greit !
Skjønner du noe som helst om denne greia (?)
Du og jeg der vi satt på ventende og få oss over fjorden. "Ikkje kjøyr ombord i ferga før eg har sagt noko om det (fergedirekøren)".
No kjøyr over ..
Endret 12.05.2017 01:04 av Provence
|"Lykke til med investeringen (og hvis du virkelig lurer på noe... ikke les deg blind på overskrifter eller artikler fra NRK m.fl. - spør selskapet direkte)"
Ikke har du fått med deg at jeg faktisk har vært inne i selskapet siden 2013.
Leser du ikke noe som helst på fora ?
|Ha .. stocktalk et dusteforum !