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Marine Subsea (tidligere African Offshore)
drexel
11.07.2007 17:06
#570

Endre
Africa Offshore / Marine Subsea:

Spennende sensyklisk selskap i en sektor som i alle fall jeg mener det er for lite fokus på foreløpig, nemlig well intervention. Tror dette kan bli en svært lønnsom nisje i oljeservicemarkedet. MSAS Har nå kontrahert to skip hos Ulstein, totalt fem lektere hos Yantai. Selskapet sikter mot en børsnotering i fjerde kvartal 2007. Hovedpunkter fra en fersk PA update inkluderer:

AOS / Marine Subsea (AOSA): Well positioned for further expansion

– Major shareholders have excellent track record in West Africa and strong local partners

– Will grow the company backed by local partners

– Note that Africa Offshore Services will change its name to Marine Subsea

– The company has initiated 2 light well intervention units under construction

–Late cyclical market (maintenance of an installed base)

– Start-up 4Q09 and 4Q10

–Sonangol guarantees EBITDA of at least $26m for 10 years on first unit (assumed to take 25% ownership in that unit)

– Estimated annual EBITDA of $49m (100% basis)

– Capex/EBITDA <4x for AOS

– Shortage of vessel capacity: will take the peak of the market with very little residual value risk

– Start-up 4Q07 – 3Q08

– Barge #1 LOI for 18 months at EV/EBITDA 2.1x, barge #2 LOI for 2-3 years at EV/EBITDA 1.5x

Konklusjonen i oppdateringen: BUY / target NOK 25 (from NOK 20)

– Very cheap at EV/EBITDA 4.3x 2010E & 2.7x 2011E

–Target $4.1 / NOK 25 (equals EV/EBITDA 5.1x 2010E)

Aksjen var sist omsatt for 16 kr.


[Endret 11.07.07 17:06 av drexel]
[Endret 11.07.07 17:07 av drexel]



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